# w_comment

created: 2004-12-05 15:03:20
subject: <b>So...</b>
body:
Guttering Flame: Farstrider is putting himself into the prophesies, eh?<br /><br />Gandalfia: I'm not willing to bet much on this (since I can't fully grasp the intricasies of english grammar) but by the way it was phrased, &quot;Fortune&quot; is a subject, an agent /actor, of the first line, and &quot;The Fox&quot; is another actor. (please also note that it's &quot;the&quot; Fox, as in a specific fox. Much like el Zorro/Zorro is not just another fox in the woods. The only &quot;the fox&quot; known to us is the Grey fox.)<br /><br />Fanatic templar: Thank you *curtsies*<br /><br />Windbiters finger: See Sharlea Quensit, who seems to have caught the idea.<br /><br />(as always, my answers are in backward order.)<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">The only way to convince me is by providing some evidence!</font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-06 03:20:49
subject: <b>Definetly</b>
body:
Never thought of it before, but it does make sense. Thom&#180;s known as &quot;the grey fox&quot;, isnt he?


created: 2004-12-06 12:41:57
subject: <b>Heiti's grammatical analysis is dead on.</b>
body:
Fortune is indeed the subject of the first sentence, while the fox is the object of a preposition.  It makes Fortune the main focus of the passage, with he/his most likely referring back to Fortune as an antecedent.  The one thing that I didn't particularly like about this theory is the redundancy in essentially saying that luck is Fortune's soul, because both luck and fortune <i>can</i> mean the same thing.  That's easily overcome by applying a different meaning to Fortune, however, because it could also refer to wealth.  Since wealth is also a very good descriptor for Mat, I find myself agreeing that this is a very viable alternate interpretation for this bit of prophecy.  Good job!<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1"><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/aessedai.gif" border="0" /> Diomedes <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/baalzamon.gif" border="0" /></font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-06 13:50:12
subject: <b>Not convinced</b>
body:
I think construing &quot;Fortune&quot; as a person simply puts too much stress on the word.  As has been pointed out, fortune refers merely to Mat's luck.  As has also been pointed out, Mat will give up half the light of the world - the light of the world is comprised of the sun and the moon.  Matt is thus intimately connected with the sun, as well as the moon.<br /><br />I may not convince those of you who are in the Thom camp, but the fox/raven connection fits Mat perfectly.  You have his medallion, his ring, and, furthermore, everything the theory says about Thom can be equally applied to Mat.<br /><br />Moreover, we don't see many other hangers-on appearing in prophecy.  Where are Min, Elayne, Aviendha, Faile, etc.?  When a friend-type appears in prophecy, it's fairly obvious, ie Aram.<br /><br />Thus, there is no reason that &quot;Fortune&quot; should refer to Thom.  Mat is the lucky one.  Also, Mat is the fox - yes, Thom is called the &quot;Grey Fox,&quot; but Cairhien is also ruled from the Sun Throne.  But beyond that, there is no other real connection to the prophecy.<br /><br />TFK


created: 2004-12-06 17:45:33
subject: <b>Thom is cool; but this does not refer to the &quot;Grey&quot; Fox</b>
body:
Fortune rides like the sun on high <br />with the fox that makes the ravens fly. <br />Luck his soul, lightning his eye, <br />He snatches the moons from out of the sky.<br /><br />Fortune rides  - a person place or thing is moving.<br />Like the sun on high  -  The person place or thing is emotionally high? The person place or thing is physically high?  The person place or thing is figuratively high? <br />I think I&#8217;ll take the figuratively option, the person place or thing is riding high and is hot.<br /><br />With the fox -  with a person place or thing that is referred to as &#8220;Fox&#8221;.   So a person place or thing &#8220;Fortune&#8221; is with a person place or thing &#8220;Fox&#8221;.<br />That makes the ravens fly &#8211; Fortune coupled with the Fox makes the ravens fly.  We all agree the ravens represent the Seanchan.<br /><br />So if &#8220;fortune&#8221; and &#8220;fox&#8221; are a person place or thing it could be something like this:<br />Mat (Fo<img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/moiraine.gif" border="0" /> with his luck (fortune) coming in real strong, makes the Seanchan start moving in a quick unknown direction.<br /><br />Luck his soul &#8211; come on I can not think of anybody else in the book who if you hear the word &#8220;Luck&#8221; Mat isn&#8217;t around or the subject of the scene.<br /><br />Lightning is eye &#8211; This is open for interpretation.  Could it refer to Mat inventing gun powder or giving up half the light to save the world.   It could be referring to something that hasn&#8217;t happened yet.  It could be referring to something with the Sul'dam which has lightning as a symbol on their dresses.  I&#8217;m sure there are theories on this, but I can not recall.<br />He snatches the moons from the sky &#8211; A person place or thing takes the person place or thing (moons &#8211; plural) out of that nouns natural environment.<br /><br /><br />Mat (Fo<img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/moiraine.gif" border="0" /> with his luck (fortune) coming in real strong, gets even luckier and takes Tuon out of her palace with out anybody knowing what happened.  This caused the Seanchan to start scrambling in all directions to find her.<br /><br />Basically the whole thing is describing Mat in multiple ways, taking Tuon.  Some people would know him because he is lucky; some people would know him because of what he does in the future (lightning his eye).   <br /><br />I like Thom and think he is a cool cat, I know he was known as the Grey Fox.  But I do not think he is bad enough to be in a Prophesy given who knows how long ago.  <br />


created: 2004-12-06 21:37:11
subject: <b>MAYBE</b>
body:
Remember in TEOTW Min tell Rand that others, such as Perrin, Matt, Nyneave, Egwene, Moiraine, Lan, and THOM; are all &quot;part of it&quot;<br />Now I haven't had a chance to read the White Book, (not one book store in Atlanta ever seems to stock it) so I don't know if the Prophecies are there in it's entirety.<br />She may have meant by &quot;it&quot; that they are all part of the struggle against the Dark One, or that they are perhaps all mentioned somewhere in the prophecies<br />Yeah I know this sounds pretty far-fetched even to me, but since Min sees little things such as weddings, wouldn't she something as large as the greatest prophecy ever that many Fortellings have been made about?


created: 2004-12-06 22:33:22
subject: <b>Its about both of them</b>
body:
As has been pointed about above, the key word is WITH, this clearly implies twp entities, and as the rest is very much Mat, then I conclude that its about both THom and Mat.<br /><br />Good theory.


created: 2004-12-07 06:51:23
subject: <b>I suppose it's possible....</b>
body:
if only because Jordan seems to keep pairing up Mat with Thom throughout the series. <br /><br />My own feeling was that it was only about Mat though, when I first read it. Still, I am not too quick to dismiss your interpretation either. The way it's written, I doubt we will be able to say for sure one way or another. However, here's a conversation Thom had with Elayne on the Wavedancer when they left Tear:<br /><br />&quot;I was talking of change. My epic, if I compose it-and Loial's book-will be no more than seed, if we are both lucky. Those who know the truth will die, and their grandchildren's grandchildren will remember something different. And <i>their</i> grandchildren's grandchildren something else again. Two dozen generations, and you may be the hero of it, not Rand.&quot;<br /> &quot;Me?&quot; she laughed.<br />&quot;Or maybe Mat, or Lan. Or even myself.&quot; He grinned at her, warming his weathered face. &quot;Thom Merrilin. Not a gleeman-but what? Who can say? Not eating fire, but breathing it. Hurling it about like an Aes Sedai.&quot; He flourished his cloak. &quot;Thom Merrilin, the mysterious hero, toppling mountains and raising up kings.&quot; The grin became a rich belly laugh. &quot;Rand al'Thor may be lucky if the next Age remembers his name correctly.&quot;<br /><br />So, it comes down to the old Ages-to-legends-to-myth scenario. Maybe he is the one that is referred to, or perhaps he will later be remembered that way. Either way, RJ has covered the bases.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">Where once was Shadow<br /> Now reigns <b>Light</b><br /> Darkness fades<br /> <b>In</b>to <b>the Night</b><br /><br />Wotmania's Theory Post has the most!<br />Submit one of your own today <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/jordan.gif" border="0" /><br /><br />Wotmania's richest Wotmaniac!</font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-07 18:57:36
subject: <b>&quot;What the UEG said&quot;</b>
body:
I'll take this oppotunity to see if I'm really learning anything (please, DO tell me if I'm wrong grammaticly) :<br />Now, for anyone who keeps claiming Fortune is a place or a thing... <br /><br />I'll take to my grammar book <br />(Johansson/Lysv&#229;g Understanding English Grammar 1)<br />chapter 4<br /><br /><u>There are different kind of Subjects:</u><br />1. agentive subject = &quot;the <b>wilful</b> initiator of an action&quot; - He killed Renna. Fortune rides like the sun on high<br />2. experiencer subject = the subject feels/ecperiences something - I feel the pressure on me. <br />3. instrumental subject = &quot;the inanimate force or instrument causing something to happen&quot; - Balefire destroyed the inn.<br />4. affected subject = &quot;the participant is affected by the action denoted by the verb&quot; - Saidin as been cleansed.<br />5. locative subject = The clause says something about/refers to a place - Saldaea is cold in the winter.<br />6. temporal subject = The clause refers to a time - Tomorrow will be a long day.<br />7. eventive subject = &quot;The clause refers to an event&quot; - Bel Tine was only a week away. <br />8. empty subject = (no subject, but one is required, uses non-referential &quot;it&quot;<img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/wink.gif" border="0" /> - It rains.<br /><br />So, does anyone still claim &quot;Fortune&quot; is NOT an agentive Subject? <br />If you do, please tell me what kind of subject it is,so that I can start afresh and learn it correctly this time.<br /><br /><u>Some further (non-relevant?) analysis</u><br />The subjects are used in different clause patterns. The one we have here looks like SPA(A) or SP(AA), depending on whether the adverbials are seen a obligatory or optional to convey the core meaning of the clause.<br /><br />Fortune rides like the sun on high <br />Subject: Fortune<br />Predicate: rides<br /><br />Adverbial of manner (adjunct): like the sun<br /><br />Adverbial of place (adjunct): on high<br /><br />According to UEG, SPA clauses usually anwer the question &quot;Where/when is S?&quot; And especially &quot;where&quot; can be used metaphoricly. SP clauses answer &quot;What does S do?&quot;<br /><br /><i>Everyone allready agrees Fox is an agent, right? <br />I don't really have to do the same for &quot;Fox&quot;, do I? <br />This stuff is exhausting. </i><br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">The only way to convince me is by providing some evidence!</font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-07 19:38:34
subject: <b>Highly Unlikely</b>
body:
I believe it is highly unlikely that the second line is in reference to Thom.  <br /><br /><b> Mat vs. Thom </b><br />The first, third, and fourth line are definitely in reference to Mat.  Does it seem like a great idea for a verse of prophecy to make a reference to Thom in one line of a four line stanza?  I do not think it likely...<br /><br />But let us suppose that this is a likely thing.  Still, in order for us to make that supposition, it would be fair to think as such:  <br /><br />&quot;Well, alright, so the rest of the poem is about Mat.  That doesn't really mean that the second line can't be about Thom.  But the connection should be certain and strong.&quot;<br /><br />Let me be a bit presumptious and restate the theory:<br /><br />The case for Thom<br />=================<br />*Moiraine's reference to him as the Gray Fox<br />*Seanchan troops, some of whom bear the raven as symbol, move on a suspicion of Thom<br /><br />The case for Mat<br />================<br />*He has a foxhead medallion<br />*He has a raven spear<br />*He has a signet ring on which are two crescent moons surrounding a depiction of a fox, chasing two ravens<br /><br />As you can probably see, all of the connections to Mat are very direct, while the connections to Thom definitely are a stretch and require some measure of imagination.  This in itself is not a nail in the coffin, but a setback for the theory.<br /><br />Additionally:  If Robert Jordan indeed intended for Thom to be the one referred two in that line, wouldn't it have made a lot more sense for Thom to have that ring?  Not only would it have not made sense for Mat to have it, but it would be a blatant challenge to the prophecy itself.<br /><br /><b> Implications of the Case for Thom </b><br /><br />If indeed it is Thom who is the fox that makes the ravens fly, there are implications for the rest of the poem.<br /><br />*Fortune rides now with Thom instead of Mat.  Now, you could argue that &quot;Fortune&quot; is Mat.  But to make that argument, you would probably have to figure out what Mat has to do with the Sun, because if &quot;Fortune&quot; is not just a capitalized word, and indeed represents Mat, that line itself needs to be analyzed in context.<br /><br />If fortune however is just fortune, it makes a lot of sense for a high degree of fortune to be riding with Mat (who would be the fo<img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/moiraine.gif" border="0" />.  <br /><br />*The poem is separated into two sentences.  The second sentence refers to a 'him.'  If the fox is Mat, we see the signet ring draws the fox, moons, and ravens all together in one, almost like a symbol of prophecy in itself.  Very well sewn together.<br /><br />Alright, that's all I have on it at this time.  Fox is definitely Mat. <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/wink.gif" border="0" /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />


created: 2004-12-08 12:07:23
subject: <b>To Heiti</b>
body:
I claim that Fortune is not an agentive subject.  First of all, the text you're parsing is prophecy and is rendered in intentionally metaphorical terms.  You're putting far too much weight on a literal grammatical analysis.  Rather, I think this is much closer to an instrumental subject.  To argue otherwise requires every metaphor to have an actual agent when used in an active sentence.  <br /><br />Compare two popular songs - &quot;Luck Be a Lady&quot; performed by Frank Sinatra and &quot;Dude Looks Like a Lady&quot; by Aerosmith.  In the latter song, Aerosmith is describing a man dressed as a woman.  The title subject, &quot;Dude,&quot; is clearly agentive.  However, in the former, Sinatra is singing about an abstract concept, &quot;Luck,&quot; and his wish that it would take on certain characteristics he attributes to women.  It should be clear that there is no &quot;Luck&quot; agent sitting in the next room.  Yet &quot;being&quot; is clearly an agentive act.  Luck is very clearly an inanimate force and is thus an instrumental subject.  <br /><br />It should be clear that this grammatical analysis breaks down when applied to non-literal communication.  The simplest interpretation, IMHO, of the disputed clause is that Mat has Fortune, or Luck, on his side, just as people were always telling Luke Skywalker, &quot;May the Force be with you.&quot;<br /><br /><br />TFK<br /><br /><br />Then again, if Thom is Fortune, I think Egeanin should know.  She should be made aware of just who is pricking Bayle all the time.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Heiti wrote:<br /><br />There are different kind of Subjects:<br />1. agentive subject = &quot;the wilful initiator of an action&quot; - He killed Renna. Fortune rides like the sun on high<br /><br />3. instrumental subject = &quot;the inanimate force or instrument causing something to happen&quot; - Balefire destroyed the inn.<br />


created: 2004-12-09 21:43:04
subject: <b>Both Mat and Thom</b>
body:
this is the way i sum it up.<br /><br />Fortune rides like the sun on high <br />this refers to Mat, as we know he has a lot of fortune and the Sun on High means his luck is running high.<br /><br />with the fox that makes the ravens fly.<br />this refers to Thom helping out Mat inadvertently loosening the deathwatch guards.<br /><br />Luck his soul, <br />Luck his soul, is self explainitary.<br /><br />lightning his eye,<br />This i think refers to the sul'dam that was with him when he escaped with TDotNM, because they have lightning on there clothing and they were watching out for him<br /><br />He snatches the moons from out of the sky.<br />This also refers to Mat getting TDotNM away.<br /><br />If you'll notice the 1st, 3rd and 4th lines always refers to HE or HIS, whilst the 2nd line is about someone else completely different because it says &quot;WITH the fox that makes the ravens fly.&quot;<br /><br />Cheers, <br />Demon <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/devil.gif" border="0" /><br /><br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">Cheers,<br />Demon</font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-10 19:44:31
subject: <b>Mat's the Fox me thinks</b>
body:
Fox memories<br />Fox Medallion<br />Fox Signet Ring<br />Tylin to Mat &quot;the trouble with having a pet fox. Is that sooner or later it remembers it is a fox&quot;<br />Talmanes is in charge of the Band when Mat's away. His banner is a Black Fox.<br /><br />Plus the word 'luck'..enough said  <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/smile.gif" border="0" />


created: 2005-02-17 19:01:47
subject: <b>the fox</b>
body:
I think that if the poem refered to Thom, it would specifically refer to him as the &quot;grey fox&quot;.<br /><br />&quot;Fortune rides like the sun on high&quot;-lots of luck<br />&quot;with the fox that makes the ravens fly&quot;-with Mat, who's going to be responsible for staying the Seachan advance<br />&quot;luck his soul, lightning his eye&quot;-he has a tendancy to rely on his luck, and quick reflexes/planning<br />&quot;he snatches the moons from out of the sky&quot;-Tuon<br />That's my interpretation


created: 2005-09-05 21:01:05
subject: <b><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/mat.gif" border="0" /></b>
body:
not <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/thom.gif" border="0" /> <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/crazy.gif" border="0" /><br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">Sister to Nossy<br />Shot swapper with a_fan <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/wink.gif" border="0" /><br />Bonded to Phil Reborn and Sidious<br />&quot;Mommies are like wizards&quot; ~ CVH <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/approve.gif" border="0" /><br />The fact that I don't agree with you in no way means I didn't understand you.</font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-04 21:44:48
subject: <b>Very interesting</b>
body:
You left out the prologue in FoH, where Rahvin is prepared to Travel if he even senses balefire.  He was thinking about this with both a male &amp; female channelers in the room, and since he didn't freak out when he felt Sammael gathering the Power to strike at Lanfear and Graendal, it can be assumed he was anticipating one of the weaker and unlinked women lashing out with the best weapon possible for fighting someone as much stronger as Rahvin and Sammael were.<br /><br />I think, though, that what people sense is the damage to the Pattern balefire does.  There are other instances of channelers detecting unnatural things that have nothing to do with the One Power (Fain, Shadar Logoth, Darkfriends, Shadowspawn), and as their five senses are enhanced while holding the Power, it stands to reason that other senses, including perhaps some innate awareness of the Pattern that all people have might be enhanced as well.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">Cannoli<br />&quot;I'm German-Irish&quot; - Tom Hagen<br />&#8220;There is no safety for honest men, except by believing all possible evil of evil men&quot; - Edmund Burke<br /><b>Inde muagdhe Aes Sedai misain ye!</b><br />Deus vult!</font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-04 21:49:12
subject: <b>Bravo. <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/aiel.gif" border="0" /></b>
body:
I agree with your reasoning and follow up facts.  Nice presentation.<br /><br />We're in agreement with the whole pitfall thing because she had tried to torch Rahvin and failed, causing her to panic at the time.<br /><br />It must take some type of concentration to be able to feel balefire.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">Shadar Aiel<br /><br /><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/aessedai.gif" border="0" />One by one the seals shatter and break.<img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/aessedai.gif" border="0" /><br /><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/darkone.gif" border="0" />Pace by pace the darkness shall advance<img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/darkone.gif" border="0" /><br /><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/aiel.gif" border="0" />&#8216;till only those Dedicated to the Shadow remain.<img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/aiel.gif" border="0" /><br /></font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-05 02:09:46
subject: <b>Very good.</b>
body:
One of the more interesting balefire-related theories I've read.  I don't think anyone has mentioned the fact that men and women seem to be able to sense the balefire of the other until now.  Very interesting.  <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/aessedai.gif" border="0" /><br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">&quot;Who we were is lost to all men, and life is bitter.&quot;<br />&quot;Expect nothing, and you will not be surprised.&quot;  <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/aessedai.gif" border="0" /></font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-05 02:19:59
subject: <b>I'm gonna disagree.</b>
body:
Personally, I think it all has to do with the distortions to the pattern. The TP rips it to work, balefire burns away its threads... channelers sense this because the OP drives the WoT, which is what spins the agelace, aka the pattern.<br /><br />IMO...<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">Warder to Be'lal's Girl<br />Wotmania Lottery<br /><br /><br /><br />&quot;Meh. A good relationship is like fireworks: loud, explosive, and liable to maim you if you hold on too long.&quot; ~ Sven, Questionable Content<br /><br />Bonded by Sidious. <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/flamingsword.gif" border="0" /></font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-05 15:10:00
subject: <b>Agreed.</b>
body:
Both sexes can apparently feel the Balefire, and sense it's residue, allthough I'm not sure your theory proves &quot;how&quot; beyond doubt. <br /><br />Another piece of evidence might be that Halima/Aran'gar hasn't used Balefire as far as I know. That would reveal her, wouldn't it? Perhaps your theory has revealed some of the RAFO-plot? <br /><br />About the pitfall: Nyn has a history of missing out on channeling when she's distracted. Also, I'm not sure whether she sensed the Balefire herself, or felt Moggy sensing it(?). The quotes are somewhat ambiguous about that.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">The only way to convince me is by providing some evidence!</font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-05 17:17:36
subject: <b>Hadn't noticed this before,</b>
body:
and at first glance I thought you might be on to something.  However, after reading Cannoli's response I can't help but think his reasoning might make a little more sense.  But hey, who knows.


created: 2004-12-05 19:53:18
subject: <b>Another point</b>
body:
I remember that at some point in either tFoH or LoC, not too long before Egwene went to Salidar, she talked to Rand, and he described how he Traveled. He said that he bored a hole in the pattern, and Egwene figured that if she did that something would go horribly wrong.<br /><br />Maybe Balefire does something along the lines of inverting saidar and saidin, like if Rand tried to channel by making two places similar, and Egwene tried bore a hole at the same time and place.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1"><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/aessedai.gif" border="0" /> Incantrix <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/aessedai.gif" border="0" /></font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-05 20:29:40
subject: <b>Could Help With The Asmodean Thing</b>
body:
Anyone else think about Asmodean's last words when reading this theory? &quot;You? No!&quot;. Similar to Be'lal's &quot;No!&quot; and such. I doubt someone would scream &quot;No!&quot; if someone drew a blade... I'd try to fend it off, but he must have sensed balefire and realized he had no chance.<br /><br />Well, sorry for that off topic post. Very good theory. Gave it a thumbs up. Will be interesting to see how the balefire collision from Rand and Moridin in Shadar Logoth will end up effecting them in the next two books. If anyone read the new Question of the Week at www.tor.com under Jordan, you'll notice that he said something along the lines of &quot;Moridin also was not present at the Cleansing, for reasons which will become clear in later books.&quot;. Hmm, sounds like Moridin is having some trouble.<br /><br />Ok, I'm going to stop before I end up going even more off topic. Good Theory!


created: 2004-12-06 11:35:58
subject: <b>Interesting...</b>
body:
This is a very good post. Also I wonder what this implies about Rands and the Wanderers/Moridins balefire touching each other in Shadar Logoth at the end of Sammaels life


created: 2004-12-06 14:04:55
subject: <b>It's the distortions...</b>
body:
I agree with the earlier posts arguing that channelers sense the distortions in the pattern, not the balefire itself.<br /><br />Balefire, as we know, reverses time slightly.  Thus any distortions made by balefire burning a thread, be it a person or an object, would actually occur before the balefire is used.  This would give the channeler witnessing it enough time to react before the balefire actually struck.<br /><br />In response to the claim that Nynaeve didn't feel when Rahvin was balefired because she was distracted, she was terrifed out of her mind when she ducked the balefire.  She would likely have been just as distracted then.<br /><br />But nice job - I had never thought of the opposite sexes being able to sense each other's balefire.<br /><br />TFK


created: 2004-12-06 14:31:21
subject: <b>thumbs up</b>
body:
i like it, it makes sense.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1"><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/flaminggrin.gif" border="0" /> let the speedbart ride again upon the winds of time <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/flaminggrin.gif" border="0" /><br /><br />Made the second post on the new WoTMB2 <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/approve.gif" border="0" /></font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-06 14:36:36
subject: <b>Be'lal's reaction.</b>
body:
I'm wondering if the ability to sense Balefire has less to do with similarities between Saidin and Saidar and the time reversal effect.  If you were to cease to exist prior to your actual time of death, you might 'see' it coming before it actually is.  Be'lal yelled, &quot;No!&quot; only seconds before he was burned out of the pattern, but later in Rhuidean after the Darkhound attack, Moiraine tells Rand that she had only enough power to burn Be'lal out of the pattern seconds prior to his death while Rand could burn them out days, weeks, or months prior.  So, I think Be'lal saw the Balefire in reverse, in a sense, since he was the target.  He saw his death prior to its occurrance because he was dead prior to his death.  Wierd and convoluted, I know.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">Questions, Comments, Thoughts?<br /><br />Geoff<br /><br />Artificial Intelligence <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/r2d2.gif" border="0" /> <br />is no match for<br />Natural Stupidity <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/jester.gif" border="0" /></font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-07 06:21:04
subject: <b>I have to agree with you</b>
body:
Be'lal certainly knew what was coming at him before it materialized, thus the reason for his apparent surprise. And with the scene Cannoli mentioned, it's obvious Rahvin could have sensed balefire being woven, or began to be woven as well, whether it was produced by saidin or saidar. And as you pointed out, the effects can be sensed by either sex, regardless of who produced it, too. <br /><br />Balefire is obviously an anomaly which the Pattern has trouble coping with. Something that is so detrimental to existence itself, is one of the reasons both sides feared using it.<br /><br />Another good theory, sidious! Thumbs up from me.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">Where once was Shadow<br /> Now reigns <b>Light</b><br /> Darkness fades<br /> <b>In</b>to <b>the Night</b><br /><br />Wotmania's Theory Post has the most!<br />Submit one of your own today <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/jordan.gif" border="0" /><br /><br />Wotmania's richest Wotmaniac!</font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-07 18:08:46
subject: <b>A paradox, perhaps?</b>
body:
The oneness of the power being used in weaving balefire disturbs the balance of Saidin/Saidar, which just happens to be what drives the Wheel in the first place.<br /><br />Maybe it's not the DO that's evil in himself, but the fact that his energy, TP, can be channeled by both men and women, disrupts the balance enough to break the wheel.<br /><br />Thus it would be the difference between male and female, so essential in new life being born, which is also the essential for rebirth and the wheel being able to weave on.<br /><br />(It's getting past midnight here and I'm way past philosophical.)<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">The only way to convince me is by providing some evidence!</font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-08 11:52:44
subject: <b>I'm missing the obvious...</b>
body:
I think one thing we've forgotten about Be'lal's death is that if the BF distorted the pattern before it was actually formed such that he could feel it, the he could also SEE THE BALEFIRE BEFORE IT WAS FORMED and know quite readily and non-mysteriously that he was toast.<br /><br />TFK


created: 2004-12-08 12:11:46
subject: <b>Good (and original) Theory, sidious</b>
body:
But, IMO, others above probably have it better defined.<br /><br />Your idea that the Pattern is altered fits best with the reactions of Be`lal (and Asmodean) that their threads were burned back before the balefire struck. They must have felt their death before they were dead.<br /><br />Rather than the others sensing the OP weave, why not it be a sense of the Pattern changed?<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">jofraz <br /><br />Egwene fanatic<br />&quot;Elaida will be removed one way or another&quot;.<br />The seeds are being planted and some have sprouted.<br />The end is near</font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-09 08:06:41
subject: <b>...but</b>
body:
In the scene with the Bowl of the Winds the Bowl begins to draw saidin and all the women in the circle notice that and it attracts their attention a lot. It is something very strange to feel saidin where only saidar is to be expected (or vice versa) and it couldn't miss cathcing the attention especially of trained channelers who know very well that &quot;a fich cannot teach a bird to fly&quot;.<br /><br />Now, if balefire uses the both halves of the Power, it would be sensed in all cases of observing balefire, and it would draw the attention of the channeler who is observing that, and so it would be very strange for such strange observation to be not mentioned in someone's PoV. <br /><br />Now some examples. Nynaeve during the battle between Rahvin and Rand is already mentioned. It was not only the last balefire that killed Rahvin, when she was prepared to die and supposedly wouldn't notice some secondary details. She have seen a lot of balefire beams before that last one during this battle, it was some period of time when Nynaeve had to move silently and to think a lot about the balefire sometime occuring around her and treatening her life. Nynaeve doesn't notice any presence of saidar in all that time.<br /><br />Another example: Nynaeve against Jeaine Caide with her balefire ter'angreal. Also lot of time for Nynaeve to hide while Jeaine is shooting and shooting and shooting. Meanwhile Nynaeve had time to notice e.g. how the cuendillar figurines are hit by the balefire but remain intact (i.e. Nynaeve is able to notice strange details). Nynaeve doesn't notice anything except saidar in this scene.<br /><br />Another example: In the Cleansing scene Osan'gar is beginning to weave balefire to throw it against Rand, when he is noticed by Elza Penfel and killed. We have Elza's PoV while doing it, and she would notice if a random asha'man is using saidar in his weave.<br /><br />Another example: When Moiraine is balefiring Be'lal, Rand is there and looking at what is happening, but Rand sees no saidin used by Moiraine's balefire.<br /><br />Another consideration is that Rand would definitely notice if there is something more than saidin involved in his balefire (especially in the more powerfull cases).<br /><br />There are too many examples of balefire used without such &quot;wrong&quot; half of the OP mentioned neither by the channeler nor by other observers.


created: 2004-12-09 13:45:15
subject: <b>Responses</b>
body:
To everyone with the distortion theory ... there is no evidence that weaves create any side effect before they have been woven completely. When weaving a fireball there is no heat until the weave is complete. The same applies to all weaves. Therefore I don't think it's acceptable to say that the Pattern is distorting as the weave is being created. It stands to reason that the effects only occur once the weave is complete and has been unleashed. The effects are also directly related to the threads which are burned. I do however , agree that Be'lal might have seen his death before it happened.<br /><br />To the above reponse (burned dragon?) ... you haven't grasped my theory. I clearly mention at one part that balefire doesn't draw both halves of the Source. It is eother saidin or saidar. Once woven it then resembles both so that a man or a woman can identify it. When Jeane Caide created balefire it was ONLY saidar and Nynaeve would only notice saidar. The point of theory is that opposite sexes can sense one another's balefire , and it has applied in every case up to now. If Sammael was there with Nynaeve he would have sensed balefire being woven , unlike any other weave of saidar (unless his skin tingled). You didn't read the theory properly , or you misread it.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">A One Power researcher<br />Defender of Lanfear<br />Grand Ninja-Nae'blis to be feared <br />Original Warder to Isa <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/smile.gif" border="0" /><br />New Warder to Nossie <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/biggrin.gif" border="0" /><br />Toy to Seriana <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/winky.gif" border="0" /><br />Mystified by a Fan <br />Bonded Phelix - I was young, it happened so fast.</font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-13 07:54:31
subject: <b>apologizes</b>
body:
I beg my apologizes for misreading Yor theory. Now I see, it has everything in it for me to understand it at the first time I read it. The different kind of change that different flows cause in the Pattern to be sensed differently - that makes sense.<br /><br />But I see another kind of problem. Before a weave is ready, it doesn't change the Pattern at all. Before a more complicated weave is ready, it is yet not defined what kind of effect it will have (or will it have any): so the weaves of the test for the shawl often can cause a different effect if made slightly wrong at the end. And the whole idea of balefire &quot;ressembling&quot; the type of action of the other half of OP was needed mainly for to explain cases like Be'lals when the balefire weave is identified before the weave is ready (and before it became to have any effect on the Pattern).<br /><br />


created: 2005-03-08 19:56:48
subject: <b>Damage to the pattern the cause of Rand's sickness?</b>
body:
When I was reading over this article I noted that sidious mentioned that perhaps when the True Power is used to affect the patter i.e. traveling or balefire, there is damage caused. Rand's sickness If im not mistaken started after his own weave of balefire struck Moridin's and the sickness's first symptom (double vision) first occured here. Could Rand's sickness be caused by damage to his thread? That I'll have to think on...<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">But trust is the color of a dark seed growing<br />Trust is the color of a heart's blood flowing<br />Trust is the color of a soul's last breath<br />Trust is the color of death<br /></font><p></p>


created: 2006-07-28 01:38:05
subject: <b>The slow-down effect</b>
body:
Maybe the feeling of the formation of Balefire is like that sudden calm to a naturally felt, naturally overlooked flow?  The moment that flow to the Pattern stops and the weave of Balefire begins, one that is sensitive enough to the normal flow realizes what is being done and can react?<br /><br />After Balefire is done, the Pattern is now missing a piece, and all the threads around it are slow to fill in, and that is what is felt by Channelers, since no normal people seem to sense it.


created: 2006-08-14 00:35:20
subject: <b>Something possible for his reaction in evidence #1</b>
body:
Another reason he could have yelled &quot;No!&quot; could also be because he thought she was taken care of. The porcupine ter'angreal was meant to trap her and not Fail. When he saw her maybe he was surprised, but also knew she was capable of balefire. I still agree with the rest of your theory.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">Proud Libertarian<br /><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/wheel.gif" border="0" /> You spin me right round baby right round <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/wheel.gif" border="0" /><br />The following sentence is true. The preceding sentence is false.<br />Truly great madness cannot be achieved without significant intelligence.<br />-Henrik Tikkanen</font><p></p>


created: 2007-07-31 08:07:30
subject: <b>Jepp</b>
body:
@Paulish agreeing with your comment, he maybe reconized the Angreal <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/smile.gif" border="0" /><br /><br />But well this theory still has its good side <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/biggrin.gif" border="0" />


created: 2004-12-06 06:08:05
subject: <b>Except that...</b>
body:
... all the Wise Ones (except the Shaido) are working towards a common goal: To make sure that the &quot;remnant of a remnant&quot; includes as many Aiel as possible.<br /><br />Apart from that, it's quite possible.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">The only way to convince me is by providing some evidence!</font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-06 12:02:45
subject: <b>One point...</b>
body:
The Aiel had formed their system with the Wise Ones before the AS joined their little caravan. At least, there was an informal system. When Rand is in Rhuiden, he sees through the eyes of his ancestors, and one of them (I think it was the first generation to have spent most of their life with the wagons) says that his wife dreams with the other women, and they guide the men. IIRC...<br /><br />I don't remember any of Rand's ancestors remembering an AS, excluding the one who was convinced Ishy was free, until the one who met with the AS who gave the Rhuiden Prophecy, with the Jenn Aiel.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">Warder to Be'lal's Girl<br />Wotmania Lottery<br /><br /><br /><br />&quot;Meh. A good relationship is like fireworks: loud, explosive, and liable to maim you if you hold on too long.&quot; ~ Sven, Questionable Content<br /><br />Bonded by Sidious. <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/flamingsword.gif" border="0" /></font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-06 12:32:31
subject: <b>Hmmm...</b>
body:
Good read.<br /><br /><b>Now we know that when the Aiel fled to the Waste during/after the breaking, they had Aes Sedai with them, who would have worked in the 'swirling sea of ajah'. It seems likely that the Wise ones were formed originally under the guidance of the female Aes Sedai accompanying the Aiel, who would have found any women among the Aiel capable of channeling (for pragmatic and compassionate reasons), and so it is probable that the Wise Ones inherited the system of ajah from these Aes Sedai</b><br /><br />I agree there seems to be a similarities between the working of the WO and the little we know of the organization of AS.  However, I would point something else as its origin - something the two groups have in common.<br /><br />The Aes Sedai who joined the Aiel (on the road) remained mostly isolated with those who became the &quot;Jenn&quot; - the Rhuidean chapters suggests that they had no contact with the &quot;Aiel&quot; until they called them to Rhuidean and presented to them the two ter'angreal they had built. If they shared any knowledge, it's with the Jenn group - and those all died. For years the AS believed that the &quot;Jenn&quot;, who remained like the AoL Aiel, were the ones who would fulfill the foretellings they had. Eventually they realized their mistakes and built the ter'angreal so that the other Aiel would know about their past.<br /><br />If the Aes Sedai had taught/trained others of the Wise Ones, they would have kept alive a myriad of AoL knowledge - stuff like Traveling etc. which would have been handed down from generation to generation. That was not the case.<br /><br />We know two functions the Da'shain Aiel had already. In one they were personal assistants to particular Aes Sedai. Another one was communal and it was their collective participation in &quot;crop singing&quot;. <br /><br />I speculate there was a third, for some women.<br /><br />Whether such a thing as a &quot;Wise One&quot; existed back in the AoL is a matter for debate, but personally I believe it was indeed the case and they were similar to clan mothers among North American aboriginals - a very respected position indeed. In one of the Rhuidean scenes from the past - the flight from the Capital, we see a man asking his wife about Dreaming and whether she had one that could help them. <br /><br />I think the Wise Ones of the AoL, beside being the conscience of their communities of Da'shain, were guardians of the Dream, which is perhaps why the symbolism of the Dream remained so prominent in the aiel culture. Not that TAR was forbidden ground to everybody else, but I think the WO &quot;guarded&quot; it and ensure its peaceful use according to the Covenant and the Way, until the Forsaken started using it for their evil. <br /><br />It makes sense that a people sworn to peace and to do no violence, a people so respected nobody in the world would have dared threaten them, would be entrusted with TAR and making sure it is not abused and is used respectfully.<br /><br />We know the WO consider it evil to enter TAR in the flesh, and that it makes you lose your humanity.  I think that this belief (somewhat wrong - as far as we can tell) is derived from what the Forsaken were doing back then and remnants of the Way of the Leaf and the &quot;proper&quot; use of TAR.<br /><br />Some would object that there was &quot;training dream ter'angreal&quot; in the AoL noticed and mentionned by Demandred but we know that ter'angreal were not always reserved to Aes Sedai in the AoL.  They might have belonged to the Aiel, for all we know - and it might well be that it's the aiel Dreamwalkers who trained or even escorted anyone who wished to enter the Dream.<br /><br />We also know that an Aiel who discovered he could channel could decide to enter or not the training to become AS or to remain Aiel - indicating that channelers were not bound to join the Servants. I think that joining the Aes Sedai was pretty much a vocation, a calling. An honored position, but also a status that brought much responsabilities and duties.  We also know that being AS wasn't a full-time job but more like a &quot;status&quot;, Moghedien for instance was a financial advisor in every day life, and Graendal a psychiatrist specialized in patients who couldn't be treated by the OP. In these two cases, it's obvioulsy not in their professional careers that these two women were &quot;Servants of All&quot; - but in the case of a Restorer like Semirhage her job was meshed with her duties as Aes Sedai.   This very much suggests that being Aes Sedai meant that you had sworn to devote selflessly your Creator-given gifts to the global benefit of your society - and for this you could be called to serve at anytime, and that you were sworn to help anybody in need when you could (not so different from the Hippocrates Oaths of medical doctors). The closest thing to a &quot;real&quot; AS in the Third Age would be the Blue Ajah, though they fall really short of the ideal. <br /><br />As for the &quot;ajah&quot;, something else that Mesaana mentions, about the WT being sometimes &quot;worse than the ajah&quot; leads me to believe they were two things :<br /><br />- the ajahs were &quot;teams&quot; of Aes Sedai, assembled for any special service or cause - either called by the Hall of Servants, by other authorities or of their own initiative.  For instance, Mierin might have been part of an ajah that assembled to pursue the scientific &quot;Bore&quot; project at the Collaam Dan - and this ajah first had to convince the Hall of Servants to greenlight the project.  When spring came, ajahs might have assembled to organize the Crop Singing with Aiel, Nym and Ogier. Etc.  Another ajah might have gone to a region where a landslide or avalanche threatened and ajahs of people skilled in handling weather might have rotated to take care of each specific weather ter'angreal for a fixed period of time, before a new ajah came to take over the task while the first ajah split and went home.<br /><br />- the ajah were also &quot;political&quot; groups of Aes Sedai who joined temporarily to push a cause or a point of view to the Hall of the Servants.  From the way Mesaana spoke, it seems this assembly to discuss, decided and perhaps vote was also called an ajah.<br /><br />I guess the word might mean &quot;gathering&quot;, with some complex sub-meanings and connotations that go with the AS mystique.<br /><br />I think the Aiel already worked the same way in the AoL - they too temporarily gathered to Sing Crops etc. then went back to their every day occupations and lives (alongside an Aes Sedai, it appears - though we don't know for certain if they served them all the time and lived with them or only remained available to their AS' call and joined them in their service functions.  We know her Aiel had to ask Mierin if he could wed and move out of the region, but it doesn't tell us if he lived with her or other Aiel from the area (I believe the later, because of the community links they show later on)<br /><br />I don't think they inherited this functionning from the Aes Sedai in Rhuidean, I believe this type of hierarchy and functionning where everyone has rights, duties and functions and gathered from special work went beyond the Aes Sedai organization and was actually a fundamental principle of the Age of Legends' society.<br /><br />The AoL, as an Utopian system, was very likely largely like a communist society that works.  It's like a giant mechanism in which everyone has a defined place and where all the parts make the system work.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><font size="-1"><img src="images/personalsmilies/30778.gif" />Wheel of Time Reference Library : Articles, maps, charts and misc.<img src="images/personalsmilies/30778.gif" /><br /><br /></font><p><a href="http://13depository.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">The Thirteenth Depository - a Wheel of Time Blog</a></p><p></p>


created: 2004-12-06 13:51:35
subject: <b>I don't think one can really compare it.</b>
body:
The Guide tells of the main difference between ajahs and Ajahs: <br />'Comparing the two definitions and what we know of Ajah today, it seems that the most likely change was from &quot;temporary&quot; to &quot;permanent&quot;.'<br /><br />The ajah were just unions of several Aes Sedai for some time.<br />For example Mierin's group, which drilled the Bore, was maybe an ajah.<br /><br />However, this doesn't tell us anything about the hierachy among the AS in the AoL.<br /><br />The Guide tells about the organisation of the AS that &quot;the Aes Sedai in the Age of Legends had a very loose sort of organization&quot;. <br /><br />And, &quot;they had their own internal governing structure through the Hall of the Servants, which was the core of the guild that controlled and regulated all those who could channel.&quot;<br />The elected head was the &quot;First Among Servants&quot;.<br />Maybe the Nine Rods of Dominion were also high ranking AS.<br /><br />Besides that, it seems there wasn't any hierachy among the AS in the AoL.<br /><br />It's said about the AoL that &quot;status and honor were all-important, and could only be gained through service to the community. All hoped to be allowed to serve according to their gifts and to be found worthy of that service.&quot; <br /><br />And &quot;the people afforded the most status, though they still had to earn their third name through great individual works, were those whose gifts made them capable of the greatest service: those who could effectively channel the One Power.[...] They were dedicated to using the full extent of their gift for the betterment of their world.&quot;<br /><br />This shows that a high OP strength was certainly useful for an AS to receive a high status in the society, but also important were personal skills and e.g. the desire to be a politician if you wanted to be in the Hall and govern the guild, like LTT became the First Among Servants because he was strong, eager and capable.<br /><br />It seems the Wise Ones are especially ranked by their personal skills and will.<br />And I agree with others above, that the Aiel had probably already Wise One or Guides (like the Tinkers and Amayar have) before the Breaking. <br />


created: 2004-12-06 16:08:01
subject: <b>Sounds good...</b>
body:
So... i vote yes... makes sense too.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1"><i>you know you can't leave Wotmania. It's kinda like herpes, you can just never really get rid of it.</i><br />Kit <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/smile.gif" border="0" /> <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/smile.gif" border="0" /> <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/biggrin.gif" border="0" /></font><p><a href="http://www.cbgxtra.com/" target="_blank">Comics Buyer's Guide XTRA</a></p><p></p>


created: 2004-12-06 21:19:27
subject: <b>My thoughts</b>
body:
Perhaps each Wise One has an area of expertise and in that area she outranks another Wise One. But that same Wise One may out rank her in another area.


created: 2004-12-07 05:49:30
subject: <b>I like this idea</b>
body:
A couple of scenes that you might have also used was when Perrin was on his way to rescue Rand. He is tallying up how many people he has to challenge the Tower Aes Sedai and free Rand:<br /><br />&quot;There are also ninety-four Wise Ones,&quot; Amys said. &quot;They are the strongest in the One Power of those near the city.&quot; That came out reluctantly-he had the idea Aiel women did not like to admit they could channel-but her voice picked up. &quot;We would not have brought so many, but all wanted to come.&quot; Sorilea cleared her throat, and this time Amys blushed. He was going to have to ask Gaul. Aiel were so unlike anyone else he had ever met; maybe they began blushing when they were older. &quot;Sorilea leads us,&quot; Amys finished, and the older woman gave a snort that sounded extremely satisfied. She certainly smelled satisfied.&quot;<br /><br />As the procession continues to gain ground, there is by-play between Amys and Sorilea that is evident:<br /><br />&quot;The Wise Ones always walked alongside the road in groups that varied in size and seemed to shift members constantly. By the end of the first day Perrin realized that all the shifting really centered around two women, Sorilea and Amys. By the end of the second, he was sure the two were urging very different viewpoints; there were too many glares and frowns. Now and then Perrin heard Aes Sedai mentioned; he caught snatches about &quot;custom&quot; and &quot;battle,&quot; but never enough to understand. Amys began backing down more slowly, and blushing considerably less. Sometimes Rhuarc smelled faintly anxious when he looked at his wife, but that was the only sign he saw anything. By the night of the third camp out of the city, Perrin half-expected to see Sulin and Nandera's fight repeated between the Wise Ones.<br /><br />Instead, the two women took a waterskin and went off a little distance, where they sat by themselves on the ground and removed their folded scarves so their long hair hung loose. He watched them into moonlit darkness, keeping far enough back so that he would not eavesdrop by accident, until he went to his own bed, but all they did was drink cups of water and talk. The next morning, the rest of the Wise Ones still shifted from group to group, but before the long column had covered three miles, Perrin realized that all centered on Sorilea now. Now and then she and Amys went off to one side of the road by themselves to talk, but there were no more glares. Had they been wolves, Perrin would have said a challenge to the pack leader had been defeated, but by their scents, Sorilea accepted Amys as almost an equal now, which did not fit wolves at all.&quot; LoC, The Sending.<br /><br />This is by far the best example of how the shifting tide moves within the Aiel Wise Ones' heirarchy,- something Verin did not get to witness,- and I would very much liken it to the ajah of old as you point out in your theory.<br /><br />Good job, and a thumbs up from me!<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">Where once was Shadow<br /> Now reigns <b>Light</b><br /> Darkness fades<br /> <b>In</b>to <b>the Night</b><br /><br />Wotmania's Theory Post has the most!<br />Submit one of your own today <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/jordan.gif" border="0" /><br /><br />Wotmania's richest Wotmaniac!</font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-07 18:02:31
subject: <b>Nice addition to the theory</b>
body:
It's definitely interesting.<br /><br />The thing is, if Amys is stronger than Sorilea in the OP, so it might be more natural for her to lead. <br /><br />I guess I could agree to the fact that the WO's work ine ajahs, under certain premises. All Wise Ones work towards the survival of as many Aiel as possible, and have done so under any number of years. Yet, this amy be done in many ways, and many different details have to be taken itno account. The best way to do this would be to split into subgroups, or ajahs, if you will.<br /><br />I'm unsure whether there's a Tamyrlin-like figure amongst the Aiel WO's. The Shaido have Sevanna, with Therava heading the opposition. Is Sorilea ever seen taking orders? And is Amys her &quot;opposition&quot;?<br /><br />ANd how does the position as oppostion/second in charge stand with the Seanchan Truthsayers?<br />Is it like Amyrlin and Keeper?<br />Or LTT and LPD (Latra Posae Decume)?<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">The only way to convince me is by providing some evidence!</font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-13 08:47:16
subject: <b>I don't think so</b>
body:
When it's said that the AoLer AS organization was a vast see of ajahs, it definitely means some sort of officially admitted organization. There was something named an &quot;ajah&quot; and apparently the ajah members openly confessed their participation to one ajah and not to another. Any kind of factual differencies between AS groups exist at any time, but only those grouping that were officially confessed by their members would be mentioned as the units of AS organization.<br /><br />Now, WO-s confess no official factions. If any WO is asked she would say there are no different groups between them. It's even stronger than the grouping in Ajahs in the White Tower. If somebody asks anything any WO the answer must be taken as the opinion of all WO. Also, when an WO with more authority is there, every other WO obeys here. Every WO obeys to Sorilea in any case, with the only exception of Amys in the way to Dumai Wells (Sorilea was surprised that such thing as Amys' partial unobedience happened, and Amys never admitted it officially, the WO remained officially &quot;we&quot; during the whole process of dissagreement). The AS visibly divided in two groups but they never admitted their partitipation in one of the groups and not in the another. So I'd say that the scene of disagreement between Sorilea and Amys was rather a crisis in the WO organization and not the organization of their hierarchy itself. It seemed like all the WO involved feeled in an exceptional state that must end as soon as possible, so when Sorilea and Amys met and cleared their relationships that was experienced as unevitable and after that the situation was resolved into the normal state.<br /><br />WO have no admitted groups. Every WO is standalone - that's their organization - not an ocean of ajahs but an ocean of particular WO. If their group together it's allways tacit, as if such factioning never took place. I want not experience WO's reaction if I loudly suppose that there are any kind of factions and even &quot;ajahs&quot; between the WO. And every WO in particular obeys to every highter ranked WO in every case when they are together. Every physical meeting of some WO is supposed to be a monolite group by all other Aiel. There are just no &quot;ajahs&quot;.


created: 2004-12-13 18:29:49
subject: <b>Just a few problems:</b>
body:
First, how do we know how old ANYONE who can channel among the Wise Ones is, aside from knowing that Sorilea is the oldest and Amys is middle-aged?  We only know Amys' approximate age because she said that Aviendha got to be a Maiden longer than she had, and Aviendha was 1<img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/smackhead.gif" border="0" />19, and Amys was still a Maiden 28 years ago, when she met Tigraine/Shaiel.  Sorilea is not the oldest by all that much according to the glossaries - she is a very weak channeler, and Elayne said in aCoS that stronger channelers age more slowly (i.e. Morgase, who merely looks too young to have an 18 year old, but not youthful, is even weaker than Sorilea, while Nynaeve still looks 19-20).  Remember the stories of Mora, that she looked like a young woman despite being 300, and was the strongest known channeler.<br /><br />Second, the RPG, while wrong on A LOT of things suggests that standing among Wise Ones is predicated on their experience in the area in question (i.e. if Aviendha becomes a Wise One soon, she might find older Wise Ones deferring to her on matters connected to wetlander politics)<br /><br />The whole &quot;ajah&quot; concept too is unlikely when you consider that a lot of Wise Ones can't even channel.  They would be unlikely to borrow an Aes Sedai idea, especially as the last thing they would want to do is try to pretend to be the Aes Sedai they all but worshipped until Sheriam and co. dried up that stream of goodwill.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">Cannoli<br />&quot;I'm German-Irish&quot; - Tom Hagen<br />&#8220;There is no safety for honest men, except by believing all possible evil of evil men&quot; - Edmund Burke<br /><b>Inde muagdhe Aes Sedai misain ye!</b><br />Deus vult!</font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-15 18:14:46
subject: <b>Hmmmm</b>
body:
For some reason, I always kind of thought their rank had a lot to do with how quickly they returned from Rhuidean.  The quicker they make it through, the more highly they're regarded.<br />Just a thought.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1"><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/whitecloak.gif" border="0" />  Erith  <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/whitecloak.gif" border="0" /><br /><br />The higher, the fewer.</font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-19 06:32:21
subject: <b>I was looking through some old interviews....</b>
body:
and found this excerpt from a book signing in San Jose, on Oct. 25th, 1998, reported by Rick Moen:<br /><br />&quot;A reader asked when the term &quot;Ajah&quot; came to have the meaning it has in Rand's time.  He said that until at least 500 years after the Tower was founded, it meant a temporary association for a specific purpose, and was a lower-case noun.  Its proper-noun sense arose afterwards, supplanting the <br />earlier usage after the Trolloc Wars.&quot;<br /><br />RJ's own interpretation of what &quot;ajah&quot; means. Thought you might like to know, that's all.<br /><br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">Where once was Shadow<br /> Now reigns <b>Light</b><br /> Darkness fades<br /> <b>In</b>to <b>the Night</b><br /><br />Wotmania's Theory Post has the most!<br />Submit one of your own today <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/jordan.gif" border="0" /><br /><br />Wotmania's richest Wotmaniac!</font><p></p>


created: 2007-07-20 10:14:33
subject: <b>ji'e'toh</b>
body:
In ebou dar, (either CoS, Chapter 13: The Bowl of the Winds or PoD, Chapter 1: To Keep the Bargain, can't remember) Avi remarks that the Aes Sedai's system of ranking themselves by strength in the power is curious. the quote goes something like this:<br /><br />How could strength in the power, something you were born with and had no control over, be more important than the honor you could accumulate in a lifetime?<br /><br /><br />conclusion: the Wise Ones rank themselves by Ji'e'Toh. If a wise one has toh to another wise one, she is moved down on the hierarchy, If someone attains much ji, then she is moved up in the rankings.


created: 2009-02-04 04:25:15
subject: <b>true heirs of the AoL</b>
body:
I myself believe that the Aiel Wise Ones are the true heirs of the AoL Aes Sedai in spirit if not in skill. They work towards the survival of the people as a whole. Selflessly and honorably. They are also integrated into the communities they serve.<br />As for skill no one can really claim to have even a fraction of the skill of the original Aes Sedai. Certainly not even the White Tower.<br /><br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">Is this in the Old Tongue?<br />&quot;Bah weep graaagnah wheep ni ni bong!&quot;</font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-07 06:02:43
subject:
<b>Hey, the brooch thing is certainly right! <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/wink.gif" border="0" /></b>

body:
Anyway, the funny thing about this riddle is that RJ said in one Q&amp;A: <br />&quot;No, I haven't given you enough information to solve the murders of Adeleas and Ispan, but they will be solved in Knife of Dreams.&quot;<br /><br />So, ironically it could actually speak for Sareitha, if there are not so many conclusive hints so far. <br /><br />What certainly speaks a bit against Careane is that she has Warders. It seems most BA don't have Warders.<br /><br />I also don't think it was a lie because Careane just repeated her interpretation of Nynaeve's words, and Nynaeve indeed implied that the Forsaken would come to get them and not do nothing.<br />


created: 2004-12-07 09:15:39
subject: <b>OK you've got me convinced.</b>
body:
I have, to this point, not made up my mind about this, but now I am reasonably sure you are right. All the evidence you've presented makes a strong case, and there's just too much for it to be circumstancial.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">Dinkle Donkle, Dinkle Donkle<br />Someone's calling you.<br />GOULET!<br /><br /><b> <font color="C11B17"> <br />Yvonne</font> APPROVED! </b></font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-07 09:28:19
subject: <b>I agree with Etzel</b>
body:
about the lie. It wasn't a lie. Remember the three oaths only stop somebody from telling a lie if they believe it to be a lie. If she interpreted the question as a statement, then then she spoke the truth as she saw it.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">Bob L. Sedai (a.k.a. Luge) <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/pharoah.gif" border="0" /><br />Fighting off the Taint - <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/rant.gif" border="0" /> <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/tinfoilhat.gif" border="0" /> <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/rant.gif" border="0" /><br /><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/read.gif" border="0" />Thanks given to Burr, the ever-helpful theory critic<img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/read.gif" border="0" /><br /><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/whitecloak.gif" border="0" />And to Light in the Night, fellow theorist extraordinaire<img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/whitecloak.gif" border="0" /><br /><br />Voted Best Screenname 1 (one) years in a row.</font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-07 10:51:35
subject: <b>Also the tea thing</b>
body:
She also made the tea for Aldeas (sp.) in Ebou Dar. So she would have known how she took her tea. enough to kill her in Harlons Bridge.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1"><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/rand.gif" border="0" /> <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/mat.gif" border="0" /> <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/perrin.gif" border="0" /><br />I don't fail. I succeed in finding what doesn't work. <br /><br /><font color="00ff33">Official Sponsor of the Melindhra Fan Club</font></font><p><a href="http://www.illwillpress.com" target="_blank">Feel the Squirley Wrath!!!!</a></p><p></p>


created: 2004-12-07 11:46:40
subject: <b>To Etzel:</b>
body:
&quot;What certainly speaks a bit against Careane is that she has Warders. It seems most BA don't have Warders.&quot;<br /><br />We saw at least two BA sisters with Warders - one Warder is looking for her to kill her, another Warder is DF himself. So I don't think Warder argument can stand further.<br /><br />But I agree that Careane's interpretation of Nynaeve words is not an actual lie.


created: 2004-12-07 12:17:29
subject: <b>To Skeeve The Great</b>
body:
<b> We saw at least two BA sisters with Warders - one Warder is looking for her to kill her, another Warder is DF himself. So I don't think Warder argument can stand further. </b> <br /><br />We know that Asne has four Warders.<br /><br />But I would still say that it is quite an exception that a BA has several Warders. <br />Careane has at least two Warders. In my view this indicates that she is rather not BA (though it's still possible of course).  <br /><br /><br />One other point against Careane:<br /><br />In the scene with Hanlon in CoT, ch.11, Elayne considers that &quot;they [Merilille and Careane] would have seen Mellar called down, and preferably put out of the palace, long since.&quot;<br /><br />This implies that they, contrary to Sareitha who praises him, expressed their averseness to Hanlon in front of Elayne very frankly.<br /><br />If Careane knows that Hanlon is a DF, she certainly wouldn't want that he loses his position in the palace due to her influence, since Moridin apparently needs him there. <br /><br />In view of this, Sareitha's behaviour makes more sense for a BA.


created: 2004-12-07 12:43:21
subject: <b>To Etzel</b>
body:
Never mind. I thought I will point out that having Warders doesn't mean AS is not a BA. That's all. <br />


created: 2004-12-07 13:24:10
subject: <b>Etzel</b>
body:
Just because she does not want Daved near Elayne does mean Careane isn't a BA.  Remember that BA and other DF often have different agendas and orders.  The underground of Shadow is not as organized as all that.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">Deserves got nothing to do with it. <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/bobbafett.gif" border="0" /></font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-07 14:44:17
subject: <b>Hmmm...</b>
body:
I like your theory. Although it has no real proof , it contains a series of co-incidences which seem to mount to something. You may be right.<br /><br />I always favoured Sareitha because of this mysterious meeting she had , which timed in well with Shaille's statement about the amount of Sisters in the Palace.<br /><br />The only problem with your theory has been stated above ... RJ said we couldn't figure out the assassin yet. I'm not sure if he's right because he's been making some blunders lately and might not remember what he wrote so many books back. But if he is right , then none of us can guess who the assassin is.<br /><br />Good work <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/smile.gif" border="0" /><br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">A One Power researcher<br />Defender of Lanfear<br />Grand Ninja-Nae'blis to be feared <br />Original Warder to Isa <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/smile.gif" border="0" /><br />New Warder to Nossie <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/biggrin.gif" border="0" /><br />Toy to Seriana <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/winky.gif" border="0" /><br />Mystified by a Fan <br />Bonded Phelix - I was young, it happened so fast.</font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-07 15:51:20
subject: <b>Careane and making tea</b>
body:
lodlom, you are right.  RIGHT after I hit the submit button, I realized I had forgotten to incldue the tea issue.  Vandene said (paraphrase), &quot;Adeleas acquired the taste for sweet tea in Ebou Dar&quot; and Careane made tea there.  Of course it proves NOTHING, but it is the type of silly, lingering hint which RJ seems to like.<br /><br />And as far as the interpretation/lie discussion goes, I wouldn't bet my life savings on it, but I truly don't think that Careana would hear a question, a hypothetical, and then be able to say the words, &quot;You said so yourself.&quot; I just don't think it works.<br />But again, I see room for very reasonable disagreement on this point.<br />Thanks for the feedback so far!


created: 2004-12-07 17:52:02
subject: <b>I'm not saying yea or nay...</b>
body:
...since this theory does in fact not hold enough evidence to prove anything beyond reasonable doubt. A point which might be counted in favour of it being true, RJ-icly enough.<br /><br />Some points I want to make:<br />Why did Careane's horse bump Nyn's in the first place, if she's so fond of her horse? Would you take a beloved furry pet close to Cruella de Vil? (Not the best of examples, I'm sure)<br /><br />Is there any other passage that proves Care's fond of horses?<br /><br />I agree with those above who point out the murky DF-connections. <br />Does the BA in the Palace know who Hanlon is? <br />Does she know how important he is? <br />Will she actually do what she's told? <br />What has she been told? <br />Is she ready to expose herself in obeying these orders; <br />how far is she willing to go?<br />What if both Sareitha and Care are BA, and Asne &amp; co knows about one, Shiaine about the other? <br />Murky enough for you yet?<br /><br />I further agree with those who wonder about the &quot;lie&quot;. It all depends on how Care viewed Nyn's statement. If it in fact was a lie, was it to protect the watcher (hoping to gain a little bonus with the Chosen?)<br />I think the key question to the lie/no lie-issue is:<br />Does Care believe that a Forsaken would stand and watch or not?<br /><br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">The only way to convince me is by providing some evidence!</font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-07 21:25:13
subject: <b>Actually Aes Sedai can lie if they don't realize they are doing it</b>
body:
The Three Oaths don't prevent you from doing something directly. The cause your mind to be unable to do it. I admit it seems like a fine line but I think it is very important. As a result, you are able to lie if your mind believes it true, but by the same logic you can lie if you don't realize you are lying. The point being, if you don't think of it as a lie, even if you know it is, you can say. A prime example being the threats of punishment expressed by a sister. Everyone knows they really won't strip of your hide so it is technically a lie, but they don't think of it as one (its just an expression right??) so they aren't restricted<br /><br />If you apply the same to BA memebers you would see. A black ajah member can't lie by mistake and thus show herself to be BA. If that were true, any sister who exaggerated would have to be BA. Any BA &quot;lie&quot; in every day speech would fit in this category and thus wouldn't violate the 3 oaths and prove her BA. The example in this theory is clearly one of those cases. Her &quot;lie&quot; was simply her way of expressing what she believed to be true.<br /><br />My point really is, if a BA memeber breaks the three oaths it is going to be for a big reason, not for something she could accomplish by telling the truth, since every true lie is big danger.


created: 2004-12-08 01:43:28
subject: <b>Lies and the lying black sisters who tell them...</b>
body:
Heiti--<br />I think the trick here is NOT to believe that Careane gives a sorda's behind about her horse; the point is that Elayne ASSUMED that was why she was glaring at Nynaeve.  Whenever one character does the &quot;i interpret their behavior as having this reason&quot; it is almost always wrong--in some cases we know why (Mat spazzing about Tylin and Elayne thinking he was drunk, etc.) and in some cases it is a clue (Dashiva talking in Old Tongue and Rand thinking he was a well-read farmer).<br />And in the case of the lie, it had nothing to do with the Forsaken caring or not; at this point in time, she was trying to distract the group from discussing Aviendha's unknown watcher (which was the gholam and Moridin). And the lie has nothing to do with whether she thinks the Forsaken would stand and watch, the lie (imho) is that she states as fact Nynaeve said something, which she didn't.<br /><br />Sir_Lancelittle<br />I don't think so. The difference between a future threat and a statement of past historical fast is very large.  A possible outcome (which the Aes Sedai controls) versus something that either happened or it didn't.  Again, the difference between &quot;do u want to wait until they get us?&quot; and &quot;they wouldn't just watch but would so something&quot; is huge! One is a question or begging; the other is a statement.  I don't believe that Aes Sedai hear things and screw up like that.  You and a few others mention that, essentially, all she had to do was hear it or remember it wrong and all of a sudden she can say it.  I don't think so. Narenwin couldn't even leave out a modifying clause!<br />&quot;I was ordered to take charge of the sisters I found here ...and do what I could.&quot; After a moment she sighed, and amended herself reluctantly. &quot;The sisters I found here under Covarla.&quot;<br />The Oaths wouldn't be so demanding if they didn't imply an awful lot of exact word parsing, and AS are trained to be observant and remember stuff.<br />Try this: an AS is advising a King, and hears him say, &quot;What am I supposed to do? Wait until they raid our borders and go all the way to the capitol?&quot; and then the AS goes to a negotiation and says, &quot;The king said if he waits any longer they will raid our borders and go all the way to the capitol.&quot;  No, he didn't say that; he just proposed a hypothetical.


created: 2004-12-08 01:49:15
subject: <b>BTW</b>
body:
I am not arguing with the &quot;they can lie if they don't know it&quot; thing; I agree that is true, such as Moiraine telling Rand that men and women were equal in the Power and Asmodean telling him it's not true.  She could say if it she were taught it as fact.<br />I just think in this case it's too far apart from what happened to fall into that category


created: 2004-12-08 02:57:25
subject: <b>another thing...</b>
body:
&quot;* She doesn't pass on that she knew Zarya / Garenia. When Adeleas finds her, she says, &quot;I'm surprised Careane didn't recgnize her before this; they were novies together for two years.&quot; With all the time she stared at the Kinswomen and was riding with them, etc, and with the way Aes Sedai feel about runaways, she would keep her mouth shut? Doubt it. Only after the first one is revealed, does she remember that she knows four of them (COT, Chp 11).&quot;<br /><br />This does'nt necessarily mean she is BA. Maybe did'nt want reveal Zarya/Garenia because Careane helped her run away and Careane fears punishment for this  <br />


created: 2004-12-08 05:55:54
subject: <b>Some answers</b>
body:
She could have simply wanted to keep the Garenia info to herself. Maybe she had a little (AS or BA?)-plan in her mind about using these four later on.<br /><br />Torrent:<br />The &quot;whenever some one assumes&quot;- only applies to this, if there is no or littele reason to believe the assumption correct: If it's mentioned in another place that Careane is fond of horses, it supports the assumption El makes. If the opposite is stated, Care's behaviour is even more compromising.<br /><br />Why do you keep repeating everything I said?<br />To make it perfectly clear:<br />option one: (lie/diversive adtion)<br />Careane is BA and believes a Forsaken was watching.<br />option two: (no lie)<br />Careane is BA and believes a Forsaken would not just watch.<br />option three: (no lie)<br />Careane is not BA and and believes a Forsaken would not just watch.<br />option four: (weird)<br />Careane is not BA and believes a Forsaken was watching (but believes Nyn said they wouldn't?).<br /><br />The thing is, as many have stated: It doesn't matter if Nyn said exactly what Care says she did. If Care believes it true, she isn't lying. And, IMHO, if she does believe it herself, she is more likely to interpret whan Nyn said accordingly.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">The only way to convince me is by providing some evidence!</font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-08 10:46:50
subject: <b>Very good theory...</b>
body:
I have always favored Sareitha and then Vandene, but this theory does give me reason to believe that it may be Careane. In light of RJ's revelation that the evidence available should not allow us to conclude one person over another, I am still waiting of more evidence.<br /><br />A couple of interesting points to make that may mean absolutely nothing. <br /><br />A pattern that I have noticed is that a large porpotion of known BA are quite similar in age, and that they correspond with training when Merean (known BA) was Mistress of Novices.<br /><br />From the age FAQ, Careane is in the range of 85 to 100 years old, and has been AS for over 50 years. While it is possible that Merean had been MoN for long enought to be involved in her training, I would imagine it to be hightly unlikely.<br /><br />Sareitha is quite young, she has been AS for only about 3 years and is likely around 37-40 years old. Assuming that Sareitha trained for a typical amount of time, it is quite likely that Merean was MoN when she arrived at the tower and that Sareitha had been at the WT for a couple years at the time of Merean's death.<br /><br /><br />Does this mean anything? Probably not. Is it evidence? No. But if Sareitha did train under Merean's eye and she is BA, she fits a developing pattern of the BA - and we all know that RJ loves patterns.<br /><br />Ultimately we will RAFO - and I guess that we will know by the end of KoD.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1"><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/cool.gif" border="0" /><br /><br />Need a book to read - check out my blog for ideas.</font><p><a href="http://nethspace.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">Neth Space</a></p><p></p>


created: 2004-12-08 11:34:30
subject: <b>Very nicely done.</b>
body:
Personally, I think you've got some traction with the argument about Careane violating the three oaths.  I've always tried to reserve my own judgement on who the Black Ajah sister may be in the Palace, but this definitely provides some nice food for thought.<br /><br />I would like to add one thing about Adeleas' killer.  Her killer does not really need to be the same person as the Black Ajah sister.  In fact, I've always thought that it would counter-intuitive for the killer to be a Black Ajah sister that is near Elayne.  My reasoning is that killing Adeleas puts that BA sister at greater risk than simply letting her live.  Unless Ispan is in the same heart as Careane (for arguments sake) then she can't possibly reveal her secret.  That's even assuming that Adeleas and Vandene somehow find a way to undo the BA oaths that seem to protect BA schemes.  It isn't until Adeleas' death that there is even any suspicion on Elayne, et al's part that there might be a Black Ajah sister in their midst.  This seems, on a pratical level, counter-productive in terms of Careane maintaining her secret affiliation.<br /><br />In any case, my whole point is that RJ's comment about not having enough info to prove Adeleas' killer should neither add nor detract from any theory that tries to ID the BA sister in the palace.  At least for me, they are most likely two different people.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1"><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/aessedai.gif" border="0" /> Diomedes <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/baalzamon.gif" border="0" /></font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-09 00:20:31
subject: <b>Got it now</b>
body:
Heiti--thanks for your last post; I think I see the difference in our POVs now.<br />My issue is this: FORGET what the Forsaken might do.  What Careane believes Forsaken would do.  Don't think about the Forsaken at all.  I don't care if they would watch, stand, channel or do the macarena, nor do I think it matters what Careane thinks they would do.  The lie, for me, is in the second sentence, &quot;You said so yourself.&quot;<br />Look at my proof like this:<br />Nynaeve:&quot;Do you want to blah blah untill yadda yadda?&quot;<br />Careane: &quot;You said that yadda yadda would blah blah.&quot;<br />The issue has NOTHING to do with what Careane thinks of the Forsaken, but that she spoke the words, &quot;you SAID so yourself&quot; when Nyneave never did. She made a statement of past actions (in this case, Nyn's words). Nyneave did NOT say those words, and I think that all of the waffling on &quot;well, Careane might have an opinion and that would allow her to remember things differently and therefore she's not lying&quot; is way too thin. All of your &quot;option 1, option2&quot; focuses on what Careane thinks a Forsaken would do.  That's not the point.  The point is what did Careane hear Nyn say! And what she said, I believe, is not what Careane said she did.<br />Your statement here:<br />&quot;It doesn't matter if Nyn said exactly what Care says she did. If Care believes it true, she isn't lying.&quot;<br />again misses the mark: Care would have to believe that Nyn spoke those words to make her second sentence true, and her beliefs on the Forsaken have nothing to do with her memory.


created: 2004-12-09 03:57:52
subject: <b>The killer is the Black Ajah</b>
body:
In my view the killer of Adeleas and Ispan must be the BA in the palace and that means Merillile, Careane or Sareitha.<br />It's stated two times in the books that the BA and thus the killer is one of these three: <br /><br />Vandene says in WH, ch.8: <br />&quot;They [Kirstian and Zarya] reasoned out that the killer must be Merilille, Sareitha or Careane.&quot;<br /><br />And in CoT, ch.11, Elayne considers:<br />&quot;Vandene was not only grieving for a sister, she was searching for Adeleas&#8217;s murderer, and there could be no doubt that the killer was Merilille Ceandevin, Careane Fransi or Sareitha Tomares.&quot;<br /><br />I don't believe that this could be a red herring (would be much too plump), but a statement by RJ for the reader that indeed one of these three is the killer/BA.


created: 2004-12-09 08:42:46
subject: <b>I meant...</b>
body:
The killer is the Black Aes Sedai... <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/biggrin.gif" border="0" />


created: 2004-12-09 14:00:07
subject: <b>AACK!</b>
body:
Personally, I've given up on figuring out who killed Adeleas and Ispan--especially since Robert &quot;It's Intuitively Obvious&quot; Jordan told us that it was impossible.  I've also given up on remembering who's who and what's what about Careane and Sarietha--two minor, uninteresting characters who have been subjected to mind-numbing amounts of scrutiny because of this murder mystery.  You can flip a coin for all I care, make one of them BA and kill the other one off--I'll just be relieved that it's finally over.<br /><br />That said, I still need to interject here, because this whole obsession with parsing out sentences to prove that &quot;Aes Sedai X lied&quot; is really getting on my nerves.  The First Oath is not that rigid, folks!  In fact, it's about as ironclad as a warm slice of Wisconsin swiss.  If Verin, for instance, had reason to believe (or a way to convince herself) that Moiraine had sent her to 'help' Ingtar in TGH--even if Moiraine doesn't remember doing so--then neither of them broke the First Oath.  It's that easy!  <br /><br />So in this case, if Careane believes that Nynaeve's question contained an implied statement of opinion, it's okay for Careane to say &quot;You said so yourself,&quot; even if Nyneave never actually made a declarative statement on the issue.  Aes Sedai may be careful with words, but they don't exist in a grammatically anal universe where you can't use the word _said_ to refer to something that was strongly implied in the subtext of a rhetorical question.  In fact, I'd expect it to be the exact opposite--that Aes Sedai, who are invested in making the truth as supple as possible, would choose not to define a word like _said_ quite so rigidly.  I for one have often used the word _said_ when I really meant _implied_, and I've never seen that as lying--just imprecise word choice.


created: 2004-12-09 14:53:33
subject: <b>I agree</b>
body:
I have suspected Careane since WH.  I figured showing Careane leave the palace with her warder, and then showing known Black Ajah members discussing one of their sisters who is in the palace, could not be a simple coincidence.  When I took writing classes in college, I was told that if something was non-essential, I shouldn't include it.  Why talk about Careane leaving the palace otherwise? <br /><br />Also, I didn't pick up on the tea thing.  Very good point.  All in all, Careane has behaved pretty oddly.


created: 2004-12-10 00:35:53
subject: <b>The young sister</b>
body:
I've always had in the back of my mind that Sareitha was the sister too young for the ageless look that Rahvin found useful, but without the books handy I can't remember either if was Sareitha and if the young sister was BA or just someone else Rahvin compulsed.  Does anyone know?  This last rereading of the books (post New Spring) I've tried to keep better track of all the minor characters, but hey, I've got to leave something for the pre Knife read!


created: 2004-12-10 03:42:17
subject: <b>*sigh*</b>
body:
Simple rules of communication: Very few people remember the exact words anyone has said. They remember the interpretation their brain made of those words.<br /><br />Do you have any idea of how many fights start with: &quot;You said so yourself&quot;? The basic problem with these arguments is that, unless there's a written record of what was said (which we do, but Care and Nyn don't), the one who said it only remembers the message they tried to convey at the time (NOT the words) and the one hearing it only remembers their interpretation of it(gain NOT the words.<br /><br />Hence, the lie hangs upon how Care interpreted what Nyn said. She would only remember the essense of the message as she interpretated it, so if she remembers Nyn saying something to the effect of: No FS would stand watching, she's not lying.<br /><br />Now, this is as many times as I'm willing to repeat one point.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">The only way to convince me is by providing some evidence!</font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-11 00:29:39
subject: <b>to demarre</b>
body:
Nope, Sareitha isn't the young sister Rahvin &quot;takes advantage of&quot;.  Different person.<br /><br />Young sister:  We don't know her name, but she is first mentioned for the first time in the prologue of FOH, when Alviarin mentions that there is a young RED sister in place in the palace.  She's presumably Andoran, because she's able to blend in well as a spy.  In another scene from the prologue, this is the AS that Rahvin is Compulsing and him and Lanfear discusses.  She is the one delivering the forged letters from Elayne to Morgase, and the girl that Lini describes Rahvin as &quot;a big eyed young thing&quot; who is snuck in and out of the palace in a cloak.  (So presumably Rahvin is having some fun with her as well as Compusling her to hamper the WT...eew.)  Furthermore, this is the AS that is described in LOC as having run screaming from the city after hearing Rand has conquered the Palace.  (not the AS described as healing dogs and cats in LOC, that's Marillin.  Interesting that she's been in Caemlyn ever since LOC.)<br /><br />Sarietha :  Domani, Brown Ajah, described a not a little plump.  The young RA sister is slim.  So, they're not the same.<br /><br />As for the theory, I agree wholeheartedly.  I've always felt that Sareitha has been a bit TOO obvious.


created: 2004-12-11 17:57:54
subject: <b>When a lie is not a lie</b>
body:
First of all I like this theory, I've always thought Sareitha was a bit TOO OBVIOUS. My own personal choice is still Vandene, but that's another story. <br />Now about the lie. Everybody agrees that if an AS believes something is true than she can state it. Over the years I have attended any number of seminars on verbal communcation. What has been proven to me over and over again is that almost everybody doesn't listen too carefully. When I need to be perfectly clear in my verbal communication I ask for a repete. I would say that about 60% of the time, what the person repetes back to me is only somewhat close to what I said, and frequently misses the mark completely as to what I intended (imprecise communication goes both ways) <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/wink.gif" border="0" /> My point is this: It doesn't matter what Nyn said, Careane certainly could have thought she heard what she said Nyn said. Therefore no lie<br /><br />NaCl(I can believe that C. thought she heard Nyn say what she said she said...clear enuf for you? )H2O <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/jester.gif" border="0" /><br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">Any comments on my photos appreciated</font><p><a href="http://saltwater.smugmug.com/" target="_blank">My photos, a work in progress</a></p><p></p>


created: 2004-12-12 12:35:42
subject: <b>Hmmm, no.</b>
body:
Her statement is not a lie.  It's an interpretation of something someone else stated.  AS always do this.  And if AS believe something is true, they can say it.  Case in point, Rand paraphrases Morraine by saying male and female channelers are equal in power.  Asmo corrects him by saying females are stonger in wind and water, males in earth and fire; spirit is equally shared. Asmo goes on to say,&quot;...that is another problem with those fool three oaths.  If an AS believes it to be true, she can state it.  Even if it's not true.&quot;


created: 2004-12-16 03:31:30
subject: <b>About the lie</b>
body:
All Careane would have to do is not be quite sure what Nyn said. If she thought that's what Nyn meant, then she can paraphrase Nyn.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">I amuse myself.</font><p></p>


created: 2005-08-12 10:28:52
subject: <b>Somebody end this now.... argggh!</b>
body:
You said I said he said you said I said.....<br />Look at how people reinterpert posts - and those are written, solid, whereas speech is ephemeral.<br />The First Oath is so flexible its a joke in many ways. Because it only applies when the As is concentrating on/ feels strongly about what they say. So an As can threaten to strip off your hide and not lie - because its a casual expression, but the stressed out Siuan cant lie about how tough her spy training is because she is in such a strait over it.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">&quot;We wont give a fig,<br /> We'll tell you to,<br /> Go stick your head in a pig!&quot;<br />  The Sirius Cybernetics Customer Services Helpline - Share and Enjoy!</font><p></p>


created: 2005-10-25 11:24:13
subject: <b>KOD SPOILER</b>
body:
DO NOT READ IF YOU DO NOT WISH TO BE SPOILED<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />LAST CHANCE<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />KOD SAYS THAT CAREANE DID IT... THE WINNER IS TORRENT


created: 2007-05-02 21:43:51
subject: <b>almost there</b>
body:
that was good thinking to say the least, but you haven't entirely assured me that is was careane. i'm also a little suspicious of her, but other theoeries appeal as well.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">When one person suffers from a delusion it is called 'insanity'; When many people suffer from a delusion it is called 'religion'</font><p></p>


created: 2007-09-04 20:58:26
subject: <b>ouch!</b>
body:
true true! great detective work! i never remember so many of the tiny details. i love it when she gets hers from vandene!<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">&quot;we could change the world tomorrow, this could be a better place.  if you don't like what i'm sayin', then won't you slap my face because i'm bad!&quot; <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/cool.gif" border="0" /><br /></font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-09 06:56:42
subject: <b>It's a great theory</b>
body:
I give you thumbs up, since you could be right.<br /><br />Still, somehow I rather see Berelain as a &quot;good&quot; character and doubt that she would be behind such an intrigue.<br />I wonder why Berelain didn't tell Sevanna to kill Faile if she is such unscrupulous as you believe.<br /><br />Plus, it seems Sevanna doesn't who Faile is in WH, ch.4.  <br /><br />Anyway, you present a very good reasoning, and I'm curious about the discussion.


created: 2004-12-09 08:41:01
subject: <b>impressive</b>
body:
It's very convincing, especially the analysis of the oddities around the mission of Efalin's and Rolan's squad. They were definitely behind something special and it was related with some hunting of nble gai'shain.<br /><br />But Berelain doing it? First, she must be recognized by all the Aiel in the hunting group (else they would too easy kill Berelain or capture her), and so good knowledge of Berelain must mean also better knowledge of who Faile is actually. But Sevanna doesn't know Faile's identity. <br /><br />Another problem is that when Berelain says to Perrin that she doesn't like Faile's capture, Perrin is surprised that she smells sincere by saying it. Since Berelain doesn't know about Perrin's wolfish abilities, she couldn't simulate the smell. So she must be sincere.<br /><br />Also Shaido are not exactly ready to accept wettlandish emissaries for negotiations. Sevanna negotiated with Galina's AS and with Sammael, but after the problems with the &quot;boxes for fools&quot; maybe only Sevannah would be ready for next negotiations and for to come to Sevanna Berelain's messenger must pass a number of Shaido first. That is not impossible, but it's another issue.<br /><br />The presence of Alliandre among the captured also is strange if it was Berelain's plan. Berelain is aware of Alliandre's importance for Perrin's political mission and about the difficulties if Alliandre dissapears, also it was Berelain who brought Alliandre into Perrin's camp. So why would Berelain want Alliandre to be kidnapped? If Berelain was able to manage herself to be not captured by the Aiel, why hasn't she managed the same about Alliandre?


created: 2004-12-09 11:27:16
subject: <b>Good theory</b>
body:
I see you've made a few changes since it was posted on the MB. <br /><br />I would say that I agree with about half.<br /><br />I dislike Berelain and always have since her introduction. So, my defending her leaves quite the bad taste in my mouth. As much as I want her to be this treacherous, the evidence just does not add up. I would love to find out the she is bad and even a DF, but as I said, her actions don't match it.<br /><br />I agree that this was a targeted kidnapping that successfully distracts Perrin from what he supposed to be doing, destroys his mental stability, and primes him for further manipulation by the shadow, and possibly even sets him up for outright betrayal of Rand and the Light.<br /><br />I believe that Berelain has been duped as well. A very talented, politically astute person with very dark intentions has control of the situation. Who? Annoura. Many believe that she is BA, including myself. Annoura is close enough to Berelain to influence her like no one else and has her absolute trust. She can keep Berelain in check and at the same time use a couple DF lackies (maybe even the thieftakers) for personal messangers. It's quite likely that there is coordination on a higher level happening as well - we don't know what Cyndane has been up to, I would say she is a good suspect.<br /><br />So, who is the contact on the Shaido end of things? In short, I don't know. It needs to be looked at closely. One thing that has always bothered me is why Galina has not been able to escape. In a group as large (and corrupt) as the Shaido, there must be at least one cell of DF's, if not more. Galina has probably been flashing all the secret signs she can to gain the aid of fellow DF's. Why no results? Because she is being punished. Her punishment fits right in line with other failers (Liandrin as a servant, the BA in Caemlyn that are servants, etc.). So, I would conclude that there is a high ranking DF in the Shaido camp at work. This DF obviously has some influence over Sevanna in some way, and I would suspect is a Wise One, but this is not necessarily the case. Especially considering that Sammael chose manipulation of the Shaido Wise Ones as opposed to using his superior 'rank' to order a 'Black One'.<br /><br />The supicious behaviour Efalin leads me to believe that she likely one of the DF's in the camp - though not the overall leader.<br /><br /><br />Sorry, about getting so long winded and turning into a different theory.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1"><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/cool.gif" border="0" /><br /><br />Need a book to read - check out my blog for ideas.</font><p><a href="http://nethspace.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">Neth Space</a></p><p></p>


created: 2004-12-09 14:10:18
subject: <b>Complications...</b>
body:
Excellent theory, well-researched and written.  I have a couple things,  though.<br /><br />First, for this to work, there would have to be some serious Darkfriend coordination going on between camps.  You established very well that it's <i>possible</i> for somebody to travel between camps to coordinate this, you just didn't say WHY.  It would be all but impossible for Berelain to carry this out on her own, for her own benefit.  First, why would Sevanna cooperate with a wetlander in the first place?  We know from her POVs that she's not a Darkfriend, just extremely greedy.  She wouldn't cooperate with either Berelain or anyone else that Berelain sent.  If all Sevanna was getting out of the deal was gai'shan, then the capturers would have orders to take Berelain as well -- for Sevanna's a treacherous sort.<br /><br />Second, the ambush.  I don't think that Rolan was &quot;in place&quot; to capture Faile.  They would have no way of knowing in which direction Faile would bolt.  The scouting party does seem a little suspicious, but again, if Sevanna was behind it, it would have consisted of ALL Jumai, without any of the Mera'din who are not &quot;in her pocket.&quot;  The presence of Mera'din in the party is not really suspicious in itself, because we know from Mat that good generals hang the pain of death over scouts that lie.  Besides, the Mera'din joined the Shaido out of their own convincions, not out of treachery, so I don't really see a problem with them being in a scouting party.<br /><br />Finally, the whole thing seems to be unimportant.  Such an elaborate scheme would have to have some sort of purpose simply beyond Berelain getting her jollies out on Perrin.  Everything Perrin is doing in Ghealdan/Altara seems wholly unimportant in the big scheme of things, and it seems that the Forsaken would agree -- there has been absolutely no indication of their being involved in anything with Perrin (and yes, I know that you think Berelain is Mesaana).  Such a grand scheme would have to have some sort of Forsaken involvement, and I think the only possible DF in Perrin's camp is Annoura.  Such a far-reaching plan would mean that Berelain would have to be able to influence the Shaido AND the Dragonsworn, something she is simply not capable of doing by herself.  And to what purpose?  For Perrin to go chasing after the Shaido?  It doesn't seem like that's very detremental to the Light.  It's totally unlikely that a Forsaken has enough insight into Perrin's personality to forsee the agony and character changes he's going through at the end of COT.  No, I don't see any real way that such an elaborate plan could really be orchestrated.


created: 2004-12-09 14:43:06
subject: <b>Impressive reasoning</b>
body:
I gave you a thumbs up.  I've never thought of this, but the whole situation seems too coincindental now that you've listed everything.  One other thing worth mentioning is how close Berelain has always been to the Aiel, from her stay in the Stone of Tear on.  I don't know if it is only with particular Aiel, like Rhuarc, Amys, and Sorilea, but she made friends pretty fast.  <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/aiel.gif" border="0" />


created: 2004-12-09 15:41:03
subject: <b>Very impressive.</b>
body:
That is very impressive theory. I tend to believe that Berelain is &quot;good&quot;. One thing though. She seems like the kind of person to win and be able to show off to the person she beats. Sending faile to the shaido, she would not be able to gloat in a sense about taking perrin from her. Also she calls a break to the game she and faile are playing, and since then has actually been very likable and plutonic. We've heard several places that mayeners are, if anything, outspoken when it comes to romantic situations. It seems that since that time, she has been sober to the fact that she wants to take perrin away from faile. Since faile isn't there, she wont play her little game. The contest for Goldeneyes is a two-player game and one is indisposed. But very impressive research. Put that fine mind on more theorys ( like who killed asmo <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/tongue.gif" border="0" />)<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1"><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/rand.gif" border="0" /> <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/mat.gif" border="0" /> <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/perrin.gif" border="0" /><br />I don't fail. I succeed in finding what doesn't work. <br /><br /><font color="00ff33">Official Sponsor of the Melindhra Fan Club</font></font><p><a href="http://www.illwillpress.com" target="_blank">Feel the Squirley Wrath!!!!</a></p><p></p>


created: 2004-12-09 17:59:32
subject: <b>Great Theory! But I do not buy it.</b>
body:
Dame! Good theory!  Conspiracies, plans with in plans! But alas I have to disagree.<br />First thing that popped into my head as I finished reading your theory was &#8211; Why would she have her captured knowing that Perrin would stop everything, throw whatever plans were laid out the window and track Faile down?  You have shown through your theory that Berelain is smart, calculating and organized.  I can not believe that she would endanger her troops, her responsibilities or Mayene just to win a stupid bet with Faile.  Berelain is just too politically astute; the gain is not worth the loss.<br /><br />My second thought would be that the Shadio wouldn&#8217;t trust any wet lander that has not been made gashain.  So nobody would be able to pass messages from camp to camp.<br /><br />I really like the way you pulled the evidence you made for your theory.  But my math doesn&#8217;t come up with the same answer as you.  Sometimes the lieutenants are ordered to go with the scouting party for a number of reasons.  (1) Trust, I want you to go because I trust your eyes and ears more than anybody else.  (2) Trust, I want you to go and keep an eye on the brotherless (maybe why there were so many). (3) To maintain skills, (4) because she was bored of watching all the gaishain, (5) because she was told to see if she could &#8220;lose&#8221; some of the brotherless, (6) because she was being punished for something.  Like I said you can come up with allot of reasons why a ranking member is sent to do such work. <br /><br />Perrin &amp; Berelain were sent to accomplish a task.  I do not believe she would knowingly do something that would endanger that task.<br /><br />I like the way your mind works, and I commend you on the amount of work you put behind this theory.   <br />


created: 2004-12-09 18:07:08
subject: <b>Very impressive, well thought out</b>
body:
I agree that Faile's capture is not mere coincedence, for the reasons you stated in your theory.<br /><br />And I have suspected that there is more to Berelain's actions than meet the eye.<br /><br />But such elaborate scheming all for the love of one man? Berelain knows her duty, so why would she threaten the company by talks with the Shaido? She knows about them from Cairhien, and should know they'd be ready to turn on anyone, so I can't see her doing such a big plan all for the sake of getting Perrin alone.<br /><br />However, it is a very well thought out and written theory, and I enjoyed reading it. Lots of evidence, though much of it could be interpreted differently, and it was planned out very well. Kudos to you, especially if its correct.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1"><i>CW</i></font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-09 19:08:41
subject: <b>I like your theory but think that Annoura is behind most of this.</b>
body:
You haven't included her in your theory at all, yet Annoura has done many suspicious things. <br /><br />She's encouraged Berelain to play games with Perrin and Faile and is ivolved in visiting Masema. She was shocked when Alliandre swore fealty to Perrin. If Annoura wanted Perrin's mission to fail without attracting the suspicion of Perrin and the Wise Ones, then this would be a good way to go about it.<br /><br />It's quite likely Annoura is Black Ajah - she gave something like the Black Ajah signal to Cadsuane.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1"><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/elayne.gif" border="0" /> Linda Sedai <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/elayne.gif" border="0" /> <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/aessedai.gif" border="0" />Proud member of the Embroiderer's Guild of the White Tower<br /><br /><b><font color="red">FAQ admin</font></b> </font>'cos the FAQ is where it's at.<br /><br /><b>Currently working on:</b> my 70th FAQ<p><a href="http://13depository.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">The thirteenth depository : A Wheel of Time blog</a></p><p></p>


created: 2004-12-09 20:30:00
subject: <b>As usual, you meet the criteria fo a good Theory.</b>
body:
It is well put together.<br /><br />But Perrin`s nose does not lie. She is genuinely concerned about Faile, and is not playing the game without her adversary. That`s all it has ever been-a game. Berelain has no love for Perrin.<br /><br />If Berelain went to all that trouble to get rid of Faile because she wants Perrin, why has she wasted nearly a month?<br /><br />Well, I think I know what you really believe. <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/smile.gif" border="0" /><br /><br />As others have said, Annoura seems to be the snake in the grass.<br /><br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">jofraz <br /><br />Egwene fanatic<br />&quot;Elaida will be removed one way or another&quot;.<br />The seeds are being planted and some have sprouted.<br />The end is near</font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-09 23:03:39
subject: <b>wow....</b>
body:
how do u have so much time on your hands...<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1"><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/rant.gif" border="0" /><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/rant.gif" border="0" /><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/rant.gif" border="0" /><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/rant.gif" border="0" /><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/rant.gif" border="0" /><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/rant.gif" border="0" /><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/rant.gif" border="0" /><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/rant.gif" border="0" /></font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-10 03:30:37
subject: <b>Good theory</b>
body:
I completely agree that it's a set-up. Who set the trap; I don't know. Something itches at the thought of Galina's reaction. I'm fairly sure Galina knew who they were before Faile spoke her name. And the mission she's given them, to get the oath rod...<br /><br />Galina's BA. Is Annoura BA? She &quot;misledd&quot; Colavaere, did she lie?<br /><br />I don't think Berelain did it. But she's taking full advantage of the situation (the night Perrin spent in her bed), so this could still be the motive of whoever did it. Or part of the motive. <br /><br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">The only way to convince me is by providing some evidence!</font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-10 06:28:30
subject: <b>Interesting</b>
body:
You theory is well researched as usual , and very long. Complex plots in the story are a real weakness of mine so I don't really know what to make of it. I also thought about Perrin's nose as a weakness in the theory.<br /><br />If Berelain is Berelain as I believe she is then I don't believe she'll organise it. Firstly , she never saw Perrin for months before they became reacquainted so I don't believe she's obsessed with getting hold of him. She clearly put him out of her mind. When she met him again she started her old tricks. And I don't believe she'd murder or have have Faile murdered , and I don't believe the opposite either. They're jealous women but neither has Lanfear's insanity when it comes to men.<br /><br />Good theory.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">A One Power researcher<br />Defender of Lanfear<br />Grand Ninja-Nae'blis to be feared <br />Original Warder to Isa <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/smile.gif" border="0" /><br />New Warder to Nossie <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/biggrin.gif" border="0" /><br />Toy to Seriana <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/winky.gif" border="0" /><br />Mystified by a Fan <br />Bonded Phelix - I was young, it happened so fast.</font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-11 18:09:35
subject: <b>Excellent points all</b>
body:
I'm glad that everybody enjoyed the theory.  I know my ideas seem way out there to some of you folks, but I'm happy they give everyone something new and different to consider.  Everyone raised some excellent objections, and I'll do my best to address them.  We'll start with the easiest first <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/smile.gif" border="0" /><br /><br />Unfortunately, that means you, sidious <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/biggrin.gif" border="0" />  Berelain is actually quite interested in both Perrin and Mat throughout LoC, as she indicates when Rand arrives in Cairhien in <i>The Wheel of a Life</i>: &quot;I trust all is well with my Lord Dragon, and with Andor....And with your friends, Mat Cauthon and Perrin Aybara, as well.&quot;  Berelain's comment is followed by Rand's thought: &quot;She always asked after Mat and Perrin, however often he told her one was on his way to Tear and the other he had not seen since before going to the Waste.&quot;  When Rand leaves Cairhien in <i>Matters of Toh</i>, Berelain says, &quot;When you see Perrin Aybara next...please give him my warmest wishes.  And Mat Cauthon, also.&quot;  It seems clear to me that Berelain never does put Perrin out of her mind.<br /><br />Another potential problem that a dragonburned fool, AgingComputer and Sampson all suggested was that Sevanna wouldn't want to deal with wetlanders, especially considering that she was burned by Caddar and his traveling boxes.  The truth is, however, that Sevanna has a well established history of turning to wetlanders that can provide the things she wants.  Before Caddar/Sammael, Jasin Natael/Asmodean provided Couladin with the dragon tatoos that allowed him to challenge Rand.  I don't think there is any question that Sevanna was involved in that on some level.  Before we ever learn about Caddar, Sevanna is also working with the Tower Aes Sedai that are on their way to Cairhien because she wants to use them to get Rand.  Then there's Caddar.  It's important to remember that Sevanna didn't only turn to him for a method of escaping the other approaching clans.  She also worked with him to get something that would control Rand, and then something to control Aes Sedai.  It's also pertinent to point out that in <i>Questions and an Oath</i> she thinks to herself that she anticipated Caddar's betrayal, if not exactly what form it would take.  Given this history, I don't think it is unreasonable at all to suggest she might deal with yet another wetlander that could show her some important people to take as gai'shain.<br /><br />a dragonburned fool also mentioned the issue of the raiders recognizing Berelain.  Again, I'm not sure this is too much of a problem.  Berelain is wearing her &quot;fur-trimmed red cloak, thick enough for two blankets&quot; in <i>Beginnings</i>.  It's a garment that Berelain wears more than once and could be distinctive enough to single her out to the raiders.  There's also an interesting quote in <i>Blacksmith's Puzzle</i>: &quot;Everyone knew that (Berelain) often rode out in the mornings...&quot;  I think it's possible that Berelain could have met with one or two Shaido on one of these morning rides, and they could have recognized her from that meeting.<br /><br />Etzel suggested that Sevanna didn't recognize Faile when she came to see Efalin's catch.  I'm not sure that is entirely accurate, actually.  Alliandre spills the beans about being a queen and having sworn fealty to one of the people present.  Sevanna apparently arrived just in time to overhear that comment, because her first quote in <i>Offers</i> is: &quot; 'Is that true Galina?  Is she a wetlander queen?....And a queen's,' her tongue tripped unfamiliarly, 'liege-lady?  That means that Queen swore oath to her?  A truly powerful woman, then.' &quot;  I think the mere fact that Sevanna, Therava and Someryn all take a very quick interest in this particular group of gai'shain indicates they expected <i>something</i>.  After all, there are hundreds of gai'shain in Sevanna's personal retinue, and it's unlikely that she immediately takes such an intense personal interest in all of them when they were captured.  I think Sevanna's comment can be interpreted to mean that she expected some &quot;truly powerful&quot; women, but she didn't receive details on their exact personalities or appearances.  Such details probably wouldn't be too important to Sevanna in the future sense of dealing with someone proposing that she could capture gai'shain.  So long as it was clear they were nobility, that would probably be enough to pique Sevanna's interest. <br /><br />AgingComputer's suggestion that all Jumai would be sent on this mission would be problematic for Sevanna in my view.  First, I think it's important to note that there isn't any indication that all the Maidens are necessarily Jumai.  It's enirely possible that the the 75 or so Shaido Maidens that are on this mission come from several different septs.  The reason that employing all Jumai could be problematic is that it would almost certainly raise Therava's suspicions.  IIRC, the Jumai have about 1,000 spears in their sept.  If Sevanna tried to gather that many Jumai together for a mission, I think that Therava would probably learn about it.  It makes sense, after all, that Therava would be keeping a pretty close eye one the Jumai in particular to make sure that Sevanna is using them to gather the septs together, and not sending them out for her own personal gain.<br /><br />I'm going to talk a little more about Berelain at the end of this post, but I thought that one particular detail should be singled out here.  jofraz and a dragonburned fool both pointed to a statement that Berelain made in <i>Flags</i>: &quot;And before we get to food, and business, I want you to know that no one hopes Faile is alive more than I.&quot;  As they rightly point out, Berelain's expression and more importantly her scent both indicate that this statement is entirely truthful.  My answer is, of course she's being honest.  One thing that Berelain wants to do is humilate Faile.  From Berelain's perspective, I don't think anything would be quite as satisfying as knowing that Faile didn't get off easy, as it were, by getting herself killed.  What could be a better fate for Berelain's rival then being stripped naked in the snow, hauled miles away from her husband and forced into menial labour for Sevanna?  I think this also answers the lodlom's point about being able to gloat about her rivals downfall.  Berelain does want Faile to live so that she can fulfill the the promise she made to Faile oh so long ago in <i>Customs of Mayene</i>.<br /><br />Now I get to the two more difficult concepts to address.  Annoura's role in all this, and the broader goals that Berelain may harbor in precipitating these events.  kcf, AgingComputer, linda_sedai and Heiti all raised the question of Annoura's possible allegience to the Black Ajah.  I know this is a fairly popular idea around here, but I don't buy it.  At least not on the basis of the most often cited evidence - Annoura's predisposition to rubbing her thumbs when she's nervous, and her response to Cadsuane when she questions her and Merana about their role in the &quot;vileness&quot; after the Aiel War.  There's actually a thread on the MB about these particular details, and rather than reiterate my points, here's the address of my response for those that are interested:<br /><br />http://www.wotmania.com/wotmessageboardshowmessage.asp?MessageID=163400<br /><br />I did want to add some details to my thoughts about Annoura here.  Her role in the events that swirl around Perrin is actually pretty confusing.  I think the chapter title <i>Blacksmith's Puzzle</i> is incredibly apt for the situation.  There are many currents swirling around Perrin, and a lot them seem to deal directly with Annoura and her role in events.  A couple of examples of what I mean.  In <i>A Goatpen</i> we get: &quot;Annoura made a sound, very nearly a grunt, and turned her head from the sight; she herself stayed away from the Wise Ones and did not like seeing the other sisters with them.&quot;  There are other indications in PoD that Annoura avoids the Wise Ones as much as she can.  Yet when Perrin awakens in Berelain's tent in <i>Flags</i>, Berelain informs him that Annoura has gone to speak with the Wise Ones.  When Perrin leaves Berelain's tent he notices: &quot;For that matter, there were no footprints between the three camps at all.  If Annoura was with the Wise Ones, she had been on the hill for some time.&quot;  After that, Annoura is essentially absent from the rest of WH.  So here we already see something of a shift in Annoura's character.  She doesn't like the relationship between the Wise One's and the Dragonsworn Aes Sedai, but just after Faile's capture she overcomes her reticence enough to go talk to the Wise Ones for an extended period.  If Berelain is telling the truth, that is.<br /><br />The next thing we learn about Annoura is in <i>The Forging of a Hammer</i> when Selande reveals that Haviar saw Masuri and someone he believes is Annoura visiting the Prophet.  Again this is showing some change in the role that Annoura is playing within the camp.  The next scene involving Annoura is really interesting.  In <i>Blacksmith's Puzzle</i>, after the scouts signal Masema's approach, there is a drawn interaction between Annoura, Masuri and some of the Wise Ones.  Whatever is happening, Annoura is apparently being drawn in against her better judgement.  She's shaking her head, she tries to walk away, and Masuri brings her back by speaking sharply to her.  Perrin watches this interplay and wonders if the channelers have all formed a circle, commenting to himself that Nevarin would probably be leading if they did.  I think this is exactly right.  When Perrin demands to know what they are planning, Annoura begins to answer but is cut off by Carelle, and that leads to her glaring at Masuri.  It is eventually Nevarin that answers Perrin demand.  I think this is all showing that Annoura got roped into the circle by Masuri, and Nevarin really is leading.<br /><br />Next, in <i>When to Wear Jewels</i>, Annoura is waiting for Berelain and Perrin to join the group that is waiting to go to So Habor.  When they do join Annoura, Gallenne, the soldiers and the carters: &quot;Thin braids hanging down her chest from the cowl of her cloak, the Aes Sedai barely seemed to notice the woman she was supposed to advise.  Back stiff, she peered fixedly toward the low Aiel tents...&quot;  Annoura doesn't relax until Seonid and Masuri join the group, leaving the Wise Ones behind.  I think that this is ultimately what lies behind Berelain's comment in <i>What Must Be Done</i> about Annoura needing to mend what has been torn between the two women.  I think that Annoura is too much of a wallflower to have engineered Faile's capture.  She seems to me to be more at the mercy of the other strong personalities around her then directing those personalities.<br /><br />One last thing about Annoura that I wanted to add.  linda_sedai mentioned her shocked reaction when Alliandre swore fealty to Perrin.  I think this is a genuine reaction, and entirely natural considering the context.  Swearing fealty to the Dragon Reborn is one thing, but, from Annoura's perspective, a Queen swearing fealty to a blacksmith that is not more than a jumped-up country Lord would be shocking.  There is also an interesting quote from <i>In So Habor</i> that describes Annoura's attitude towards Perrin: &quot;They had agreed to leave the bargaining to Berelain....Annoura had smiled thinly at the suggestion that a jumped-up country lad might take a hand.  She did not call him that - she could 'my Lord' as smoothly as Masuri or Seonid - yet it was clear she thought some things clearly above his ability.&quot;  If this is Annoura's thinking <i>after</i> Alliandre swore fealty, I can only imagine that she was completely shocked by Alliandre's decision.<br /><br />Finally, to the point of Berelain's overall objectives.  PseudoDragon, like most of you seemed to raise the question of what, ultimately, does Berelain get out of the situation other than a better attempt to make Perrin her plaything?  There are two ways to look at this, and I'll propose what is likely to be the more acceptable one first.  From Berelain's introduction in <i>People of the Dragon</i> it has been apparent that she is politically astute.  She's always been looking to attach herself to politically powerful men.  Rand or Rhuarc, either one would have fit the bill, I think.  Failing those two, she has cast her net further afield, and felt that Perrin represented a good opportunity.  To readers, and certain astute characters in the book, it is entirely obvious that not only Rand, but Perrin and Mat are also destined to be great men.  Probably the three greatest of the Age, with Hawkwing thrown in there somewhere as well.  I think that Berelain recognizes this and has decided to pull out all the stops in her attempts to be the woman that rises along with Perrin.  I think she stands to gain immensely if she can actually win her contest with Faile.  As for a dragon burned fool's concerns about including Alliandre in her scheme, Perrin, as the Queen's liege, may be in a political position to nominate the next Queen of Ghealdan.  Perhaps Berelain fancies such a title for herself.<br /><br />Lastly for the second perspective on Berelain's objectives.  Some of you know that I've been suggesting on the MB that Berelain is actually Mesaana in disguise, and I do think this entire situation is fairly decent evidence of that.  Perrin has gone wildly astray in his hunt for Faile and that has placed the entire cause of the Light at risk.  Perrin's original task was to collect Alliandre and Masema and bring them both back to Rand.  This would have greatly helped Rand by calming some of the turmoil that is currently raging across parts of Ghealdan, Amadicia and Altara.  It would also have consolidated his hold on the center and east of Randland, and provided a strategically important breakwater for the Seanchan's advance in Ghealdan.  With firm control of both Illian and Ghealdan, and the Moutains of Mist protecting his flanks, Rand could easily threaten the Seanchan on two fronts.  Perrin's failure has placed Rand's military alliance in a precarious position.  Not only does Rand need to worry about the Seanchan advance into Illian that is reported in CoT, but Ghealdan is basically open for invasion.  If Ghealdan falls, Andor and the rest of the east will be severely threatened.<br /><br />Basically, I think this entire situation plays directly into the hands of the Shadow.  Perrin is putting not only himself at risk, remember the oft quoted passages tying the failure of one ta'veren to the failure of all, but he's allowing chaos to multiply with every mile he follows the Shaido.  Such a convoluted scheme does seem more akin to the plotting of the Forsaken than it does to the little political games of the nobles, and I think events will eventually bear out this interpretation of events.<br /><br />In any case, thanks to everyone who responded.  And I surely applaud anyone that managed to read this long-winded response.  Sorry that I didn't mention eireann Mystical Mythic dRagon (I substitute teach, so that gives me lots of time to read and write down quotes <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/smile.gif" border="0" />).  Oh, and lodlom, your last question is fairly easy.  Mesaana killed Asmodean, of course, but perhaps that's a discussion for another theory <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/biggrin.gif" border="0" /><br /><br /><br /><font size="-1"><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/aessedai.gif" border="0" /> Diomedes <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/baalzamon.gif" border="0" /></font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-11 19:04:45
subject: <b>Quite an interesting discussion</b>
body:
I'm still not inclined to agree, though.<br /><br />On the scouting party venue, you're right that at this point there are many more septs with Sevanna than just the Jumai.  However, this points even more towards a less suspicious conclusion.  We know from Rand's numerous POVs that the Maidens are very protective towards one placed under their charge, and that the society that a leader comes from frequently represents them in numerous ways.  We also know that Sevanna has chosen the Maidens as her representatives, despite never having been a Maiden herself.  This could be the reason for the disproportinate number of Maidens in the scouting party.  And as for the presence of the Mera'din, Sevanna says in POD that the numbers of Mera'din outnumber the Jumai something like 10 to 1 (don't have the book on me).  So even with the vast numbers of Shaido, the Mera'din still represent a large chunk.  Not knowing the exact makeup of the scouting party, it's not safe to conclude that there were ONLY Mera'din and Maidens in the party.  Even if there were, perhaps it was simply their &quot;society's&quot; turn to scout.<br /><br />As for Berelain's motives, I don't think you gave a good enough explanation of them.  I'm simply not prepared to accept Berelain = Mesaana (but that's just my opinion).  I'd like to talk about your first statements about possible motivation.<br /><br />First, if Berelain is truly a &quot;good guy,&quot; she should be aware of the consequences of Faile's capture.  Out of all the other main characters, Berelain is perhaps the ONLY one who knows the extent of Perrin's love for Faile.  If anyone could have forseen Perrin's emotional breakdown, it would have been her.  I don't think she would have seen any response of Perrin's to Faile's capture as a Good Thing for the Light.<br /><br />And as for Berelain's hopes for the throne of Ghealdan, that is simply ridiculous.  Berelain's goals have been, and always will be, centered around Mayene and it's survival in the face of Tear and the Last Battle.  If she would go so far as to claim the throne of Ghealdan, Mayene would disown her as the First, because she would be totally incapable of governing two nations on opposite corners of the continent.


created: 2004-12-13 14:18:45
subject: <b>AgingComputer</b>
body:
In <i>The Scent of Madness</i>, Sulin reports back to Perrin with all the items that were gathered from the site of the ambush.  When she throws out the arrows, &quot;just over half&quot; are Mera'din.  <br /><br />In <i>Beginnings</i> and <i>Customs</i>, the breakdown of male and female Aiel is pretty even.  Men have captured Faile and Lacile while women have captured Morgase and Arrela; two Maidens in Arrela's case.  Alliandre, Bain and Chiad's captures are never specifically described, although in Bain and Chiad's case I think it's safe to assume they are Maidens.  During the scuffle in <i>Changes</i>, two men pry Maighdin's teeth out of a third's hand, and a man and woman come running from the forest with switches.  In both of these chapters, RJ seems to be very careful about representing the men and women in equal numbers. <br /><br />In terms of the number of spears that Sevanna commands, you're remembering that quote in <i>Questions and an Oath</i> somewhat incorrectly.  The 10:1 ratio is comparing the number of Mera'din that Sevanna brought with the Jumai compared to the number that went with other septs.  My guess of 1,000 spears before isn't accurate, either.  In that same chapter, Meira says that they have &quot;little more than a third&quot; of the 10,000 that attacked at Dumai's wells &quot;even counting the Brotherless.&quot;  At the time of the raid, Therava notes that the Jonine will be the fifth sept to join Sevanna, so both numbers of Shaido and Mera'din spears will have increased.<br /><br />How all these little details effect the specific make-up of the raiding party is certainly debatable.  From my perspective it seems like a reasonable assumption that Sevanna sent out 75 trustworthy Maidens, probably from various septs, with 75 Brotherless.  The slightly greater number of non-Shaido arrows could be attributed to a larger number of Maidens being used to capture Bain and Chiad.  I also think that the second man's comment after bringing in Lacile, &quot;Sevanna will have to be satisfied,&quot; seems to echo Rolan's criticism and makes it more likely he's a Brotherless rather than a male Shaido.<br /><br />As for Berelain, I think it's pretty clear we assess her character differently.  From my perspective, everything she's done has been to further her own political ambitions.  My comment about Ghealdan was perhaps overly specific.  My point was that Alliandre's removal doesn't weaken Berelain's position, and could actually open future opportunities if the First is successful in tying her leash on Perrin.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1"><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/aessedai.gif" border="0" /> Diomedes <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/baalzamon.gif" border="0" /></font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-16 08:39:26
subject: <b>Very nice</b>
body:
That has to be one of the most thoroughly researched and well written theories I have ever had the pleasure to read. My hat's off to you! <br /><br />I didn't realize the scouting party that captured Faile and the rest was so large. This does seem to add some question to how and why Berelain was able to escape from their grasp when it appears they were searching for more gai'shain of noble rank.<br /><br />Questions of why Sevanna desires such nobles comes to mind. Is she like Graendal and finds it pleasing to have these nobles serving her? Or is she sly enough to realize they could be used as bargaining chips to gain more power? <br /><br />She must have an ulterior motive in mind to keep taking more gai'shain while Therava and others are obviously against the idea. Slowing their movement and adding more mouths to feed cannot be worth the trouble without some sort of plan, IMO.<br /><br />As for Berelain's involvement, I don't know if I'm convinced, but it is mysterious if not downright suspicious she managed to get away so easily from Aiel. Like you, she is a character I am keeping a close eye on, though.<br /><br />Great theory, BTW.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">Where once was Shadow<br /> Now reigns <b>Light</b><br /> Darkness fades<br /> <b>In</b>to <b>the Night</b><br /><br />Wotmania's Theory Post has the most!<br />Submit one of your own today <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/jordan.gif" border="0" /><br /><br />Wotmania's richest Wotmaniac!</font><p></p>


created: 2005-04-21 18:15:58
subject: <b>Masema</b>
body:
Ever notice that Masema doesn't seem to want to continue towards Rand? Rather than lay the blame entirely at Berelain's feet, though I'm almost positive she was in on it somehow. It's all too bloody suspicious if you ask me. But what if Masema and Berelain were plotting together? Masema, also, could easily have sent messengers to the Shaido, allying with Berelain to keep Perrin from hauling him back to Rand. One last, huge point. <br /><br />Masema is against using the power to follow a direct command from the &quot;lord Dragon, may the blah blah...&quot; yet he reasons that Perrin getting Faile back will please Rand, so they can Travel. Any thoughts??<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1"><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/rand.gif" border="0" />May The Dragon Ride Again On The Winds Of Time<br /><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/bandredhand.gif" border="0" />&quot;Carai al Caldazar!!&quot; <br /><br />Leader of the one man army on Cadsuane and all the non-Moiraine-or-Egwene and Co- AS. <br /><br />Seeking personal revenge on Masema for being an idiot. <br /></font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-11 09:43:27
subject: <b>Very Likely Solution if the Problem Occurs</b>
body:
We've already seen that lack of food is becoming an issue - Perrin's bunch was having trouble finding food.  However, Jordan may end the series in a short enough time frame that he never has to resolve this issue.


created: 2004-12-11 13:17:39
subject: <b>good theory</b>
body:
Don't agree with Jordan stopping before the famine can start. We've read from several sources (Perrin, Egwene, Elayne?, ...) that there is a major problem with food supplies and protecting food from decay. Jordan would not have mentioned this if he had no sollution for this and we know he is always very reallistic and will never use a &quot;Deus Ex Machina&quot;.<br />Plus, when he first wrote EOTW, he was tinking in the way of: &quot;this is a trilogy, so I need to put the several sollutions towards the several problems somewhere in there early enough, but so hidden people won't notice them.&quot; Now, it's already so long a series, and probably he won't write than 2/3 more books max (Mr Jordan, if you read this, in the famous words of Treebeard: &quot;Don't be hasty, master Jordan&quot;, i.e.: no rushing, please) so I think it is becoming time that the several subplots are coming to an end. And the Song is, according to me at least, a &quot;mayor subplot&quot;. Anyways good thinking.


created: 2004-12-11 13:38:25
subject: <b>no way</b>
body:
if i understand it correctly the song is something that influence men not plants<br /><br />the ogier can influence plants<br /><br />and about the nym if there were nym the song won't be needed<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">I slept and dreamed that life was beauty.  <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/nynaeve.gif" border="0" /><br />I awoke -- and found that life was duty.   <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/lan.gif" border="0" /><br /> <br />Ours not to reason why <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/loial.gif" border="0" /><br />Ours but to do and die.<img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/uno.gif" border="0" /><br /><br />may you find a she that will bring you many cubs  <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/hopper.gif" border="0" /><br /><br /></font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-11 14:37:29
subject: <b>Agree with the title</b>
body:
The Song needs to be found. Will Nym be needed? How will they come about? <br /><br />I think this might be a subplot that will not be descirbed to its end. After TG, though, there might be ahint of a song rising (maybe prophesy: The fourth age came with the song, the dragon's blood brought the land to bloom, or some such.<br /><br />In short: It will be found, but I doubt we'll read all that much about it.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">The only way to convince me is by providing some evidence!</font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-11 15:58:07
subject: <b>in retrospect...</b>
body:
I voted 'yes' on this theory, but in retrospect, someone brought up a good point. The Ogier are the ones that help plants grow, and the Nym helped the Ogier, not the tinkers. I think the song will be something that the world will need to remember after Tarmon Gaidon.


created: 2004-12-12 05:59:23
subject: <b>Look back at Rhuidean</b>
body:
Where Rand looked back at his ancestors; I don't have my books with me, but I believe that one of his ancestors during the war agaist the shadow (right before the Breaking) goes to a farm where people sing a song with help from Aiel, Ogier and a Nim. After they have finished singing there is a description of the field where the plants have grown during faster that they normally wood. They are not yet full-grown, but they have grown within a day to a length they would normally need a month?(something like that) to grow to this height


created: 2004-12-12 20:10:57
subject: <b>So where's the theory part???</b>
body:
I don't want to seem cruel or insensitive&#8230;.so, please take the following statements as constructive criticisms.<br /><br />To the author of this &quot;theory&quot;, I would like to be encouraging and I'm all for people submitting theories... but this really isn't a theory... this is a desired conclusion without supporting evidence other than a quick run through of approximate numbers of men in arms roaming about the land...and skewed observations of harvest yields and consumptions totals of some of the areas in the story.  This probably, in all likelihood, should have been a message board post rather than a theory post, since none of your statements are supported in any fashion...with the exception of your one (WOT FAQ) quote.  Perhaps, you can narrow it down for the reader...where exactly in WOT FAQ do we look??  (Also please refer to PseudoDragon's MB post entitled On theories and such - posted: 12/12/2004 1:01:15 AM and especially read over Diomedes responses.) The WOT FAQ isn't necessarily the best source of information... Which makes this even more so an opinion...an unsupported opinion.<br /><br />I want to restate that I am not trying to be a smart ass or cruel or even remotely mean... but I don't see any theory in your TP.  You state that you think <i>&quot;the song needs to be found not just to add to the plot or to unite the Aiel and Tinkers, the song is needed to feed all the armies running around the main land&quot; </i>.  So, how is this a theory...???  Perhaps, I am overly dense, but I don't see the relevance to the story.  Some storylines of the WoT will not be resolved&#8230; and this may be one of them.  The Song may not ever be found.  The Song might be found after TG.  The Song might have already been found (or never lost) in Shara or some other land.  You don't attempt to answer any other possibility or to prove or disprove this &quot;theory&quot; other than to state that there are lot guys running around with pointy objects and some of them aren&#8217;t farming and they all need to be fed, which hasn't been a problem in the current storyline.  <br /><br />To make this a theory, you might need to prove in greater supported detail, why the Song absolutely needs to be found&#8230;.  And why these men need to be fed&#8230;and perhaps a stronger case of how the Song is to be used.  You touch on it superficially&#8230;no Nyms.  So, what other options do you propose?  And if you can come up with other options of using the Song without Nyms&#8230;than is the Song really necessary?  Perhaps another way without Nyms or Song can be employed.  <br /><br />These are just some of my thoughts&#8230;<br /><br />I'm sorry if this comes across as mean. It really isn't my intent.  I hope that some of my questions might help you out to revise this post.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">We really swing in the <font color="green">Green</font>...<br />-JAGW <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/wheel.gif" border="0" /> --Just Another swingin'...errr...sword and never in the <font color="green">Lime</font>light.<br /><br />It ain't easy being <font color="green">Green</font>... <i>--Kermit the Frog</i></font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-12 20:44:53
subject: <b>The song...</b>
body:
I totally agree with JAGW. This isn't really a theory. But on to points for your post.<br /><br />The song the tinkers are searching for is not the same one the nym used to grow things. <br /><br />You state in your opening line <b>The song needs to be found not just to add to the plot<i><u> or to unite the Aiel and Tinkers,</u></i> the song is needed to feed all the armies running around the main land. </b><br /><br />So why would finding the song unite the Aiel and the tinkers? You don't support that at all. The aiel who go through the rhuiden pillars learn that they used to be the same as the tinkers, and if you read it carefully the aiel who decided to stay with the wagons leave saying they're going to find the song. They don't mention any specific song, and they don't mention the nym or growing anything. They're looking for the life they were forced to leave. In essence those aiel are searching for a way to return to the AoL.<br /><br />I highly doubt that RJ would do anything like bring back the nym. He is trying to show that Rand is pushing the world into a more technical society. The more likely solution would be that Rand's school in Cairhien discovers a new way to fertilize crops, or they discover more profitable strains of grains. There are many ways that the food issue can be resolved sans nym. <br /><br />In summary, this is highly unlikely, and I am voting no. Aside from that, it needs more support for it to really be a theory, but see JAGW's post for info on that aspect.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">Warder to Be'lal's Girl<br />Wotmania Lottery<br /><br /><br /><br />&quot;Meh. A good relationship is like fireworks: loud, explosive, and liable to maim you if you hold on too long.&quot; ~ Sven, Questionable Content<br /><br />Bonded by Sidious. <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/flamingsword.gif" border="0" /></font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-13 08:14:28
subject: <b>Famine - yes, but Song?</b>
body:
The coming famine in WoTworld is out of any doubt, and I agree that the great amount of armies is a significant factor of making the situation much more difficult and also that it will be one of the first place where the lack of food will be noticed. This part of the analysis is nice, and there is even more to be added (like the shortage of food storages caused by the too long dry summer just before the current state of non-ending winter).<br /><br />But would the song help feeding the armies when they become to starve? The song is sung when the crops are seeded, i.e. they must first grow up, be harvested etc, and that will take some months... Another thing to be done first is to change the weather form the fixed winter as it is now (there is a Bowl of winds, but it's yet not in connection with Rand), and a mass feeding of the part of world controlled by the Dragon will need not only one Song-singing party, but many of them for to work on amount of crops big enough for to produce sufficient food to feed the world.<br /><br />Also the Age of Legends had some technologies and permanent OP circuits that made things possible, that are impossible now. So RJ said that now Aginor would be incapable to breed any new kind of Shadowspawn because a required (non-channeling) technology is not present. Most of the wonders of AoL were produced by a combination of channeling and non-channeling technologies. If Trollocs cannot be produced now, so a Nym that is much more complicite being, is not very likely to be possible to be produced only using some weave, without the corresponding non-channeling developed high technology.


created: 2004-12-13 10:58:46
subject: <b>I agree</b>
body:
I agree because all of this talk about lack of food, wardings failing, and weevils has to be going somewhere.  Perhaps The Song is not RJ's answer to this problem, but it is the most viable solution I can think of.  RJ is too intelligent of a writer to bring up food shortages so many times without coming up with a solution, or some type of closure, eventually.  <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/loial.gif" border="0" /><br /><br />-Eireann


created: 2004-12-13 13:06:49
subject: <b>I do not think until after TG</b>
body:
I think everybody is being a little hasty in criticizing this post.  RJ hasn&#8217;t finished the latest book Knife of Dreams.  So there is minimal fodder to write a new incredible theory.  <br />I give you credit for still being interested and posting theories.<br />But I have to agree with the people who have stated that you do not have enough information.  You have too many open questions.<br />I would agree that RJ has foreshadowed the use of the &#8220;Song&#8221;.  I would also agree that forces of light and the innocent bystanders are having issues with getting enough calorie intake to function on a level that they will require to win the last battle.  I do not see how this can be realistically solved with the time frames and how activities are reaching a crux.<br />First winter has to end so the fields can be plowed and tilled, the crops planted and then given enough time to grow.  They will then need to be harvested and sent to locations where it is needed.  Normally this takes 2 seasons if not longer.  Not to mention that the people growing the food will keep enough to ensure their own survival.  <br />The seed song would enable them to speed up the process and give a more abundant yield.  But can they learn it, organize and implement the actions needed prior to winter ending?  Do they know what is required to pull off the seed song?  The number of &#8220;aiel&#8221;, the number of Ogier, and like everybody has stated what about the Nym?  Do they need to do something to the field prior to the singing?  Do they have to be placed in a certain order?  <br />I know we have Rands information from going through the Ter&#8217;angreal in Rhuidin.  But that is an over view and not details.  I would imagine that the details are key in executing this type of project. <br />I do not see them getting all the information required to conduct the seed song, for the up coming growing season.  I think RJ will either mute the lack of food, or come up with an incredible scheme that will produce enough food for all.  <br />Note:  The lack of food and food production should set back everybody for a couple of years, even if they win TG.  Realistically, the population would take a giant hit.  Some of the people who die will be taking needed knowledge and expertise with them.  Rebuilding after TG wouldn&#8217;t be a fun time.  This would be the time for the knowledge and implementation of the seed singing to crop up again.  A new golden age! Peace Love &amp; happiness.<br />


created: 2004-12-13 18:36:40
subject: <b>The decaying food is from the Dark One</b>
body:
It's his latest gambit on the order of the winter in EotW and the recent drought.  Now he's going at it another way.  That is the only thing that could beat wards from the AoL.  I have seen no evidence that the agricultural system is as described in this theory.  For one thing, Tear sells massive grain surplus to Cairhien and Illian, and has been doing so for years.  Grain is not grown on a small family plot.  Jordan has stated that the time period is late Renaissance, minus gunpowder.  There was large-scale agriculture in the Middle Ages.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">Cannoli<br />&quot;I'm German-Irish&quot; - Tom Hagen<br />&#8220;There is no safety for honest men, except by believing all possible evil of evil men&quot; - Edmund Burke<br /><b>Inde muagdhe Aes Sedai misain ye!</b><br />Deus vult!</font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-14 13:03:31
subject: <b>New Settlers</b>
body:
I think everyone is overthinking everything and underestimating the new settlers from Seanchan.  When Mat describes what Ebou Dar he talks about giant ships as far as the eye can see and hundreds upon thousands of settlers disembarking and heading into the country side.  With all those new settlers and the Seanchan army keeping order I think that will solve the food problem, it my take a season or two but the shortage of food doesn't seem to be at the extreme level yet.  No one is cutting rations in half yet.


created: 2005-01-03 15:07:47
subject: <b>Perhaps..</b>
body:
Has anyone considered that perhaps the song has no inherent quality to help crops grow?  We know from tEotW that the Nym can make plants grow.  Perhaps it takes some of their strength or life-force to do so.  Perhaps the song is only needed to provide the Nym with the inspiration to dance over the fields (who doesn't feel like a fool dancing with no music?  Who would dance for hours on end with no music?)  And if the crops were not grown by the song, but by the Nym then finding the song may prove pointless for food production.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1"><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/approve.gif" border="0" /> Survivor of Historical Inquizition ... barely <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/biggrin.gif" border="0" /><br /><br />Who can say if I've been changed for the better, but because I knew you I have been changed for good -- Wicked<br /></font><p></p>


created: 2005-09-23 12:38:50
subject: <b>One way to find the Song</b>
body:
I think the glass columns in Aiel Waste can help with that.<br />Call for volunteers among Tinkers, then ask the Aiels to let them go there. The survivors may learn the Song.<br /><br />The conditions for this theory:<br />1. The One Power imbued there affect racial memory of everyone, not just Aiels. It means that if other people than Aiels go there they may learn about the history of their bloodlines.<br />2. The Song must be learnable in the memory. <br />3. The Song must be singable in the real world, without the help of the Nym. <br />Off course there are some other troubles. But the 3 conditions above is most important to find the Song.<br />So, What do you thinks?<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">Does 'Daughter of the Nine Moons' mean anything to you?<br /><br />Yes. It means your daughter has nine asses.<br />     -Uncle Jeff<br /><br />Uh, you mean four-and-a-half, right? Or did you mean a nice pair?<br />     -me in a confused state of mind</font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-13 07:20:42
subject: <b>Worlds and times</b>
body:
Time is really a function of changes. But there is also another thing about time. Time is the synchronization of the changes in some &quot;all&quot;. Every object in your room, including molecules, atoms, subatomic particles etc., when having changes, will take part in the &quot;time&quot; inside the room. So the time depends of the &quot;all&quot; to that it's applied. And here comes the monkey wrench.<br /><br />Your considerations about the &quot;unchanging of changes&quot; are the only possible option if we have only one &quot;all&quot;. Your example is a closed room in the world: there's no other &quot;all&quot; implied. In the physics it will be called a closed system. But not allway the situation is a situation of a closed system. Sometimes there are more than one &quot;all&quot; in the game. And WoT-world is definitely such a case with more &quot;all&quot;-s. There are realities that have not the same time conditions as the world. And some of them have a level higher than that of the normal world (the Creator created it and remains outside time, DO is outside the time but affects the world, the Pattern in some sense is controlling the changes in the world according to some not immanent &quot;will&quot;...). There are also worlds (Tel'aran'rhiod, the mirror worlds, the world of Aelfinns and Eelfinns) with time not exactly matching to that of the normal world and people from Rand's world can access them under some conditions and changes taken there have effect in the normal world. Briefly we have multiple independent systems of change, and it's possible for some beings to switch these systems.<br /><br />So examples like that of the ice in the room are not sufficient to explain the time issues. Another example will be a video tape played. There are changes in the movey with their good causality. Persons from inside the movey cannot deliberately time-travel. But the world of the movey is not stand-alone. It is dependent of the tape (or whatever kind of bearer it would be. People from outside the movey can interfere and make changes in any &quot;moment&quot; of the movey time so much time they wanted. If a person from outside can get in... like in the case of a virtual reality (or actually every interactive computer program can be the example here), such logged in actor can make changes, and then log out, do something to the code of the virtual world and login back in some past moment. The world of the Wheel has such &quot;outside&quot; where character can &quot;logout&quot;. Every WoT-lander when death, logs out of the world and his/her soul goes somewhere, and after a while it loggs in again as another thread.<br /><br />Another thing that can happen with a character in a program, is for it to perform an action that can cause error in the code of it's own identity. It can cause the last changes made by the programs to be lost and teh program to must restart from a past moment. There is no unchanging the changes one by one, these changes are just lost en masse. This is what IMO happens in the case of balefire. It can happen because the world the WoT characters live in, is not the ultimate reality, but is maintaned in existence by another &quot;code&quot; - the Pattern. Balefire is an action that causes a &quot;system error&quot; of range dependent of the OP in the balefire. And due to this &quot;system error&quot; all the changes for a time period are simply lost. En masse, without performing any undoing to any particular change. The characters as having souls, i.e. remembering the changes not only in the pattern, i.e. have independent parralel recording feature, can remember the balefired time, and this is the only thing left after balefire. But this is only because people record the changes they witness on two different places parallely: int he main pattern and in their Pattern-not-entirelly-dependent personal memory.


created: 2004-12-13 10:33:40
subject: <b>Incorrect</b>
body:
Balefire as stated during it's various uses throughout the series, effectively &quot;burns away&quot; a thread that has already been woven into the pattern. Thus in effect, they ceased to exist, and any actions they might have taken &quot;no longer happened.&quot; However, anyone who has seen, heard about, or otherwise knows about these events &quot;still remember them.&quot; My biggest and best piece of evidence? When Rand is in his Rhuidean Bed-chamber, he is attacked by Darkhounds. Upon his balefiring of them, they cease to exist. He goes down, to see what's up with his &quot;homies,&quot; only to find Mat whining about getting the &quot;dog-drool&quot; all over his arm. However, this event ceased to happen (via balefire). Mat STILL remembers it, however. Due to the action of Rand's balefire, Mat only actually has about a drop of the drool on his arm. Moiraine just &quot;shows up&quot; (that's so crazy, how she can just &quot;do that&quot; all of the time...), and says something to the effect, that having the &quot;drool&quot; all over his arm would have killed Mat almost instantly. Point being this:<br /><br />1. The Darkhounds attack Mat, he isn't successful enough at fending them off as he needed to be, and as a result, they drool all over his arm.<br />2. Mat most likely would die as a result of this (taking this from what Moiraine said).<br />3. The Darkhounds are &quot;called&quot; (for lack of a better word) to go attack Rand, by whatever commanding force they answer to.<br />4.Rand somehow &quot;balefires&quot; the bad ebil puppy wuppies.<br />5. The Darkhounds cease to exist, all the way back to during their confrontation with Mat.<br />6. Mat has no longer been drooled upon (with the exception of about a drop of it), and therefore does not die, as Moiraine is able to heal him of this.<br />7. Nothing in the way that Mat has done, seen, or heard, etc. has changed. The better part of his &quot;Super burly Darkhound Brawl&quot; never happend, but Mat's actions in no way changed.<br /><br />ps. if i was to balefire myself, would i cease to exist (taking into account that i wouldn't have been around to balefire myself if i didn't exist when i did balefire myself)?<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1"><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/baalzamon.gif" border="0" /> &quot;I'm the D.O.&quot; <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/darkone.gif" border="0" /> &quot;No I am&quot; <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/rand.gif" border="0" /> &quot;KILL THEM!&quot; <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/darkone.gif" border="0" /> &quot;You can't possibly win!&quot; <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/mat.gif" border="0" />*smirks* &quot;Ya wanna make a bet???&quot; <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/perrin.gif" border="0" /> *mutters* &quot;stupid axe&quot; <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/elayne.gif" border="0" /> <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/avi.gif" border="0" /> <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/min.gif" border="0" /> &quot;YOU CAN DO IT!&quot;</font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-13 11:16:01
subject: <b>Oh boy... Another explanation about fantasy...</b>
body:
Why don't you just accept that balefire is simple what it is? No explanation. You put a lot of thinking to explain it, yet you left out a lot of things your theory based upon. For example, what is thread? What is Pattern? What is a nature of the Pattern? What are the laws of the Pattern? How you can unravel it? What does unraveling Pattern mean? What is One Power? How a human can use it? Why a human can use it? And a lot of it&#8230;<br /><br />I see very pointless to apply some logic to a fantasy. Sometimes you just have to live in a fantasy and enjoy it.<br />


created: 2004-12-13 11:29:12
subject: <b>Too much to think about</b>
body:
To: Haruka<br />I had always assumed there were 4 dark hounds. 2 that went after rand and 2 for mat.<br /><br />As for balefire, it is too paradoxal to think about. Even some of the various balefire events are contradictory to each other if you look too deep. The best thing to do is just to accept it. =)


created: 2004-12-13 11:41:16
subject: <b>I am sorry...</b>
body:
but it just seems like you're stating the obvious. Yes, when Rand balefired Rhavin, the big man ceased to exist way back before he killed our dear Avi. She then popped into existence somewhere near where she &quot;died,&quot; but she did not remember anything past the moment of her death, and even her death is fuzzy.<br /><br />So Avi did not exist on the plane of the living for the hypothetical twenty minutes, and then she did. Basic time travel, but damn painful to go through for all parties involved.<br /><br />Then again, you could look at it as Avi's trip being merely a regular form of time travel. Each of us is currently traveling through time, forward in time. She just made a quick leap where the rest of us take slow steps.<br /><br />My post is highly rambly, so I'm going to stop right about now. Have a good day.<br /><br />Phelix<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">Warder to Be'lal's Girl<br />Wotmania Lottery<br /><br /><br /><br />&quot;Meh. A good relationship is like fireworks: loud, explosive, and liable to maim you if you hold on too long.&quot; ~ Sven, Questionable Content<br /><br />Bonded by Sidious. <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/flamingsword.gif" border="0" /></font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-13 12:34:47
subject: <b>well, timetravel is a given in particle physics</b>
body:
Without comment on the WOT theory, I want to state that the current theories on particle physics do not agree with you.  At the quantum level, time has no direction arrow, and particles apparently do go backwards in &quot;time&quot; at least some of the &quot;time&quot;    This expanded to a macro scale suggests time travel is possible but statistically unlikely.  (once in the lifetime of the universe at a measurable scale type of unlikely)


created: 2004-12-13 13:28:28
subject: <b>Nice thinking</b>
body:
You've obviously been thinking about this so I'm not about to challenge it. So I'll just bring up some points which concern me ...<br /><br />1. Time is paradoxical whenever you interfere in any way. In fact , it's the one constant which really screws everything up when it's altered in any way. I don't think we can expect RJ to think of these convolutions - especially because some of the world's greatest academics are still pondering the issue.<br /><br />2. I don't like your allude to three threads , one for Aviendha , Rand and Rahvin. I understand that you need to simplify to make us understand , but I think this is the intrinsic flaw in your reasoning. The Pattern is exceedingly complex and every thread probably has many millions touching it from many levels , and even in several dimensions. Therefore a burnt thread can have several unpredictable effects.<br /><br />Nice theory into the physics of time though. <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/smile.gif" border="0" /><br />Ps. It's Rahvin , not Rhavin. <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/wink.gif" border="0" /><br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">A One Power researcher<br />Defender of Lanfear<br />Grand Ninja-Nae'blis to be feared <br />Original Warder to Isa <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/smile.gif" border="0" /><br />New Warder to Nossie <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/biggrin.gif" border="0" /><br />Toy to Seriana <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/winky.gif" border="0" /><br />Mystified by a Fan <br />Bonded Phelix - I was young, it happened so fast.</font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-13 15:13:49
subject: <b>Timetravel is possible:</b>
body:
We all travel forward in time with a constant and unchnaging pace, don't we?<br /><br />Basicly, this theory is beyond my scope. I enjoyed it though. Thanx DelphianAudi!<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">The only way to convince me is by providing some evidence!</font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-14 01:11:21
subject: <b>great thinking</b>
body:
I must say congratulations on your thought scope. You really linked your arguments to put a convincing case. <br /><br />I understood your idea of &quot;unchanging of changes&quot;. That is one of the definitions of time. But where balefire is concerned, you basically said what balefire does (except for the living for twenty minutes more thing). i.e. balefire burns away the thread, therefore &quot;unchanging the changes&quot; made during that life thread. <br /><br />Good theory, adding a different idea of time and balefire, but still explaining the properties of balefire in different words.


created: 2004-12-14 02:51:21
subject: <b>2 Points</b>
body:
1. &quot;ps. if i was to balefire myself, would i cease to exist (taking into account that i wouldn't have been around to balefire myself if i didn't exist when i did balefire myself)?&quot;<br />Depends on how much balefire you used. Balefire is most easily measured in terms of the amount of time you burn back someone. Therefore, two seconds' worth of balefire is bigger than one seconds' worth, etc. If you balefired less than the time it took for the balefire to hit you, no, you would not still exist, you would be balefired. If not, I think the Pattern would unwind and then yes, you would cease to exist. So basically, don't balefire yourself.<br /><br />2. I have a great theory STILL IN WAITING TO BE POSTED on this subject. And balefire in general.


created: 2004-12-14 03:19:26
subject: <b>Not quite correct, Haruken</b>
body:
Haruken, you aren't totally correct. Remember, the stronger the balefire is woven, the further back you go to the point of it never happening even it being forgotten. Rand used just barely enough balefire to eliminate the hounds and still not tear the thread away past just a few minutes. If Rand had used a lot more balefire, Mat would have never been attacked and wouldn't have a drop of drool on him, nor would he have recollection of this, because it never happened.<br /><br />It all depends on the amount of balefire used. Rand just didn't use enough to really affect anything past a minute.


created: 2004-12-14 15:01:15
subject: <b>Cleantoe</b>
body:
It says in the books that the actions are erased, leaving only the memories. If Rand had eliminated the puppies further back in time, they would never have attacked, but Mat would still remember it, as would anyone who saw them.<br /><br />Deja vu and all...<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">Warder to Be'lal's Girl<br />Wotmania Lottery<br /><br /><br /><br />&quot;Meh. A good relationship is like fireworks: loud, explosive, and liable to maim you if you hold on too long.&quot; ~ Sven, Questionable Content<br /><br />Bonded by Sidious. <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/flamingsword.gif" border="0" /></font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-14 21:43:03
subject: <b>Well...</b>
body:
First of all, let me apologize to Haruka (sp?). I know I misspelled it twice last time.<br /><br />Anyways, I clearly remember reading in the regular books about how if you balefire something so far back, they have no recollection of what happened because the thread is removed and never was there for anyone to remember.<br /><br />Don't you remember the part where Rand invades Andor through a gateway, and as soon as his army gets through, Rahvin blasted everyone with lightning, and kill Aviendha? After Rand balefired Rahvin with a crapload of it, Aviendha was alive, and had no recollection she was ever even struck by lightning. It never happened.<br /><br />The BWB is wrong, I'm sorry. Either that, or that's a mistake in the series.


created: 2004-12-14 22:48:55
subject: <b>Not quite...</b>
body:
They don't remember dying because it caught them by surprise. It's a vague fuzzy memory because well, who wants to remember dying? They weren't facing Rahvin one on one, they were battling his minions.<br /><br />So, while they're battling the various shadowspawn, they got struck down by lightning... then later Rand balefired Rahvin and they're back, but the trolocs are too, so they have to fight the beasts around them and have a huge deja vu moment.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">Warder to Be'lal's Girl<br />Wotmania Lottery<br /><br /><br /><br />&quot;Meh. A good relationship is like fireworks: loud, explosive, and liable to maim you if you hold on too long.&quot; ~ Sven, Questionable Content<br /><br />Bonded by Sidious. <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/flamingsword.gif" border="0" /></font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-15 09:50:23
subject: <b>Ah, But I Am Right About the Memories</b>
body:
After the battle, when we are given Asmodean/Jasin Natael's PoV, he recollects some pretty wierd happenings. It goes like this: <br />&quot;He was not sure what had happened that morning, and not sure he wanted to be sure.  Too many Aiel had expressed surprise at seeing him, had claimed they had seen him dead; he did not want details.&quot;<br /><br />1. The Aiel remember him dying, even though the fact of his death never happened, due to Rand's &quot;super&quot;bale-fire. He remembers some wierd happenings, but is not quite sure what, and he doesn't &quot;want&quot; to remember. Even if he did, he most likely would have rationalized in his head that these memories were a dream, or hallucination or somesuch, and dismissed them as that.<br />2. Even if he didn't remember, the Aiel did. And if balefire did what most of you are insinuating, it would be impossible for them to even remember this event.<br />3. I'd like to thank cleantoe for spelling my name right this time, <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/wink.gif" border="0" /><br /><br />And as one last thing, this is an interesting conversation, let's KEEP IT GOING, ok?<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1"><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/baalzamon.gif" border="0" /> &quot;I'm the D.O.&quot; <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/darkone.gif" border="0" /> &quot;No I am&quot; <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/rand.gif" border="0" /> &quot;KILL THEM!&quot; <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/darkone.gif" border="0" /> &quot;You can't possibly win!&quot; <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/mat.gif" border="0" />*smirks* &quot;Ya wanna make a bet???&quot; <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/perrin.gif" border="0" /> *mutters* &quot;stupid axe&quot; <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/elayne.gif" border="0" /> <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/avi.gif" border="0" /> <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/min.gif" border="0" /> &quot;YOU CAN DO IT!&quot;</font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-15 10:52:43
subject: <b>maybe you're right</b>
body:
Now that I think about it, if Rand superbalefires someone and no one is really supposed to remember, I guess that would include him too, eh? But he always remembers clearly who he balefires.<br /><br />Meh.


created: 2004-12-15 15:34:50
subject: <b>Well...</b>
body:
Avi and Mat don't remember ding, however all the people that saw them die DO remember seeing them die. So memories do remain no matter how much balefire is used. Avi and Mat also didn't simply so up 20 minutes later. They didn't die so they would have existed for those 20 minutes.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1"><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/seanchan.gif" border="0" /> Iluminaten <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/seanchan.gif" border="0" /><br />Lord of the Iluminati</font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-15 19:05:04
subject: <b>Well...</b>
body:
I agree with Skeeve the Great, i think that we read into the world of WOT way to much, I agree that RJ proboly roughly sketched out some of the proprties of the one power, etc. I don't think he took the time to make a &quot;Grand Unifing Theory&quot; for the world of WOT. Personelly, I think Balefire is commentarty on the human condition and the nature of the soul. The fact that the most integral part of who we are, exists outside of time, that is why the things that shape us, our experiances (memories)don't change. <br />      Think about this: Someone, a long time ago super-Balefires Ishy's grandpa, so now he didn't beat Ishy's dad, who didn't beat Ishy and since Ishy doesn't have all of these issues he becomes a painter....So then Balefire could become a kind of theripy. I see the reason that memories can be erased as a statment about who we are. We then have Compulsion that does change people, I belive that refers to people changing people's personality, same with the circle of 13. The question is do those changes transend death? No because if it did then we WOuld see examlpes of it. Another thing, If hitler got Balefired back to a point that he hadn't commited all of those atrocities would that make him a better person?<br />      I think that we should look at this from a literary standpoint (it is a fictional book) insted of a book on physics. I will say, i do enjoy reading theories, it has gotten to the point that after TG and the conclusion to the books we will keep the world alive through froce of will.


created: 2004-12-15 19:09:42
subject: <b>Correction</b>
body:
Instea of saying:<br /><br /> I see the reason that memories can be erased as a statment about who we are<br /><br />I ment to say:<br /><br />...reason that memories can't be erased ...


created: 2004-12-15 22:22:03
subject: <b>Hmm....</b>
body:
This is more towards your view on time travel.  The thing is that, if, for example, somebody dear to you dies, such as Aviendha for Rand, and you wish to go back to change it so they don't, and you can do it successfully, then you enter a paradoxical world...  There are a couple opinions about what would happen, a) he went back and changed it, so there's no reason for him to jump back, which causes her to die, which causes him to need to jump back, but then the reason is gone... in a never ending loop, or b) an idea that was taken from DBZ is that, if you go back into the past, then an alternate reality is created, you have your reality where the person dies, but there is another you, in another reality, who never saw that person die because they were saved...  It's all a big cluster f*** that no matter what, the specific person who wants to change the timeline, will never receive the benefits of it...  Those are my two cents...<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">Toad D-Manz <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/crazy.gif" border="0" /><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/mat.gif" border="0" /><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/hopper.gif" border="0" /><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/flamingsword.gif" border="0" /><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/bandredhand.gif" border="0" /></font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-16 14:10:24
subject: <b>it depends</b>
body:
There are generally two types of time travel<br />going forward in time and going back in time<br />i believe that of those two going forward is less disputed and is mostly accepted<br />the other type is also devieded into two main ways<br />one is at a certain point to ciese to exist (by entering a time capsule) and appear at a past point and atter the change you intend (like saving Aviendha) and then going back to the future and carry on as if nothing happend<br />which causes a paradox if you saved her life and she hadn't died why did you go back in time to save her in the first place.<br />the paradox can be resolved by the alternate universe expanation that Avadakadevra used.<br />the other way of time travel is to go back in time by &quot;unchanging all changes&quot; which will mean that time will simply reapet itself because you also unchanged the memory of the time traveller. what you need to do is unchange all changes exept the time traveler and then he can save aviendha and continue living from the past onwards.<br />which causes a problem if an 80 year old man go back in 40 years in time to save his 38 year old sweatheart using the unchange all changes exept the time traveler method then he will perhaps save her but he will be 80 years old when he is supposed to be 40 and his sweatheart will probably want nothing to do with him.<br />another problem with that sort of time traveling is sollar movment. if you go back in time without proper calculation you can end up in space because the earth has litteraly fell from out of your feat remember you are completly unchanged.<br /><br />just my 2 agurot on time travel<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">I slept and dreamed that life was beauty.  <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/nynaeve.gif" border="0" /><br />I awoke -- and found that life was duty.   <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/lan.gif" border="0" /><br /> <br />Ours not to reason why <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/loial.gif" border="0" /><br />Ours but to do and die.<img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/uno.gif" border="0" /><br /><br />may you find a she that will bring you many cubs  <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/hopper.gif" border="0" /><br /><br /></font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-18 16:48:09
subject: <b>Oww</b>
body:
*Weeps* Your theory made my meagre brain hurt. I'm telling mommy!!<br /><br />*Serious Face, though still contorted with pain* Good theory, well-worked. Do you and your friends talk about this sort of thing often? Must frequent the 'Lobotomy' Ward in hospital...<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1"><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/lan.gif" border="0" /> Warder to Whoever Will Have Me <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/lan.gif" border="0" /><br /><br />More Than Twice as Cool As: <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/narg.gif" border="0" /><br /><br /><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/flaminggrin.gif" border="0" /> Hotter Than the Sun <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/flaminggrin.gif" border="0" /><br /><br /><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/angel.gif" border="0" /> Entirely In Love With Myself <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/angel.gif" border="0" /></font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-31 23:18:55
subject: <b>Another possible solution</b>
body:
The DIRECT actions of Rahvin are cancelled.  Aviendha and Mat are saved, like the others killed by Rahvin's lightning.  The actions Rand took because of those actions are not, because Rand wasn't balefired.  His thread isn't burned back.<br /><br />Look at it this way: Rahvin's thread blocked Aviendha's from getting any further - he killed her.  When his was burned back, Aviendha's thread was no longer blocked, so it extended through the period of time for which it had been blocked.<br /><br />Rand's thread, since he was neither balefired nor affected by Rahvin in any direct way (except in Tel'aran'rhiod, where the rules are different according to Robert Jordan), remains unchanged.


created: 2005-02-18 18:42:43
subject: <b>good</b>
body:
explains a bit more about balefire. a couple thoughts<br /><br />If a balefire weave was made big enough to hit EVERYTHING, including the person to shoot it, the pattern would undo itself for an amount of time. so, theoretically, time travel is possible in randland. (you just need a sa'angreal like the choedan kal times 20...) Traveling time with this method would have no benifet, however, as no one would know it had happened and the exact same thing would happen. <br /><br />Come to think of it, that would mean the same person would balfire everything AGAIN... trapping the wheel and the pattern in a loop, to continue the same 20 or so minutes for eternity... woah... that hurts my head...<br /><br /><br /><br />another thought, what if two people fired balefire at eachother at the EXACT same instant? they wouldnt exist, so they wouldnt have fired the balefire, so they would exist, sothey would have fired the balefire, so they wouldnt exist, and... well, you get the point. THAT is something to think about.<br /><br /><br /><br />Good theory!<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">-Sabin<br /><br /></font><p></p>


created: 2005-04-15 20:15:06
subject: <b>I'm getting dizzy here...</b>
body:
Nice paradox, sabin... Really nice <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/tongue.gif" border="0" /><br /><br /><br /><font size="-1"><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/perplexed.gif" border="0" /> <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/smackhead.gif" border="0" /> <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/rant.gif" border="0" /> <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/approve.gif" border="0" /><br /><br /><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/aessedai.gif" border="0" /> <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/viking.gif" border="0" /> LLT <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/viking.gif" border="0" /> <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/aessedai.gif" border="0" /></font><p></p>


created: 2005-07-04 22:53:17
subject: <b>Academic has more than one meaning</b>
body:
Whether I agree with your initial premise or not really depends, among other things, on whether or not I believe that &quot;time&quot; and/or &quot;change&quot; are real, and, with one notable exception regarding the latter (and whether THAT is true change could be debated as well) I don't, so I guess I don't.<br /><br />Your natural comparison of balefire with time travel put me in mind of a theory I have regarding time travel that corresponds in some ways to the way balefire works in WoT.  Basically, it goes like this: to avoid the paradox nature abhors, alterations in the time line have a &quot;relativistic&quot; effect in that they affect everyone EXCEPT the person responsible for them.  If we imagine time as occuring in distinct ways restricted to individuals, a view suggested by the premise of WoT itself, then we all go along together with our threads all progressing at the same rate UNTIL ONE OF US CHANGES SOMETHING IN THE PAST.  At that point, it's as if the thread in question has looped around and altered the rest at some point THEY consider in their past, but for the person performing the alteration it is THEIR future relative to the moment in question.  To put it in terms of the infamous &quot;grandfather clause&quot; of time travel, you can't go back in time, kill your grandfather, and thus cause yourself (and the death of your grandfather) not to occur because, for you, the person responsible, the death of your grandfather happens AFTER your birth, not before.  Now, when and if you return to your own time, one (at least) of your parents will not have been born, and anyone you knew, if they still exist, will not remember you or you non-existent parent, but you will.  <br /><br />Put yet another way, you can't change your own past because it would violate the laws of conservation of mass and conservation of energy if you suddenly removed the mass/energy of your body from the present time and added it to a previous one that was already at its quota.  Now what this does if you travel to a point after your birth I don't know, but, assuming it's possible, I imagine it would play out as your consciousness being transferred to your body at that time, which would produce some really bizarre effects, as your consciousness AT THE TIME was not deleted but radically changed.<br /><br />&quot;Logical inconsistency is the Mr. Bubble I bathe in each and every evening, except for yesterday evening, when I rollerbladed over to the Masonic temple to play pinochle with Pope John Paul I. I really had no choice in the matter.&quot;  &quot;Ed&quot; King Missile, from the album Happy Hour.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">Warder to the unrivalled Rival.  Let the competition (such as it is) fear my wrath!<br /><br /><i>For full disclosure, subtract ~2000 from my CMB views.</i><br /><br />Love can't be coerced.<br /><br />Seek in Joel what goodness God gave me; seek the ill no more, for it and I are dead.</font><p></p>


created: 2005-07-29 13:21:01
subject: <b>A fallacy...</b>
body:
In the opening statement you state that time is the perception of change.  While I understand the logic you used to arrive at this point, it is certainly flawed.  How about sleeping?  We notice no change while we are unconcious, so does time stop while we sleep? Relatively?  Or, say, we are sitting on top of a mountain, we notice no change, hence time is not moving.  Time is simply there to stop everything from happening at once.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">I think computer viruses should count as life. I think it says something about human nature that the only form of life we have created so far is purely destructive. We've created life in our own image.<br />                                  -Stephen Hawking</font><p><a href="http://coolbean.mywebhut.com" target="_blank">Coolbean > Developer Resources & Modern Technologies Customer Area</a></p><p></p>


created: 2007-01-07 23:41:17
subject: <b>subjective idealism</b>
body:
This theory of the nature of time is very reminiscent of subjective realism, in which objects exist only by virtue of having been perceived.  Or, if I close my eyes and can no longer see you, you cease to exist.  As mentioned above, if this were the case for time, it would stand still when I fell asleep.  Now it is true I have no way of knowing whether you are real when I no longer perceive you, though I choose to believe otherwise.<br />Example: the gholam in the stasis box has perceived no change in time, but outside the box over 3000 years have passed.


created: 2007-11-11 14:58:30
subject: <b>How about this</b>
body:
There is a Pattern.  In it, a girl named Avienda dies.  At a moment prior to this another Pattern (B) is created because every action and every lack of action causes another possibility which is manifest in a new universe/Pattern.  A boy called Rand gets mad and kills the killer of Avi (a bad man named Rahvin).  But he does it in such a way that the people of the world percieve him to be, for lack of better wording, &quot;buring back time&quot;.  In reality he just kills Rahvin and copies all the people (threads) alive at that time.  At this same &quot;moment&quot; he drags his own thread (a copy) and all the others to Pattern B at the precise moment Avi died.  No time elapsed in Pattern B, because it has always been that way- all the people are there and Rahvin is gone.  The people will percieve this to be retrochronatic taxidesiation (backwards ime travel).<br /><br />So lets rev iew this from a different stand point.  There is a Pattern with Avi in it.  Avi dies, splitting the Pattern (with the help of Rand).  Everyone falls into Pattern B and see Rhavin as gone.  Before Avi died, Pattern B was made so she is still in it.  Everyone remembers Avi dying, because they saw it happen in the other universe/Pattern, but she didn't.  They all ive happily until TG (except for Asmo).<br /><br />From Pattern A's view it goes like this.  Avi dies.  Rand get angry.  Rahvin dies.  That world is doomed because Avienda was necessary for TG.  The DO wins.<br /><br />They are self-consistant except with the timing of Rahvin's death and a few other points.  I believe, however, that overall these are just minor details that were worked out but we just don't understand how.


created: 2008-07-08 13:53:57
subject: <b>interesting</b>
body:
firstly i would like to apologise to the people who have probably already made this point just cba to read a backlog of 31 comments.<br /><br />next:<br /><br />I disagree with your hypothesis that time travel has occured as you are maintaining the fact that Aviendha has time traveled. Both of them have lived for the same amount of time. Rand however existed for 20 minutes when aviendha did not. I feel that by balefiring Rahvin, Rand creates a new future that starts at the point that rahvin ceases to exist. If i use a branch as a metaphor it would seem that Rand cut off the end of the branch but a new branch then grew to replace it although slightly different. However this means that Rand has not existed for 20 minutes in that future as he was in the original future and they have both been alive for the same amount of time. This means that by casting the balefire he somehow moved himself from the original future into the alternate future (something i imagine would be similar to traveling and VERY closely linked to portal stones and links between worlds i would imagine although that could be a very long seperate theory and i am toooo tired at the moment). <br /><br />ANYWAY, I think that this solves your old time travel paradox that comes hand in hand with balefire, that by doing something that affects the past you change the conditions so you would no longer have done whatever it was that affected the past and therefore do not so you do not affect the past so what you did remains undone therefore recreating the original conditions needed for the &quot;time travel&quot; and so on. The new future hypothesis shows how you create a new future from the time that you create the change and are then moved there at an appropriate time. This means that whatever caused the change in the past remains done off as when the branch is cut off it does not cese to exist it is just no longer attached to the pattern. <br /><br />had another point that was awesome but forgot it so that will have to do xD


created: 2009-01-30 21:14:46
subject: <b>yes ,yes ,yes</b>
body:
Well thought out.And maybe it could be as simle as traveling is moveing right to left or left to rightin the patern and not forward to back or back to forward.Just a thought.


created: 2009-04-14 21:45:12
subject: <b>I apoligize for this....</b>
body:
I would comment on this but im out of time...<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">&quot;There is one rule, above all others, for a man. Whatever comes, face it on your feet.&quot; -Al'Lan Mandragoran.<br /><br />&quot;And what would you have done differently?&quot;  -Thom Merrilin<br /><br />Muscle and mustache; the perfect combination.</font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-16 08:51:33
subject: <b>You could be right</b>
body:
But, IMO, Weiramon is still the best suspect. His seemingly incompetence belies the shrewdness in his eyes. Also, the interrupted conversation during Rand`s plans against the Seanchan adds further evidence for his being a DF.<br /><br />Tedosian, the wealthiest man in Tear, is much too flagrant in his opposition to the Dragon Reborn to fit the profile of a Dark Friend, IMO.<br /><br />He is accustomed to being the most powerful Noble in Tear, and will resist until his last breath, befitting RJ`s portrayal of much of the nobility in WoT.<br /><br />Maybe they are both DFs.<br /><br />(Tedosian is just too stupid for his own good.)<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">jofraz <br /><br />Egwene fanatic<br />&quot;Elaida will be removed one way or another&quot;.<br />The seeds are being planted and some have sprouted.<br />The end is near</font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-16 09:17:18
subject: <b>Answer to jofraz</b>
body:
<b> But, IMO, Weiramon is still the best suspect. His seemingly incompetence belies the shrewdness in his eyes. Also, the interrupted conversation during Rand`s plans against the Seanchan adds further evidence for his being a DF. </b><br /><br />Though he acts sometimes foolish, Weiramon is still quite loyal and does what Rand orders.<br /><br />On the other hand, Tedosian works against Rand from the beginning and would even kill him as Moiraine states.<br /><br />The dispute between Weiramon and Gedwyn (a known DF) in TPoD, ch.24, is often quoted as an argument pro Weiramon:<br />&quot;'I don't care who you are,' he was saying to the black-coated man in a low, hard voice, spittle flying, 'I won't take more risk without a command direct from the lips of...'<br /><br />Then Bertome is noticed and Weiramon stops speaking.<br /><br />The Weiramon faction seems to believe that Weiramon had said &quot;Moridin&quot;.<br /><br />But is it not at least as likely he wanted to say &quot;Lord Dragon&quot; and just stopped, so that Bertome doesn't know of this dispute?<br /><br />After all, why should Moridin give Gedwyn special orders for Weiramon? <br />Seems quite unlikely to me.<br /><br />If Gedwyn really gave an order from Moridin to Weiramon, is it not very unbelieveable and almost madness that Weiramon challanges Gedwyn to bring Moridin to him, so that he gets the order fom Moridin himself? <br /><br />After all Weiramon should know the power of the Forsaken from the DF Social and simply act. <br /><br />Therefore I doubt that Weiramon wanted to say Moridin, but rather Lord Dragon.<br /><br />It also seems likely to me that Gedwyn simply made up the order by Rand since he wanted to create more chaos.<br /><br /><b> Tedosian, the wealthiest man in Tear, is much too flagrant in his opposition to the Dragon Reborn to fit the profile of a Dark Friend, IMO.<br /><br />He is accustomed to being the most powerful Noble in Tear, and will resist until his last breath, befitting RJ`s portrayal of much of the nobility in WoT. </b><br /><br />Right, Tedosian is probably as powerful in Tear as Barthanes (another DF) was in Cairhien.<br />He is certainly more powerful than Weiramon.<br /><br />Considering this one should note, though, that when the DF High Lord receives his orders at the Social &quot;the Tairen High Lord, nodded and bowed to someone none else saw.&quot;<br /><br />This implies that the High Lord sees no real problems to fulfill his orders, and this could further imply that he is very powerful.<br /><br />Plus, as stated in the theory we also see how unscrupulous Tedosian is to kill another High Lord. <br />This unscrupulousness fits quite good with a high-ranking DF IMO.<br /><br /><b> Maybe they are both DFs. </b><br /><br />Possible.<br /><br /><b> (Tedosian is just too stupid for his own good.) </b><br /><br />Hmm, Weiramon seems much more stupid... <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/wink.gif" border="0" /><br />


created: 2004-12-16 09:36:43
subject: <b>Probably not</b>
body:
It seems that RJ portrays his evil characters as devious people who work on the inside, not in open rebellion like Tedosian. So when Etzel says, &quot;Tedosian is also a High Lord, but contrary to Weiramon [Tedosian] always worked against Rand&quot; I would take that as a point for Weiramon. RJ has a (bad) habit of portraying most every group in WoT stereotypically (men, women, darkfriends, etc.) so I would have to vote for Weiramon being the darkfriend at the social.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">&quot;Ehhxxxhilennnt&quot;</font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-16 09:58:28
subject: <b>Don't think that is right, Joseph44</b>
body:
<b> It seems that RJ portrays his evil characters as devious people who work on the inside, not in open rebellion like Tedosian. So when Etzel says, &quot;Tedosian is also a High Lord, but contrary to Weiramon [Tedosian] always worked against Rand&quot; I would take that as a point for Weiramon. RJ has a (bad) habit of portraying most every group in WoT stereotypically (men, women, darkfriends, etc.) so I would have to vote for Weiramon being the darkfriend at the social. </b><br /><br />Carridin, Suroth, Alviarin, Shiaine, Hanlon (who joined the rebels around Toram Riatin) or Old Cully are all DF who more or less openly work against Rand or his friends (not to speak of the Forsaken..).<br /><br />Of course there a DF spies who are calm and don't act openly, but Weiramon is hardly a spy.<br /><br />I also think it makes less sense for Ishy/Moridin to give one of his servants the order to support Rand, but sometimes act a bit foolish, than to oppose Rand, maybe kill him, rebel against him and finally attack the Stone of Tear, thus creating a bit more chaos in Randland.


created: 2004-12-16 12:46:48
subject: <b>psst... it's &quot;unscrupulous&quot;</b>
body:
Etzel might be on to something.  The oft-mentioned Weiramon quote seems to not jive very well.  Who is Weiramon referring to?  It is likely that Gedwyn would have identified himself as a DF to Weiramon?  That's only possible if whoever is ordering Gedwyn at this point (Taim? Demandred? Moridin?) had told him that Weiramon is a fellow DF and had some sort of need for him in a plot.  But that doesn't really make sense.  If a Forsaken needed Weiramon, they would have contacted him in his dreams.  I don't really think Gedwyn is stupid enough to reveal his DF-ness on his own.<br /><br />And who is Weiramon referring to?  Is Moridin moving this openly so soon?  Has he made contacts to anyone at this point, or is he still working through proxies like Cyndane and Moggy?  The only DF we know that has had direct contact with Moridin is Shiane.<br /><br />Tedosian is just as likely to be a DF as Weiramon.  He was just one of many High Lords plotting against Rand in TSR.  At this point, no doubt he was completely rudderless where orders were concerned.  Be'lal had just died, and Ishy's orders from the Social wouldn't have covered Rand in Tear (Ishy wasn't expected Rand to get Callandor so soon, that's why he freaked out and engaged in his &quot;bloody melee&quot; ).  It's sort of comparable to Lord Elegar in Caemlyn after Rahvin was killed... a toady DF that has no orders.<br /><br />As for constantly working against Rand, not everyone has to be a &quot;serpent in the bosom.&quot;  He was left alone in Tear, with no other powerful High Lord dissidents, and was ordered to stir up chaos so Rand's chokehold on the country was lessened.  If you think about it, Tear has been solidly in Rand's hands since TSR.  Why wouldn't the Forsaken have something to do with the rebellions?  We know Moggy contacted Hanlon in Cairhien.<br /><br />Remember, the seige of the Stone in WH and COT is a very interesting development.  I'm sure Tedosian seized upon an opportunity of Darlin, in the Stone, claiming to be Rand's Steward (immediately after being a rebel in Cairhien).  A little chicanery on Tedosian's part, and the people of Tear would have risen up against Darlin.  It was only because Astoril, the hero of the Aiel War, sided with Darlin that Tedosian can do nothing.<br /><br />This theory has many things going for it, despite the lack of proof.  Good job, Etzel!


created: 2004-12-16 13:02:22
subject: <b>Thanks, AgingComputer</b>
body:
(also for the correction! I wanted to write &quot;unscrupulous&quot; in the theory of course...) <br /><br />As said, I have the same doubts about Weiramon's quote and believe it's rather a weak argument for Weiramon being a DF if you think a bit about it (and except for this quote, there isn't much pro Weiramon).<br /><br />Furthermore, I want to take up one of DomA&#8217;s ideas, who assumes that some of the DF at the Social were used to help the Forsaken to become established in the different lands.<br /><br />I suppose the few nobles which were first mentioned as High Lords of Tear and dare to speak at the audience with Rand in TSR, ch.8, were the highest ranking (plus most likely Darlin who already rebelled). <br />They are:<br />Carleon (killed by Tedosian), Meilan (killed by Colavaere), Sunamon (though he is described as a &#8220;diffident&#8221; man) and Tedosian.<br /><br />It&#8217;s certainly easier for Tedosian, surely a man with much power, wealth and influence, to establish Be&#8217;lal as High Lord Samon in Tear, than for an apparently not such high-standing Weiramon (he&#8217;s seems mainly hyped due to Rand&#8217;s rule), who is not even mentioned as a Tairen High Lord before the end of TFoH, where he has to lead some soldiers from Tear to Cairhien to support Rand.<br /><br />Tedosian&#8217;s involvement would better explain Be&#8217;lal&#8217;s quick rise, since he must have become basically the leader of the High Lords of Tear at the latest in the end of TGH or the beginning of TDR, otherwise the Tairen Captain Huan Mallia could hardly already know Samon and his politics so well in TDR, ch.32.<br /><br />


created: 2004-12-16 13:45:04
subject: <b>What about Torean?</b>
body:
First, I'm not at all certain that it would take the highest of the high nobility to ease the path to power of a Forsaken in any given country.  Some decent Compulsion coupled with a few DFs for pointers on culture / protocol ought to do the job.<br /><br />Second, I thought Torean was the richest High Lord in Tear.  IIRC, he is still on Rand's side, unlike Tedosian.  I don't see why a DF High Lord, e.g. Tedosian, would be ordered to join the Haddon Mirkies.  The deadliest DFs we have seen have been ones closest to those in power -- e.g. Ingtar, Taim, Halima, Dashiva, Alviarin, Carridin, etc.  The DO is all about inserting his minions into the structures of power.  The Mirkies probably would have rebelled with or without a super-high Tairen DF to spur them on.  This argues against Tedosian.<br /><br />Third, Torean is always overlooked without actually being overlooked.  RJ is continually telling us that one COULD underestimate him with his lumpy, farmer Mr. Potato-head thing going on.  But RJ doesn't actually do it.  IMHO Torean is just enough of a docile lurker to be the bad guy.<br /><br />Fourth, this isn't really an argument, but Estean, Torean's son, drinks brandy like a fish -- a fish named Jaichim Carridin.<br /><br />Just wanted to hear everyone's thoughts on Torean.<br /><br /><br />TFK


created: 2004-12-17 00:14:37
subject: <b>How do you make text bold?</b>
body:
Carridin, Suroth, Alviarin, Shiaine, Hanlon (who joined the rebels around Toram Riatin) or Old Cully are all DF who more or less openly work against Rand or his friends (not to speak of the Forsaken..).<br /><br />Of course there a DF spies who are calm and don't act openly, but Weiramon is hardly a spy.<br /><br />I also think it makes less sense for Ishy/Moridin to give one of his servants the order to support Rand, but sometimes act a bit foolish, than to oppose Rand, maybe kill him, rebel against him and finally attack the Stone of Tear, thus creating a bit more chaos in Randland. <br /><br /><br />(Preface, I am just now rereading WoT after several years absence. I am at LoC so I don&#8217;t really remember Shiaine, (Daved?) Hanlon, Toram Riatin, or Old Cully (the beggar?). And I don&#8217;t have reference&#8217;s handy.)<br /><br />I think you misunderstood me. What I meant by &#8220;on the inside&#8221; is that they are not known as DF&#8217;s. Carridin, Suroth, and Alviarin are not known to Rand or other important &#8220;Good guys&#8221; as being against them. Only the Forsaken or those that have been found out (Liandrin, Fain, Tedosian, etc.) are known as bad guys. I don&#8217;t think that Rand has ever met Carridin, Suroth, or Alviarin but if he did he would obviously know that Suroth is against him (seanchan), Carridin (he can channel, is the &#8220;false dragon&#8221;, etc.), Alviarin is Aes Sedai involved in the plot to kidnap him and take him to the Tower&#8230; Bad guys can hurt Rand and his cause more by being on the &#8220;inside&#8221; (Him not knowing that they are bad. Remember Melindhra almost killing Mat?) than by being openly against him. (That&#8217;s probably just my opinion) <br /><br />Your last paragraph made some sense though. Although its up for debate in who could cause more chaos.<br /><br />I kinda rambled. Sorry, its late.<br /><br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">&quot;Ehhxxxhilennnt&quot;</font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-17 00:56:44
subject: <b>to joseph44</b>
body:
You bold by placing &lt; b&gt; before your text and &lt; /b&gt; after, except without the spaces (I don't want my text being bolded).<br /><br />Anyways, Etzel is saying that Tedosian is a much more likely suspect than Weiramon for being the High Lord of Tear DF.  There is little evidence for either one, but the one peice of evidence for Weiramon, his interaction with Gedwyn, is a weak, even negligable, argument.  Overall, Tedosian has done FAR more than Weiramon to hurt Rand's cause.  As I said earlier, he might have succeeded inciting outright insurrection in Tear, if it hadn't been for Astoril.<br /><br />You have to think, what has Weiramon done?  Little to hurt Rand, really nothing when you think about it.  He's not very good as a spy, either, because Rand doesn't trust him or keep him around -- he's rotting in Cairhien at the beginning of COT.<br /><br />Tedosian, on the other hand...<br /><br />&lt;/b&gt;Carridin (he can channel, is the &#8220;false dragon&#8221;, etc.),&lt;/b&gt;<br /><br />I'm not sure what this is.  Perhaps you have Carridin mixed up with Taim?  Carridin is the Whitecloak Inquisitor who screwed up all of Niall's plans from TGH to LOC.


created: 2004-12-17 03:41:12
subject: <b>Whitecloaks</b>
body:
&quot;He was left alone in Tear, with no other powerful High Lord dissidents, and was ordered to stir up chaos so Rand's chokehold on the country was lessened. If you think about it, Tear has been solidly in Rand's hands since TSR. Why wouldn't the Forsaken have something to do with the rebellions? We know Moggy contacted Hanlon in Cairhien.&quot;<br /><br />If my memory serves me, is'nt the rebellion against Rand in Tear by Tedosian(sp?)instigated by Niall. I seem to remember a Niall POV from LoC where he's chatting with Balwer and mentions that it's whitecloak agents that have conviced the High lords and Ladies to rebell?<br />Besides High Lady Estanda(sp?)who rebelled with him seems fairly powerful


created: 2004-12-17 05:15:22
subject: <b>Two replies</b>
body:
To The Fisher King,<br /><br /><b> First, I'm not at all certain that it would take the highest of the high nobility to ease the path to power of a Forsaken in any given country. Some decent Compulsion coupled with a few DFs for pointers on culture / protocol ought to do the job. </b><br /><br />I think it makes sense that the Forsaken who became rulers got some support e.g. from a powerful noble in the country to rise quickly. <br /><br />It seems especially useful in Tear since a new High Lord is probably elected by the other High Lords.<br />Tedosian could certainly rather influence other High Lords to raise Samon than Weiramon.<br /><br /><b> Second, I thought Torean was the richest High Lord in Tear. IIRC, he is still on Rand's side, unlike Tedosian. I don't see why a DF High Lord, e.g. Tedosian, would be ordered to join the Haddon Mirkies. The deadliest DFs we have seen have been ones closest to those in power -- e.g. Ingtar, Taim, Halima, Dashiva, Alviarin, Carridin, etc. The DO is all about inserting his minions into the structures of power. The Mirkies probably would have rebelled with or without a super-high Tairen DF to spur them on. This argues against Tedosian.<br /></b><br /><br />It's possible that Torean is the richest High Lord. But as you said, he is on Rand's side. I don't see why if he is the DF High Lord (Taim is another case, and we learn quite quickly that he has his own agenda).<br /><br />However, from TFoH, ch.41, we know that Torean ranks behind Meilan (in this chapter several nobles swear oaths of fealty to Rand in order of their rank)<br /><br />As I pointed out above, I believe Meilan and Tedosian rank equal.<br /><br />I think Ishy gave Tedosian orders to support Be'lal in his rise and politics, e.g. against Illian.<br />Maybe he should also keep an eye on Be'lal.<br />Later Tedosian probably got orders to look for Rand, maybe capture or kill him (like Carridin got).<br /><br />Of course in the end of TDR Ishy &amp; Be'lal died.<br />Therefore Tedosian probably did what he thought would help the Shadow, namely oppose and maybe kill Rand. <br /><br />As Urizen pointed out, Balwer tells in LoC, ch.9, that WC agents convinced Tedosian to rebel.<br />I believe, though, that Tedosian just saw a good opportunity to join Darlin's rebellion and therefore agreed.<br /><br />Later we learn that he is one of the leaders of the nobles who besiege the Stone of Tear.<br />I think that this could again be the fulfillment of an order by Moridin.  <br /><br /><br />To Urizen,<br /><br /><b> If my memory serves me, is'nt the rebellion against Rand in Tear by Tedosian(sp?)instigated by Niall. I seem to remember a Niall POV from LoC where he's chatting with Balwer and mentions that it's whitecloak agents that have conviced the High lords and Ladies to rebell?<br />Besides High Lady Estanda(sp?)who rebelled with him seems fairly powerful </b><br /><br />See above my thoughts on the WC and the rebellion.<br /><br />Lady Estanda is certainly powerful, but since she is a woman, I ruled her out as the possible DF Tairen High Lord... <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/wink.gif" border="0" /><br /><br /><br />


created: 2004-12-17 13:49:27
subject: <b>what about Alteima?</b>
body:
forget the exact passage, but you just quoted it... &quot;I was also asleep, in Tear, with my wife&quot;.... didn't Alteima end up in Caemlyn, because she had poisoned her husband?  So if that was Tedosian.... and he survived.... would they be sleeping together?


created: 2004-12-17 14:28:14
subject: <b>Big Easy brings up the point I want to highlight</b>
body:
You use evidence Tedosian's wife. As I recall they were not a happy couple and would not likely be found in bed together. It should be looked into.<br /><br />A few points.<br /><br />It may be a stretch to assume that the Tearean in TAR is the same as the high lord from the DF social. IIRC, there were around 100 people at the social - I find it highly unlikely that only 1 Tearean was in attendence.<br /><br />I don't see any more (or less for that matter) evidence supporting Tedosian over Weiramon. The quote everyone uses as evidence for Weiramon is still more suspicious (IMO) than anything Tedosian has done. Anyway I would think that DF close to Rand would be more valuable to the shadow than one on the fringes.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1"><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/cool.gif" border="0" /><br /><br />Need a book to read - check out my blog for ideas.</font><p><a href="http://nethspace.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">Neth Space</a></p><p></p>


created: 2004-12-17 14:30:02
subject: <b>forgot to add...</b>
body:
Another great theory. Keep 'em coming.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1"><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/cool.gif" border="0" /><br /><br />Need a book to read - check out my blog for ideas.</font><p><a href="http://nethspace.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">Neth Space</a></p><p></p>


created: 2004-12-17 15:07:10
subject: <b>Agree</b>
body:
But I never had anything against it in the first place.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">The only way to convince me is by providing some evidence!</font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-17 22:01:04
subject: <b>I like it</b>
body:
But you assume the Tairan who met Ishamael was the same as in the Darkfrien Social? Why? Do we know who the others were?<br /><br />As for Alteima, what happened to her anyway? I don't remember anything about her post-Rahvin.<br /><br /><b>Carridin, Suroth, Alviarin, Shiaine, Hanlon (who joined the rebels around Toram Riatin) or Old Cully are all DF who more or less openly work against Rand or his friends (not to speak of the Forsaken..).</b><br /><br />Well Carridin's a Whitecloak Inquisitor. Od course he opposes Rand. That's like saying that a Cairhienin must be a Darkfriend if he doesn't like Aiel. Suroth is working on the inside, on the inside of the Seanchan power. And if Hanlon was showing any sign of opposing Rand, I'm pretty sure Elayne would beat him around. Alviarin actually sent a letter to say that she was one of the very few in the Tower to bow down to Rand. I forgot about Cully. Shiaine may be the only one up there that actually is an obvious Darkfriend.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1"><i>War must be, while we defend our lives against a destroyer who would devour all; but I do not love the bright sword for its sharpness, nor the arrow for its swiftness, nor the warrior for his glory. I love only that which they defend</i><br />~Faramir</font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-18 04:43:00
subject: <b>New answers</b>
body:
To _Big_Easy_,<br /><br /><b> forget the exact passage, but you just quoted it... &quot;I was also asleep, in Tear, with my wife&quot;.... didn't Alteima end up in Caemlyn, because she had poisoned her husband? So if that was Tedosian.... and he survived.... would they be sleeping together? </b><br /><br />Alteima tried to poison Tedosian in TSR after he killed Carleon (because Thom forged a letter so that Tedosian realized that Carleon and Alteima have an affair), while Perrin saw the Tairen in the Wolfdream already in TDR.<br /><br /><br />To kcf,<br /><br /><b> You use evidence Tedosian's wife. As I recall they were not a happy couple and would not likely be found in bed together. It should be looked into. </b><br /><br />As pointed out above, Tedosian learned of the affair in TSR due to Thom's plot.<br />Therefore they still slept together at the time of TDR.<br /><br /><b> It may be a stretch to assume that the Tearean in TAR is the same as the high lord from the DF social. IIRC, there were around 100 people at the social - I find it highly unlikely that only 1 Tearean was in attendence. </b><br /><br />I don't say that High Lord is the only Tairen DF.<br />But he is the only DF from Tear we, the readers, know.<br /><br />It makes sense that Ishy would contact this High Lord in TDR to give orders regarding Be'lal, who was in Tear, or Rand, who traveled to Tear.<br /><br />Furthermore it also makes sense that RJ would give us another clue to the identity of the High Lord by telling that he is married. <br /><br />Otherwise it had no meaning at all, besides that there is a married Joe Random DF in Tear (who never did anything we know of in the story so far).<br /><br /><b> I don't see any more (or less for that matter) evidence supporting Tedosian over Weiramon. The quote everyone uses as evidence for Weiramon is still more suspicious (IMO) than anything Tedosian has done. Anyway I would think that DF close to Rand would be more valuable to the shadow than one on the fringes. </b><br /><br />I don't see why Weiramon is valuable for the Shadow.<br /><br />Besides that he is in Cairhien at the moment, nowhere near Rand, I doubt that Rand trusts him so much.<br /><br />On the other hand, Tedosian's siege is of use for the Shadow without doubt. <br /><br />All in all, I believe Tedosian acts much more suspicious than Weiramon and thus is more likely the DF.<br /><br /><b> Another great theory. Keep 'em coming. </b><br /><br />Thanks, another theory is already in the making... <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/wink.gif" border="0" /><br /><br /><br />To Fanatic-Templar,<br /><br /><b> But you assume the Tairan who met Ishamael was the same as in the Darkfrien Social? Why? Do we know who the others were? </b><br /><br />See above.<br /><br />Besides, yes, I think RJ gave us the clues at the Social, so that one can figure out through the series who the persons are who Bors saw.<br /><br /><b> As for Alteima, what happened to her anyway? I don't remember anything about her post-Rahvin. </b><br /><br />I think that was the last time Alteima was mentioned.<br />Probably she is still in Caemlyn.<br /><br /><b> Well Carridin's a Whitecloak Inquisitor. Od course he opposes Rand. That's like saying that a Cairhienin must be a Darkfriend if he doesn't like Aiel. Suroth is working on the inside, on the inside of the Seanchan power. And if Hanlon was showing any sign of opposing Rand, I'm pretty sure Elayne would beat him around. Alviarin actually sent a letter to say that she was one of the very few in the Tower to bow down to Rand. I forgot about Cully. Shiaine may be the only one up there that actually is an obvious Darkfriend. </b><br /><br />The point is, I believe it makes more sense that the High Lord got orders at the Social to kill or oppose Rand and to make a bit chaos, then to support him in any way.<br /><br />Therefore Tedosian acts rather like one of Ishy's DF, than Weiramon IMO.


created: 2004-12-18 10:53:30
subject: <b>W</b>
body:
Weiramon isn't innocent either. After all reason why Seanchan cavalry almost killed Rand (PoD, chapter 32, Fog of War) was that W took forces under his command elsewhere and so let that cavalry charge pass. Or there is a possibility that he then followed orders to kill Rand.


created: 2004-12-18 14:41:49
subject: <b>What I meant was</b>
body:
In the dream, when Ishy confronts the Tairen and the Tar Valoner ( I think there was another one as well ) why do you think they are people of importance? Do you know who the Tar Valoner, and the other were?<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1"><i>War must be, while we defend our lives against a destroyer who would devour all; but I do not love the bright sword for its sharpness, nor the arrow for its swiftness, nor the warrior for his glory. I love only that which they defend</i><br />~Faramir</font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-18 19:23:02
subject: <b>to Etzel</b>
body:
don't know why I ever doubted you in the first place =)  I paid no attention or thought to WHEN we see the Tairen High Lord, but now that I think about it, I know you're right....


created: 2004-12-19 10:06:08
subject: <b>Two replies</b>
body:
To PTH, <br /><br /><b> Weiramon isn't innocent either. After all reason why Seanchan cavalry almost killed Rand (PoD, chapter 32, Fog of War) was that W took forces under his command elsewhere and so let that cavalry charge pass. Or there is a possibility that he then followed orders to kill Rand. </b><br /><br />This is e.g. a scene where I would say Weiramon is rather an incompetent idiot than a DF.<br /><br />Besides, at this time Moridin didn't want Rand's death, so it's not likely that he gave one of his DF an order to kill Rand.<br /><br /><br />To Fanatic-Templar,<br /><br /><b> In the dream, when Ishy confronts the Tairen and the Tar Valoner ( I think there was another one as well ) why do you think they are people of importance? Do you know who the Tar Valoner, and the other were? </b><br /><br />The married Tairen, a rich merchant from Tar Valon and an Illianer &quot;in red and gold&quot;, apparently a nobleman, were specifically mentioned among the DF in the dream.<br /><br />The men already know &quot;Ba'alzamon&quot;  from somewhere. <br /><br />Ishy says that he gave them tasks and wants to make sure that they will be fulfilled (so these orders have to be quite important).<br /><br />It's also made clear in this scene that Ishy didn't give the orders via TAR before since the men don't know where they are, and Ishy explains it then.<br /><br />All this strongly implies that these men were at the DF Social.<br /><br />The man from Tar Valon was apparently the leader of the DF who tried to kill Mat in Tar Valon and is therefore mentioned.<br /><br />I believe that RJ mentioned the Tairen and the Illianer because they were connected to Be'lal and Sammael. <br />Plus, he gave us new clues to figure out the identity of two of the DF Bors saw at the Social.<br /><br />As pointed out, the married Tairen is the DF High Lord Tedosian in my opinion.<br /><br />If you read my post on the WoT MB &quot;The cloaked &amp; hooded figure at the Darkfriend Social&quot;, you know that I further believe that the Illianer is the hooded figure at the DF Social who talks to the wealthy woman from Illian.<br />It makes sense that they would talk together.<br /><br />In my view, the man is most likely a member of the Council of the Nine in Illian and, like the Tairen High Lord, helped Sammael to become the Head of the Nine. <br /><br />The Illian woman is probably a member of the Assemblage then, the second advisory body for the King of Illian, whose members are Illian merchants or ship owners.   <br /><br />


created: 2004-12-20 10:26:38
subject: <b>Another Chosen</b>
body:
<b>Besides, at this time Moridin didn't want Rand's death, so it's not likely that he gave one of his DF an order to kill Rand.</b><br />But a darkpal has to obey all orders from his superior. So if another foreskin gave him order to kill Rand only choice that Weiramon had was to say &quot;yes Master&quot; and try to obey that order. Or Moridin isn't only person who can give orders to darkfriends. After all &quot;someone&quot; hired Slayer to kill R though DO wanted R alive and free. Naturally assuming that happened b4 Moridin told all Chosen that they could kill Rand.


created: 2004-12-20 12:10:12
subject: <b>To PTH</b>
body:
<b> But a darkpal has to obey all orders from his superior. So if another foreskin gave him order to kill Rand only choice that Weiramon had was to say &quot;yes Master&quot; and try to obey that order. Or Moridin isn't only person who can give orders to darkfriends. After all &quot;someone&quot; hired Slayer to kill R though DO wanted R alive and free. Naturally assuming that happened b4 Moridin told all Chosen that they could kill Rand. </b><br /><br />I believe Slayer was ordered by Osan'gar. <br />But that happened after the Forsaken Tea Party where Moridin allowed to kill Rand if necessary.<br /><br />Also Taim and Demandred ordered the Asha'man to kill Rand after the campaign against the Seanchan.<br /><br />Therefore I don't see who could have ordered Weiramon to kill Rand by leaving his guard. <br />Besides that it was not a shellproof plan at all if it was indeed meant to kill Rand.<br />


created: 2004-12-21 04:14:35
subject: <b>Tedosian and Torean</b>
body:
You convinced me that tedosian is very suspicious, but I have one minor disagreement: that about the comparison between Tedosian and Torean.<br /><br />tSR, Ch.8 - Tedosian is in delegation of Tairen High Lords leaded by Meilan. Earlier in the day Rand met another delegation leaded by Torean. So Meilan and Torean are faction heads while Tedosian is only a faction member. Meilan and Torean are also the two most powerfull figures among Tairen High Lords in Tear for that time, while Tedosian has less high rank than Meilan. Torean has also less high rank than Meilan, as stated in tFoH, but Torean is at least high in rank enough for to lead a faction, while Tedosian isn't.<br /><br />Rand sents to Cairhien the High Lords from all factions whom he supposes to be among the most dangerous for him, and who were involved in the most radical known schemings against him. Torean is in the number of those men, Tedosian isn't. Also in the mentioned above 3 chapter of tSR Torean is so much opposing and pissing up Rand, that Rand threw Torean out (and later Rand regreted about losing his temper so much). Tedosian hasn't done so much.<br /><br />Torean has a good reason to be yet on Rand's side: Torean has attracted Rand's permanent attention in too large scale. Torean has caused different obstacles to Rand too much times, more than most of other High Lords, and every time Rand arranges some High Lords to be under his short leash, Torean is the first in the list. Rand pays much attention to Torean and Torean knows it too well. Tedosian had the opportunity to be left without Rand's attention for lot of time, and also it's known that for the rebellion in Haddon Mirk are responsible emissarias of Elaida and of Paedron Niall (who both definitely used to give to these Tairen Lords wrong information). So there are lot of other good reasons for Tedosian to be in the number of the rebels against Rand. Interesting about Tedosian's rank among other Tairen High Lords is, that the public leader of the Haddon Mirk rebels is not Tedosian, but Darlin Sisnera. I.e. Tedosian is not amongst those Tairen Lords with the hightest rank.<br /><br />And Estean is Torean's son and legal heir, not Torean's bastard, so Torean must be married. We don't know if Torean's wife is still alive, but we have no a single indication that she is dead.<br /><br />So Torean would also match the arguments for Tedosian being the DF from the Ishamael's social very well.


created: 2004-12-21 06:04:44
subject: <b>To a dragonburned fool</b>
body:
<b> tSR, Ch.8 - Tedosian is in delegation of Tairen High Lords leaded by Meilan. Earlier in the day Rand met another delegation leaded by Torean. So Meilan and Torean are faction heads while Tedosian is only a faction member. Meilan and Torean are also the two most powerfull figures among Tairen High Lords in Tear for that time, while Tedosian has less high rank than Meilan. Torean has also less high rank than Meilan, as stated in tFoH, but Torean is at least high in rank enough for to lead a faction, while Tedosian isn't. </b><br /><br />I didn't get the impression that Meilan was the leader of a faction, but rather that all High Lords who speak in this chapter, at least Meilan, Tedosian and Carleon, are equal (and thus Tedosian ranks above Torean in my view).<br /><br />Besides, Moiraine tells that Tedosian actually leads a faction to kill Rand.<br /><br />One should also note that in TSR, ch.4, Thom plots against those High Lords he believes are especially dangerous for Rand, e.g. Tedosian (not Meilan or Torean).   <br /><br /><b> Rand sents to Cairhien the High Lords from all factions whom he supposes to be among the most dangerous for him, and who were involved in the most radical known schemings against him. Torean is in the number of those men, Tedosian isn't. Also in the mentioned above 3 chapter of tSR Torean is so much opposing and pissing up Rand, that Rand threw Torean out (and later Rand regreted about losing his temper so much). Tedosian hasn't done so much. </b><br /><br />Tedosian hasn't so openly opposed Rand in TSR (of course note that he is poisened by his wife and very ill later, which also explains why Rand couldn't send him away).<br /><br />But the people who know how to play the Game of Houses, namely Moiraine and Thom, still express very early in TSR how dangerous Tedosian is.<br /><br /><b> Torean has a good reason to be yet on Rand's side: Torean has attracted Rand's permanent attention in too large scale. Torean has caused different obstacles to Rand too much times, more than most of other High Lords, and every time Rand arranges some High Lords to be under his short leash, Torean is the first in the list. Rand pays much attention to Torean and Torean knows it too well. Tedosian had the opportunity to be left without Rand's attention for lot of time, and also it's known that for the rebellion in Haddon Mirk are responsible emissarias of Elaida and of Paedron Niall (who both definitely used to give to these Tairen Lords wrong information). So there are lot of other good reasons for Tedosian to be in the number of the rebels against Rand. Interesting about Tedosian's rank among other Tairen High Lords is, that the public leader of the Haddon Mirk rebels is not Tedosian, but Darlin Sisnera. I.e. Tedosian is not amongst those Tairen Lords with the hightest rank. </b><br /><br />As said, Tedosian was ill for some time.<br /><br />Darlin was the High Lord who started the rebellion. <br />Thus it's clear that he was the leader, even after Tedosian joined him. <br /><br />And then after Darlin leaves the rebels and goes to Cairhien, Tedosian is known as the leader of the rebellion.<br /><br /><b> And Estean is Torean's son and legal heir, not Torean's bastard, so Torean must be married. We don't know if Torean's wife is still alive, but we have no a single indication that she is dead. </b><br /><br />Well, at least in Tedosian's case it's confirmed that he is still married, while there are doubts about Torean.<br /><br /><b> So Torean would also match the arguments for Tedosian being the DF from the Ishamael's social very well. </b><br /><br />Well, I believe Tedosian matches better, especially since he opposes Rand, while Torean even fights for him in PoD.<br />Plus, it makes some sense that the Shadow is also behind the siege of Tear.


created: 2004-12-22 11:36:31
subject: <b>I'm late....</b>
body:
but only because I really didn't have anything to add.<br /><br />It makes sense to me. Certainly Weiramon has been shoved in our faces as an obvious choice, and that usually gives me reason to doubt. This is a better explanation, IMO.<br /><br />Good job, Etzel! Nice to see you posting theories again!<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">Where once was Shadow<br /> Now reigns <b>Light</b><br /> Darkness fades<br /> <b>In</b>to <b>the Night</b><br /><br />Wotmania's Theory Post has the most!<br />Submit one of your own today <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/jordan.gif" border="0" /><br /><br />Wotmania's richest Wotmaniac!</font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-23 16:14:41
subject: <b>Etzel.....Maybe.</b>
body:
Thanks for the read.<br /><br />Merry Christmas!<br /><br />Columbo.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">'Omne ignotum pro magnifico'</font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-24 04:11:39
subject: <b>Nicely done.</b>
body:
This comment's not so much on the theory itself - I liked it, and everything seems to have already been pretty well addressed in the comments.<br /><br />However, it's good to see another Etzel theory after a long time- well done, well evidenced, and then you come and defend it like an attack dog.  <br /><br />I enjoyed it thoroughly.  Keep up the good work.


created: 2005-03-29 20:51:51
subject: <b>Weiramon is the DF</b>
body:
I think he made sure to get deep in Rands good graces and to basically completely mess up Rands plans and cause chaos.  The others were just jealous I think and going against him out of spite.  I think Gedwyn spoke with Weiramon about killing rand when they fought the seanchan.  Where he refused since he didn't want to make that bold of a move without word from the DO himself.  Gedwyn could have very easily have met Weiramon at a DF social or just been told about him from another DF.


created: 2004-12-23 08:52:50
subject: <b>I agree, but..</b>
body:
I vote no because this theory is already wildly discussed on the boards, plus there are a few theorys already that state more or less the same stuff. There was no clear reason for yet another post. And the iron and music stuff isn't solid, is it?<br /><br />P.S.: you state the fireworks are items that don't create fire per definition. True, but here is my question: HOW ARE THEY GOING TO LIGHT THE FIREWORKS? WITH THEIR FINGERS? -sorry for shouting, but there are few who have tought of that, so I recon it was time to bring it up...


created: 2004-12-23 09:48:05
subject: <b>Another Possible &quot;Instrument&quot;</b>
body:
Many singers consider their voices to be instruments. Could Tom cheat simply by singing or whistling? Good theory.


created: 2004-12-23 10:00:48
subject: <b>Response to Lews Albar</b>
body:
<b> I vote no because this theory is already wildly discussed on the boards, plus there are a few theorys already that state more or less the same stuff. There was no clear reason for yet another post. And the iron and music stuff isn't solid, is it? </b><br /><br />The new idea (at least I never read it anywhere) is that I tried to determine more concrete how Moiraine&#8217;s rescue will happen and how exactly Thom can beat the Finn by using the clues from the game Snakes &amp; Foxes and the special items.<br /><br />Besides, many people believe in the theory that courage, fire, music and iron represent certain characters who will all help to rescue Moiraine.<br /><br />I disagree with this notion since Egwene&#8217;s Dream implies that Thom will play the crucial role in the rescue. <br />This would certainly be quite difficult for him if e.g. ta&#8217;veren like Mat or Perrin accompany him. <br /><br />Plus, that Thom plays the major role in freeing Moiraine, will be better for the later romance between both&#8230; <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/wink.gif" border="0" />)<br /><br />Therefore I also figure that RJ will tell the rescue from Thom&#8217;s PoV.<br /><br /><b> P.S.: you state the fireworks are items that don't create fire per definition. True, but here is my question: HOW ARE THEY GOING TO LIGHT THE FIREWORKS? WITH THEIR FINGERS? -sorry for shouting, but there are few who have tought of that, so I recon it was time to bring it up... </b><br /><br />As I said in the theory, the fireworks could be lit with Aludra's firesticks (that are matches).


created: 2004-12-23 10:04:08
subject: <b>good theory</b>
body:
i think this was a really well thought out theory. i'm impressed with the thought that you put in it... i also agree too.


created: 2004-12-23 11:14:14
subject: <b>Couple of things missing</b>
body:
A couple of changes are necessary I think... There are a lot of fantasies written that show this property of iron (biinding). This property is dua to the magnetism of iron, and many mythical beings seem to be affected by magnetic fields. It has small filings inside it, which give it this magnetism and the polarity of each side of the pirece of iron. When it is transformed into Cuendillar, it changes. A lot. It becomes indestructible, AND changes colour. I take it to be true also that cuendillar isn't magnetic. So it may not be what Thom will use. However, this thing about capturing one of the Top Hat Finns. Great idea! Everyone already has an idea that our heroes will go to Finnland with fire, iron, music and courage, but no one has ever said what will go on inside (as far as I know). Also, nicely done with the fireworks/matches thing. However, if they take a channeler inside, it wouldn't be necessary... they could just spin out a fireball. The singing thing I also think is more feasible than taking a music box into the Tower. I just don't know for sure how to trick them with the iron part. Maybe Cuendillar is the right solution after all, even though I don't think it is.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">http://www.orkut.com/Profile.aspx?uid=4841668765074332965<br /><br />&quot;It's like God gave you the tools to build a house, and the blueprint is in you. Just remember to use rubber gloves.&quot;</font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-23 11:23:52
subject: <b>Well Done!</b>
body:
Very well thought out. Don't worry about the fact that a few say your ideas have been 'already stated', I think that this took a lot of time, effort and consideration, and I congratulate you on that. Check my post &quot;Mesaana Is...&quot; and let me know what you think... Oh yeah, I agree with almost everything you've said. I have a feeling Jordan will surprise us with the &quot;iron&quot; part..


created: 2004-12-23 11:32:32
subject: <b>A couple of possibilities....</b>
body:
One dream of Perrin's that hasn't happened yet is of Mat, &quot;bound and naked, with his spear thrust across his back behind his elbows, and a silver medallion, a foxhead, hung on his chest.&quot; This probably indicates Mat will eventually be held by the Seanchan, who Rand is about to meet with in the next book. <br /><br />Depending on how this all falls out, of course, this could put Rand and Mat together. (Rand will certainly be surprised to find that Mat isn't with Egwene and the BotRH, as Nynaeve told him in WH.) If Perrin makes an appearance too, which I doubt, it could solve a lot of knowledge problems involving the ToG.<br /><br />At any rate, the point I was getting at was the male a'dam is most likely going to be at this encounter, and it fits the idea of iron in the form of cuendillar that you mentioned. Not necessarily a chain, but I don't believe it has to be to bind one of the Aelfinn. (Iron is to the Finn as Kryptonite is to Superman, IMO.) Once it is taken off of Rand, as most suspect will happen, someone has to take charge of it again, so this would be a good use for the item that has been dreaded throughout much of the story.<br /><br />One thing that gets forgotten is that Bayle Domon knows exactly where the ToG is too, and he is still with this group. Thom might already have the knowledge about the Finn's from all his stories, so a trip to see Birgitte might not be necessary. <br /><br />I like to remind people that there was a book of humorous tales that Egwene was reading at Mother Guenna's house in Tear, that was written by Aleria Elfinn. (A + Elfinn = Aelfinn). RJ didn't throw that in there for no reason, IMO. <br /><br />Anyway, great theory, Etzel, and some new ideas as well! Thumbs up from me!<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">Where once was Shadow<br /> Now reigns <b>Light</b><br /> Darkness fades<br /> <b>In</b>to <b>the Night</b><br /><br />Wotmania's Theory Post has the most!<br />Submit one of your own today <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/jordan.gif" border="0" /><br /><br />Wotmania's richest Wotmaniac!</font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-23 11:57:19
subject: <b>I voted no</b>
body:
Aside my opinion that Moraine should not be rescued, let's talk about the theory.<br /><br />Although it's very nice theory (nice job Etzel), I think the rules of the game suggest that only one person will go to the Finns. This person and Moiraine will try to flee (two humans and 20 snake and foxes). I don't think Mat and Olver would go on the rescue mission. They may provide some cover outside or something.


created: 2004-12-23 12:05:29
subject: <b>Yes, good theory</b>
body:
There has been some hints (as you have pointed out) in the books and we can conjecture about what will happen, but I don't believe that we can know for certain what will happen. <br /><br />Good theorizing though. It sounds plausible.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">&quot;Ehhxxxhilennnt&quot;</font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-23 12:31:20
subject: <b>Great ideas...</b>
body:
I like it...a lot.  Great job... but I'm with Skeeve.  I think it will only be Tom who goes in... no reason to take Oliver--too young, Mat will be busy with the Seanchan...and Perrin though near is not near enough...  I belive it will only be Tom who goes in...and two humans flee.  I like the idea of the match sticks and maybe fireworks or at the very least gunpowder...  Tom's voice might suffice... or a simple stick could be made relatively quickly into an instrument (flute-like or recorder)...or a weapon.<br /><br />The catch is iron...I like your idea...but I just don't see it coming up in the near future...granted the Pattern may provide...it's just hard to say without a more concrete clue.... and once again..you may be correct...it may very well be cuellendar.<br /><br />Great job...and keep pluggin' away...<br /><br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">We really swing in the <font color="green">Green</font>...<br />-JAGW <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/wheel.gif" border="0" /> --Just Another swingin'...errr...sword and never in the <font color="green">Lime</font>light.<br /><br />It ain't easy being <font color="green">Green</font>... <i>--Kermit the Frog</i></font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-23 12:38:17
subject: <b>Very good theory Etzel</b>
body:
And pay no mind to those who tell you it's a rehash or builds on other stuff.  That's what theories are about, looking at the same old elements in a new light - and nobody forces anyone else to read! <br /><br />One thing I like is that it centers on Thom - and I too believe he's the one who will go there - definitely not Mat as most theories suggest.  Mat, as the trickster, only has to teach how to cheat - he doesn't have to be there himself andh as so much to do elsewhere.  I don't see Olver getting involved, though.  Olver is the child figure to Mat's father figure.  IMHO, he has to stay close to Mat and be in danger.<br /><br />Olver knows the Game, like Mat knows the cheats. That's how he is linked to it. Giving insight on the game. <br /><br />I think the part about the matches and the fireworks is dead on.  It will be used to create a diversion of some kind.<br /><br />I like the part of capturing a Finn too.  Sounds very good strategy.<br /><br />I like the part about the music-box less.  I think it likely either needs a weave of the OP or the standing-flows to work - and the Finns might recognize an object from the AoL.  It needs to be something they don't see coming - and I find that Thom's singing them a song remains the most likely possibility.<br /><br />Iron remains a mystery to me. Cuendillar is a possibility, and I think Mat's power-wrought spear is another.  The Finns themselves might have provided Mat with the tool to free Moiraine.  <br /><br />I think the scene will play out like a Game of S&amp;F - with them in pursuit etc.   <br /><br />Finally, I guess if one other character must accompany Thom there, it would be Tuon - the one Mat had to marry, the one who believes in prophecies and legends, the one Olver likes to play with, the one who wanted the Ashanda'rei and might get Mat to give it to her, the one who wondered about the bargain, the one who knows very well how to fight physically (she would have beaten Mat if it wasn't for Noal) etc.  There would be a certain complementarity that Moiraine and Mat have been &quot;cheated&quot; and their counterparts Thom and Tuon will cheat them back.  Tuon might even find a way to get even for the price Mat had to pay.<br /><br />Hmmm.. she could be the one to activate the music-box and to fight and kidnap/bind your Finn - actually.<br /><br />However, I tend to believe Thom will go there alone - though I must say Olver always wanting a companion to play S&amp;F alongside with him might be a clue Thom won't be alone.<br /><br />I really like the motif that Thom the Gleeman has to fight with characters out of a Gleeman's tales, however. It fits so well, especially since other characters from tales - such as Birgitte, Hero of the Horn, or even the heir of yet another Hero and part of the legendary armies of AH returning, and Jain Farstrider too, might help him entering one of his own stories for real.<br /><br />That's the motif of the inherent powers and lessons to be found fairy tales, the fact that like History and Myth, they too are more than mere entertainment.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /> <br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><font size="-1"><img src="images/personalsmilies/30778.gif" />Wheel of Time Reference Library : Articles, maps, charts and misc.<img src="images/personalsmilies/30778.gif" /><br /><br /></font><p><a href="http://13depository.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">The Thirteenth Depository - a Wheel of Time Blog</a></p><p></p>


created: 2004-12-23 13:44:05
subject: <b>iron chain</b>
body:
Would an iron necklace be a violation??? I am thinking yes....but if it is small and has the ability to weaken them...then it may go unnoticed.<br /><br />Also...another question... they go in the ToG....do they come out at the ToG or the other doorway...and would this be likely in terms of the story line... So is Tom and Moiraine in Tear...advance things or not...or does Tom and Moiraine at the ToG advance things?  I assume the later if we believe that Rand will be captured and Moiraine and Caddy....need to be involved in some rescue attempt.<br /><br />Just thinking out loud...<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">We really swing in the <font color="green">Green</font>...<br />-JAGW <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/wheel.gif" border="0" /> --Just Another swingin'...errr...sword and never in the <font color="green">Lime</font>light.<br /><br />It ain't easy being <font color="green">Green</font>... <i>--Kermit the Frog</i></font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-23 14:08:08
subject: <b>The theory turned out well.</b>
body:
And a good thing it has been discussed on the boards beforehand, because it is the better for it.<br /><br />I think that only one person goes into the Finns' land myself and two people flee, with the Finns in pursuit, just as in the game of Foxes and Snakes. And I agree that just as in the game, they can and do capture Finns. In the game one must capture many Finns to avoid being captured.<br /><br />It will be interesting to see of cuendillar retains enough of iron's magnetism to affect the Finns. If Tuon, Mat and co return to Ebou Dar, as I posted a few weeks ago, then the male adam (of cuendillar-like material) would be the nearest piece.<br /><br />Another thing is that Thom can perform sleight of hand, as well as singing, so who is to say what he can smuggle into the Finns' world and suddenly whip out and use?<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1"><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/elayne.gif" border="0" /> Linda Sedai <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/elayne.gif" border="0" /> <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/aessedai.gif" border="0" />Proud member of the Embroiderer's Guild of the White Tower<br /><br /><b><font color="red">FAQ admin</font></b> </font>'cos the FAQ is where it's at.<br /><br /><b>Currently working on:</b> my 70th FAQ<p><a href="http://13depository.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">The thirteenth depository : A Wheel of Time blog</a></p><p></p>


created: 2004-12-23 16:03:55
subject: <b>How to flare up the firesticks</b>
body:
&quot;P.S.: you state the fireworks are items that don't create fire per definition. True, but here is my question: HOW ARE THEY GOING TO LIGHT THE FIREWORKS? WITH THEIR FINGERS? -sorry for shouting, but there are few who have tought of that, so I recon it was time to bring it up...&quot; <br /><br /><br />as stated in FOH, aludras firesticks will flare up at the slightest rough spot. Even each other. Nynaeve considers this while trying to figure out how to get rid of the new box that aludra gave her. so this argument of how they would light them is solved...<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1"><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/rand.gif" border="0" /> <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/mat.gif" border="0" /> <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/perrin.gif" border="0" /><br />I don't fail. I succeed in finding what doesn't work. <br /><br /><font color="00ff33">Official Sponsor of the Melindhra Fan Club</font></font><p><a href="http://www.illwillpress.com" target="_blank">Feel the Squirley Wrath!!!!</a></p><p></p>


created: 2004-12-23 16:25:40
subject: <b>To Etzel</b>
body:
OK, I've finished my project for school, which was the indirect cause of my use of caps-lock use. <br /><br />I agree with you that the fire/music/iron stuff aren't people's characteristics. This is not very Robert Jordan-like, I think. The trouble is that firesticks may work, but &quot;You have no iron? No instruments of music&quot; is very straight-forward, so unless the Fellowship (lol) should use the Aes Sedai truth, which I think the finns can see trough, can't work. Also, in my oppinion, firesticks are a sort of torch/candle. <br /><br />Iron is an other thing. They litterally ask: &quot;you have no iron&quot;. They can't fool this one, because it implies a yes/no answer. And Cuendillar is out of range: Egwene's camp is at Tar Valon and no-one who might know Travelling who's with Mat don't seem to have the need to go there. Mat's staff might do the trick, maybe?<br /><br />Music? Same thing, a yes/no answer. Cannons-stuff can't be used-being Iron. I do like the music box stuff, but again this stuff is out of range with no reason to go to a location where there is such a thing.


created: 2004-12-23 17:49:09
subject: <b>Cheating</b>
body:
Whoever the character or characters may be (probably Thom and another), it seems that the cheating part applies more to the foxe Finns than the snake Finns. I draw this assumption based on the main character's dealings with those found when entering the red door-frame in Tear. The snakes, found in Tear, asked for no price for the information they gave, and the characters (Rand, Perrin, Mat, and Moiraine) appeared to have suffered no ill effects from their respective meetings. Mat, on the other hand, is nearly killed by the foxes at the conclusion of his wishes and thus &quot;beating&quot; the foxes becomes both a matter of getting what you want as well as living to enjoy it. Thus I propose that beetin the Finns (and thereby cheating) could emply not bringing materials with which one could produce music, or fire, or what ever else is banned, but wishing for said materials from the Finns themselves. This then gets around the innitial question posed by the Finns as to whether you have brought fire or musical intruments or iron. Also it forms an anology between the deal one strikes with the foxes Finns and the Snakes and Foxes games. As long as you try to get what you want and leave, the foxes will trick you and do something relativly nasty and thus ultimately win. The same is true in the game when one tries to make the human pieces flee, they are eventually tripped up and caught. Likewise if you bring no banned items with you, but wish for them later, you fulfill the letter of the &quot;agreement&quot; between Randlanders and the Finn but no the spirit. This is true with turning on the foxes and snakes within the game, only in a less clear fashion. The idea, simply stated, is that one is using the &quot;moves&quot; of the snakes and foxes against them to create a situation where you truely win, not just one where you gotten what you want but then die. <br />Thus just as the snakes and foxes of the game move in a certain fashion, and if using that against  them can be beaten, so to can the real Finns, as they seem to be compelled, in some fashion to answer 3 questions or grant 3 wishes. Thus one should be able to wish for the items to beat them and thereby win.


created: 2004-12-23 20:13:59
subject: <b>Nice way to turn the tables on the Finns!</b>
body:
I like this Etzel, particularly the core of it wherein the tables are turned on the Finns, and they are the ones chased around the board, rather than the humans.  Capture one and you may well have them all over a barrel, so to speak.  And I very much like and agree with the idea of Thom going in alone, and he and Moiraine being the two human pieces &#8220;playing the game&#8221;.  Thom won&#8217;t be doing it alone in the sense that he will need help from his friends in the way of information and aid in getting to the ToG in the first place, and that&#8217;s actually a nice little sub-parallel with Rand, who in the end will have to go it alone, but will continue to need information and aid from his friends to get where he ultimately needs to be to meet his fate and rescue that of the world&#8217;s.  (And an aside, one of Rand&#8217;s final playing partners in that ultimate game may well be that &#8220;woman dead and gone&#8221;.)<br /><br />LordofnightxI above proposes an intriguing idea for how Thom might obtain the fire, music, and iron needed for winning the game.  But the problem I see with it is that the foxes are not likely to grant you your &#8220;needs&#8221; in the way you expect them to.  While Mat may have gone to them without a clue for how to deal with them, even if he had, it seems the foxes would still have granted him his &#8220;needs&#8221; only as they chose to interpret them.  And the impression I get is that they look to do it in as cruelly an ironic way as they can.  You can almost hear their malicious laughter after they&#8217;ve hung Mat out to dry, so to speak, in the Tree of Life of all things!<br /><br />I think another possibility is that Thom will go in with the items of fire, music, and iron he needs, but when he is asked whether he has these items, he&#8217;ll get around it in an ironic twist of his own:  A classic Aes Sedai answer.  He would enter then against the agreement made, but with the consent of the Finns, thus causing the Finns themselves to break the rules and render the agreement null and void!<br /><br />It&#8217;s fairly simple.  The snakes asked Mat, &#8220;You have brought no lamps, no torches, as the agreement was, and is, and ever will be.  You have no iron?  No instruments of music?&#8221;&#8230;.  &#8221;Iron.  Instruments of music.  You have none?&#8221;  The foxes asked Mat, &#8220;Do you abide by the treaties and agreements?  Do you carry iron, or instruments of music, or devices for making light?&#8221;  Seems to me in either case all Thom has to do is say &#8220;No&#8221;, and he&#8217;s being truthful.  In the first case, if he did not have the items, he would say &#8220;Yes, I have no lamps, torches, etc.&#8221;  In the second case, with a &#8220;No&#8221;, he&#8217;s answering the first question, &#8220;Do you abide by the treaties and agreements?&#8221;, and to the next, &#8220;No, I carry iron, instruments of music,&#8230;&#8221;<br /><br />It would seem that the Finns expect the agreement to always be met, and the asking is only a formality.  A &#8220;No&#8221; to their questions would be what they expect to hear.  It might just work.  Moiraine would be proud.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">Everybody's Auntie MJJ-like it or not <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/tongue.gif" border="0" /><br />Dylanfanatic: My Left-Handed Duckling of Darkness <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/approve.gif" border="0" /><br /><br />&quot;I know something from books&quot;<br />&quot;Books? But how can you know it from books?&quot;<br />&quot;Oh you're right; I know nothing nothing nothing!&quot;</font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-24 04:26:14
subject: <b>Well done once again.</b>
body:
Etzel does it again!  Great, and every point is solid.  <br /><br />Also, even without the firesticks, flint and steel would provide a light.  Actually, they could provide a spark too, technically.  That's it though.


created: 2004-12-24 06:47:34
subject: <b>My reply</b>
body:
Thanks for all the kind words! <br />I&#8217;m especially glad that the theory already provoked so many comments and an interesting discussion. <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/smile.gif" border="0" /><br /><br />About the idea expressed by some that the music will be Thom singing or whistling:<br /><br />Well, it&#8217;s possible. I don&#8217;t like it so much since I believe the rescue will be quite an action scene. <br />Therefore I don&#8217;t think it&#8217;s possible for Thom to sing in the hecticness, or would seem too comical. <br /><br />Also the iron item could be something else, though I think cuendillar would fit quite good.<br /><br /><br />A few responses in particular:<br /><br />To Light in the Night,<br /> <br /><b> One dream of Perrin's that hasn't happened yet is of Mat, &quot;bound and naked, with his spear thrust across his back behind his elbows, and a silver medallion, a foxhead, hung on his chest.&quot; This probably indicates Mat will eventually be held by the Seanchan, who Rand is about to meet with in the next book. <br /><br />Depending on how this all falls out, of course, this could put Rand and Mat together. (Rand will certainly be surprised to find that Mat isn't with Egwene and the BotRH, as Nynaeve told him in WH.) If Perrin makes an appearance too, which I doubt, it could solve a lot of knowledge problems involving the ToG. </b><br /><br />That&#8217;s right. <br />I agree with Fyatuk&#8217;s theory &#8220;The Cupbearer General&#8221; the where he expresses the same idea.<br /><br />I believe Mat will be caught by the DWG and brought back to Ebou Dar, where he eventually will meet Rand (and Rand meet Tuon).<br /><br />I also believe, though, that Perrin will come to Ebou Dar as well. <br />This could indeed solve some knowledge problems.<br /><br /><b> At any rate, the point I was getting at was the male a'dam is most likely going to be at this encounter, and it fits the idea of iron in the form of cuendillar that you mentioned. Not necessarily a chain, but I don't believe it has to be to bind one of the Aelfinn. (Iron is to the Finn as Kryptonite is to Superman, IMO.) Once it is taken off of Rand, as most suspect will happen, someone has to take charge of it again, so this would be a good use for the item that has been dreaded throughout much of the story. </b><br /><br />I like this idea very much, that the sad bracelets will not only do harm to Rand but also benefit him, if they are used in Moiraine&#8217;s rescue.<br /><br /><b> One thing that gets forgotten is that Bayle Domon knows exactly where the ToG is too, and he is still with this group. Thom might already have the knowledge about the Finn's from all his stories, so a trip to see Birgitte might not be necessary.  </b><br /><br />Yeah, right. <br />Actually also Mat should know it IIRC.  <br />And since Thom comes from Andor, or at least lived there for many years, it&#8217;s quite likley that he knows the location of the Tower as well.<br /><br /><b> I like to remind people that there was a book of humorous tales that Egwene was reading at Mother Guenna's house in Tear, that was written by Aleria Elfinn. (A + Elfinn = Aelfinn). RJ didn't throw that in there for no reason, IMO. </b><br /><br />That&#8217;s a nice catch. Not sure what to make of it yet, but it is fishy.<br /><br /><br />To Skeeve The Great,<br /><br /><b> Aside my opinion that Moraine should not be rescued, let's talk about the theory.<br /><br />Although it's very nice theory (nice job Etzel), I think the rules of the game suggest that only one person will go to the Finns. This person and Moiraine will try to flee (two humans and 20 snake and foxes). I don't think Mat and Olver would go on the rescue mission. They may provide some cover outside or something. </b><br /><br />I think that probably more than one person is required since the different items have to be used to confuse and bind the Finn at almost the same time.<br />Olver seems likely since he is such interested in the game.<br /><br /><br />To DomA,<br /><br /><b> I like the part about the music-box less. I think it likely either needs a weave of the OP or the standing-flows to work - and the Finns might recognize an object from the AoL. It needs to be something they don't see coming - and I find that Thom's singing them a song remains the most likely possibility. </b><br /><br />Since the music box seems to be a common device in the AoL (like stereos in our time), I rather think they are ter&#8217;angreal which you can use without the OP.<br />I don&#8217;t think the Finn would know them, though, because no one ever brought one into Finnland, there was no reason.<br /><br /><b> Iron remains a mystery to me. Cuendillar is a possibility, and I think Mat's power-wrought spear is another. The Finns themselves might have provided Mat with the tool to free Moiraine. </b><br /><br />The ashandarei  is a possibility, though I don&#8217;t see why Mat should give him to Thom.<br /><br />Plus, if it&#8217;s made of iron and iron is really such dangerous for Finn, it seems unlikely that they could give it to Mat.<br /><br />I like LitN&#8217;s idea about the male a&#8217;dam.<br /><br /><b> I think the scene will play out like a Game of S&amp;F - with them in pursuit etc. <br /><br />Finally, I guess if one other character must accompany Thom there, it would be Tuon - the one Mat had to marry, the one who believes in prophecies and legends, the one Olver likes to play with, the one who wanted the Ashanda'rei and might get Mat to give it to her, the one who wondered about the bargain, the one who knows very well how to fight physically (she would have beaten Mat if it wasn't for Noal) etc. There would be a certain complementarity that Moiraine and Mat have been &quot;cheated&quot; and their counterparts Thom and Tuon will cheat them back. Tuon might even find a way to get even for the price Mat had to pay.<br /><br />Hmmm.. she could be the one to activate the music-box and to fight and kidnap/bind your Finn - actually.<br /><br />However, I tend to believe Thom will go there alone - though I must say Olver always wanting a companion to play S&amp;F alongside with him might be a clue Thom won't be alone.<br /><br />I really like the motif that Thom the Gleeman has to fight with characters out of a Gleeman's tales, however. It fits so well, especially since other characters from tales - such as Birgitte, Hero of the Horn, or even the heir of yet another Hero and part of the legendary armies of AH returning, and Jain Farstrider too, might help him entering one of his own stories for real.<br /><br />That's the motif of the inherent powers and lessons to be found fairy tales, the fact that like History and Myth, they too are more than mere entertainment. </b><br /><br />Tuon is an interesting possibility, but I think Tuon has to spend some time with Mat now and later with Rand and probably Egwene. <br />Therefore I don&#8217;t believe she will be involved in the rescue.<br /><br />Another idea is I got now is, though, that Noal might become involved.<br />It would be nice if the Old Gleeman and the Old Hero rescue the maiden, so to speak.<br /><br />Plus, one viewing of Min about Thom was &#8220;a man-- not him-- juggling fire&#8221;.<br /><br />It was always said that this is probably Thom&#8217;s nephew  Owyn. <br />But since Min&#8217;s viewings are about the future, maybe this man is actually Noal and he will use the fireworks in Finnland.<br /><br />Or since in Egwene&#8217;s Dream Thom puts his hand in fire and this implied danger, a man who juggles with danger could be a symbol for a hero. <br />The most known hero is of course Jain Farstrider, which could also explain Min&#8217;s viewing if he becomes important for Thom in the rescue.<br /><br /><br />So, marry Christmas to everyone! <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/smile.gif" border="0" /><br />


created: 2004-12-24 06:50:03
subject: <b>Ehh...</b>
body:
I meant &quot;Merry&quot; Christmas... <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/wink.gif" border="0" />


created: 2004-12-24 10:20:05
subject: <b>Some quotes, some thoughts...</b>
body:
I actually read the theory yesterday, when not a single comment had been posted, but found myself unable to find anything senisble to say. Very well done, even though i don't agree 100%<br /><br />Some quotes, from SR, Ch 15 Into the doorway (Mat's first visit)<br />&quot;You have brought no lamps, no torches, as the agreement was, and is, and ever will be. You have no iron? No instruments of music?&#8221;<br /><br />&quot; &#8220;Iron. Instruments of music. You have none?&#8221;<br />Mat wondered what it thought the knife was; it certainly did not seem concerned over it. Well, the blade was good steel, not iron.&quot;<br /><br />Something peculiar, perhaps. They walk for a long time, until Mat expresses impatience: &#8220;I hope you are taking me to those who can answer my questions. Burn my bones, I do. For my sake and yours, the Light know it true.&#8221;<br /><br />And suddenly they're there, where they were going, where the questions can be answered.<br /><br />Something else, look at what Mat says:<br />&quot;&#8220;Burn your eyes! The Shadow take your souls, loose me! I will have your guts for a saddle girth!&#8221; But writhe and curse as he would, those long fingers gripped like iron.&quot;<br /><br />SR chapter 24, Rhuidean, also Mat's POV.<br /><br />&#8220;Do you abide by the treaties and agreements? Do you carry iron, or instruments of music, or devices for making light?&#8221;<br /><br />The terms are different here:<br />&#8220;If you can take me to where I can get a few questions answered, lead the way. If not, I will be going, with apologies for bothering you.&#8221;<br />&#8220;No!&#8221; Those big colorless eyes blinked in agitation. &#8220;You must not go. Come. I will take you where you may find what you need. Come.&#8221; He backed away, gesturing with both hands. &#8220;Come.&#8221;<br />and<br />&#8220;Speak,&#8221; one of the women said in that growling voice. &#8220;By the ancient treaty, here is agreement made.<br />What is your need? Speak.&#8221;<br /><br />Again, he seems to be walking &quot;in circles&quot; for a good amount of time and again he has to threaten his guide to get somewhere. Courage, perhaps? <br /><br />&quot;He peered into the next and saw black columns, the redstone ter&#8217;angreal, his footprints and his guide&#8217;s in the dust.<br />When the narrow-jawed man looked over his shoulder again, Mat gave him a toothy grin. &#8220;Never think you have caught a babe in your snare. If you try to cheat me, I will have your hide for a saddlecloth.&#8221; &quot;<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">The only way to convince me is by providing some evidence!</font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-24 12:14:58
subject: <b>Merry Christmas Etzel...</b>
body:
and everyone else that visits the TP.<br /><br />TP Admin Simon<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1"><b>Founding member of the ASI</b><br /><br /><b>TP ADMIN</b><br /><br /><b>Simon</b><br /></font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-24 14:07:08
subject: <b>Wouldn't it be a big kick in the pants..</b>
body:
If instead of staging an elaborate and dangerous rescue, Thom traded the Finn-folk his knowledge of being able to play the harp and/or recite stories in exchange for Moiraine's freedom?  I mean, Egwene's dream was that Thom &quot;put his hand into a fire to draw out the small blue stone that now dangled on Moiraine's forehead.&quot; To me that doesn't suggest a grand and dangerous rescue so much as it does some great personal sacrifice on Thom's part. <br /><br />... Or maybe he'll simply shoot a Finn out of a cannon while singing a battle song. <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/tongue.gif" border="0" /><br /><br />My other random thought was that if Moiraine is a prisoner, how is she being held? Finn-world appears to be a weird and whacky place. Would it be as simple as Thom rushing down to some dungeon, with Moiraine in a cell and probably shielded while all the natives are blinded and dazed? Thom may be able to figure out how to escape the place with his/their life/lives using help from a board game, but I wonder how he'll find Moiraine at all, much less get her free of whatever &quot;prison&quot; she's in.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">&quot;It's a magical world, Hobbes, ol' buddy...<br /><br />... Let's go exploring!&quot;</font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-24 14:13:44
subject: <b>Well how about...</b>
body:
What about an adam? I know the finnlanders can't channel as far as we know, but were the adam orignaly iron?<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1"><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/jester.gif" border="0" /> A Wise Man Once Said,<img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/leia.gif" border="0" /><br />Are You Naturally Stupid Or Is It Something You Learnt.<br />P.s.  A wise man is a bit like a wise woman but with less adjusting of shawls, <br />less sniffing and generally makes a lot more sense. <br /></font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-24 23:35:25
subject: <b>One question</b>
body:
After collecting my thoughts, I do have quite a question on the subject:<br /><br />If the Finns have to ask and verify from people who enter whether or not any of the forbidden items have been brought, does that mean that the entrants can simply tell a lie and actually bring the items?<br /><br />If they did have a verification mechanism, you would think that they would not need to ask at the entrance, so it would seem likely that there is no way of knowing till the time is upon them.  <br /><br />Cheating is more along the lines of breaking the rules, whereas the music box, cuendillar, firesticks are all examples of finding loopholes to work through the rules.  At least, that is my interpretation of cheating and your proposed solution as it stands.<br /><br />Thoughts?<br /><br />Curiously,<br />WindbitersFinger


created: 2004-12-25 18:27:29
subject: <b>ok...</b>
body:
there's nothing really new in this theory; the only thing you suggest that's different from the general speculation is that they might use a music box - which is an interesting thought.<br /><br />badassasha'man<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">badassasha'man<br />Life is Good</font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-26 09:00:06
subject: <b>Aleria Elfinn is</b>
body:
From Steven Brust's 'Taltos' series.<br /><br />Another good cross-reference is from George RR Martin's 'A Song of Ice and Fire': Lord Jordayne of Tor, whose sigil is a quill on a checkered background, or something like that.<br /><br />And just lie to the Finns. The only way to win is to cheat!<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">&quot;You seem a decent fellow... I'd hate to kill you.&quot;</font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-28 10:17:24
subject: <b>I like it.</b>
body:
I'm kind of new to this board and to the theory posts, so I haven't read any others like this yet.  I like it, and I think it was well though out and organized.  The only catch I can see is with using an cuendillar *chain* to bind the Finn.  I always assumed that cuendillar fused iron into one large piece, hence Egwene turning the harbor chain in TV to cuendillar and making it permanently block the harbor.  So I think a simple, small piece of cuendillar would be much more likely - a medallion they could hang around a Finn's neck, or put on its clothes...etc.  I like the theory, though! <br /><br />I also agree with whoever said that in keeping with the Snakes and Foxes game, only two people will exit the Tower - Moiraine and, I think, Thom...due to Egwene's dream.  <br /><br />-oosquai


created: 2004-12-29 11:51:13
subject: <b>Some things</b>
body:
I agree that Thom and Olver are the most likely ones to go to the Ghenjei Tower and to rescue Moiraine. I also like the idea that capturing 'finns could be the key of victory, and that all the four means to cheat are the possibilities to have a 'finn catched.<br /><br />The rules of the children game say that the player winns if coming to the central cell of the labyrinth. That never happens because 'finns allways catch you before the central cell. So maybe the only thing one needs is to prevent being catched when the 'finns find you. But this preventing is not so far from capturing the finns. However the main condition to win will be to come into the central cell.<br /><br />Here I have a disagreement with most of the previous posts. Everyone seems to suppose that when Thom enters Ghenjei Tower he will immediately meet some 'finns and they will ask him about the forbidden things. In the redstone door ter'angreals it's so, but in the redstone doors there is nothing like the snakes-and-foxes game. In the game the players are attempting to come in the central cell and it will be the victory, but the 'finns chase the players and prevent them to get in the central cell. The 'finns in the game win when they catch the playes, and they catch him when they are in the cell where the player is. If they catch him, he never comes in the central place. Just the opposite is in the red doors - the finns guide the visitor into the central cell and meet him from the very beginning. The redstone doors are very different case form the case that is behind the game.<br /><br />I believe that the red doors are result of successfull for the humans Ghenjei game in the past, that ended with some controlled form for humans to get usefull things from things without playing the game (and wihtout the risk of losing the skin just because some Eelfinn asks you). In return the 'finns had the right to forbid the items that hurt them and coming through the ter'angreal is signal for the 'finns. <br /><br />I believe that when one comes through the Ghenjei Tower it doesn't signal the 'finns and they don't meet you from the beginning. But when they will meet the player, they will not ask him about anything, but they will catch him and make him what they want without giving anything in return.<br /><br />So Thom will have no problems with thinking out any special form of fire, music and iron. He could bring his harp, and a whole arsenal of most obvious iron and all the time have a lighting torch. There would be no 'finn to ask him a question. Ghenjei Tower is rather a way to 'finns independent of the &quot;ancient agreement&quot;, and the rules there would be &quot;catch as catch can&quot;. When Thom meets the first 'finn he will have no conversation with the 'finn but only a fight.<br /><br />Another thing about Thom's eventual trip to Ghenjei Tower. It is not so easy to go from the place where Thom is now to the place where the Tower is in the normal Randland. Ghenjei Tower is located somewhere north of river what-was-it's-name that goes from Saldea to Illian. This Tower is located in a uninhabited region, amaybe formally in the boundaries of northwest Andor, maybe in noth direction outside Andoran borders. Thom is very far away in south Altara now. So Thom cannot come to the Tower Ghenjei without a help of a channeler who can Travel, or without a to'raken.<br /><br />Also Thom couldn't be in the Ghenjei region by accident. It is far from any ways or any possible travel destinations. There are no reasons to go in the direction unless your explicite goal is to come to the Tower of Ghenjei. So Thom must plan the Ghenjei trip being somewhere far away, and he has to convince a Travel-able channeler or a Seanchan High Blood (why the second seems more likely now?) to support this plan. Thom needs the cooperation of Tuon, at least for to come close to the Tower of Ghenjei.


created: 2005-01-04 15:24:11
subject: <b>Two go in.</b>
body:
I have enjoyed the line of thought and the Blackboard comments.  <br />For a companion to Thom - Who knows the fox's better then the Mayene?  Who knows cheating better then Berelain?<br />If as a dragonburned fool suggests the doorways are from past human wins the perhaps it was someone from Mayene who won. And perhaps some record remains.  As First Berelain may have this knowledge.


created: 2005-01-11 09:22:15
subject: <b>Instead of firesticks . . .</b>
body:
Just a small suggestion -- Instead of firesticks, which may or may not make it into Finnland, what if the bearer of the fireworks just simply exposed the innards to air?<br /><br />Normally, instant explosion, right?<br /><br />Maybe if it is Noal who goes with Thom, then his juggling fire is him opening the fireworks and possibly sacrificing himself.<br /><br />Just a thought.


created: 2005-01-14 17:38:16
subject: <b>ancient memories</b>
body:
In the same respect that the game of snakes and foxes is some ancient memory of this escape happening previously, perhaps, the fire, music, and iron is also some ancient relic of a bygone age for the finns.  These items are obviously the tools used in the escape, however, they are forbidden in Finnland not because of some inherent weakness like kryptonite, but merely because of an ancient memory that these were the tools which were used to beat them before.


created: 2005-02-19 18:11:28
subject: <b>looks good, exept</b>
body:
im still a bit shaky on the cuendillar as steel. most everything else is good.<br /><br />A while ago i read a theory concerning Lanfears immense power and beauty. It talked of her going to the Aelfin ('a' are the ones that grant wishes, right?) and cheating, escaping with her wishes. if its been done once, it can be done twice.<br /><br />and JustAnotherGreensWarder, guess what? its spelled tHom. WITH AN 'H'. okay... had to get that out...<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">-Sabin<br /><br /></font><p></p>


created: 2005-03-15 00:54:08
subject: <b>New to the Board</b>
body:
It sounds as though this has been covered quite extensively.  <br />The game seems to indicate that there are only 2 humans, so Thom will most likely go in alone (after being prepared by Mat when he 'remembers' how others beat the Finn's in the past and escaped).<br />I've been wondering about whether Mat's 'inventing' cannons has something to do with breaking the Finn's rules and capturing a Finn.  If Thom smuggles in a firearm, not a cannon, but a small one he could carry on his person, that would explain all but the music - something to 'distract' a Finn?  A good theory, overall though.


created: 2005-04-01 07:39:00
subject: <b>hmmnnn</b>
body:
I like this idea. I really think Thom will enter Finnland alone, and he and Moraine will recreate the circumstances of the game as two humans trying to escape. Personally I don't think it will be anything as obvious as some suggest ie: Thom forcing his way in with a flaming torch, a harp and a metal chain. If nothing else, how the hell does he play the harp while carrying a torch and a chain? Besides, RJ never does anything obvious!!<br />The most likely to accompany Thom is Matt - but he's already been through both doors - and they can only be entered once... can he even return to Finnland?<br />And if he does I suspect he'd end up stealing the show, when this is supposed to be Thoms adventure.<br />Olver is a boy, so noone will let him go in, and no one else with Thom even knows Moraine let alone care's enough to save her. <br />Besides - this is Thom's adventure. He'll rescue the girl and win her heart... sort of.<br /><br />I suspect that it will be the fire sticks, probably Thom's voice (humming or whistling? maybe singing battle chants). The iron is the tough one. <br />While the male a'dam is a good idea, there's no indication that it will have any effect on a non-channeller, and it's described as a black metal...not necessarily iron.<br />But Matt may already have provided the answer - &quot;Mat wondered what it thought the knife was; it certainly did not seem concerned over it. Well, the blade was good steel, not iron.&quot; <br />The Finns knew he had a steel knife and acted as though this was ok by the agreement.<br />Steel contains iron to bind, but isn't technically iron itself? And Perrin's a blacksmith who knows a whole lot about iron and steel... pity he's off playing in the snow.<br /><br />How about this:<br />Thom (somehow) finds his way into the Tower of Genji. When he is met by a Finnish representative, he recalls the old stories and whips out a box of firesticks. While the Finn looks on in bemusement, Thom scrabbles out a single firestick. Looking around at the smooth interior of the finn's abode he curses quietly to himself, then (like a classic Western Cowboy) lights the stick on the sole of his boot. The finn lurches back with a hiss, covering it's eye's and squealing in shock. Before it can scurry away, Thom begins humming quietly to himself (&quot;I'm down at the bottom of the well&quot;? I know thats Mat's trick but still LOL) as the finn hears the music it stops and stares at Thom in a daze. Limping up to the Finn and grabbing it by the scruff of its neck, Thom whirls it around and with a deft flick of one hand he produces a SHINY STEEL DAGGER!!!!! The knife pressed tightly to the finn's throat Thom gruffly demands &quot;Take me to your Aes Sedai prisoner... or I'll make a harness out of YOUR hide!!&quot; <br />Once he finds Moraine, the Finn hostage escapes or dies and they have to make run for it. Taa Daa!!!!<br /><br />Contrary to what &quot;a drogonburned fool&quot; says, the key to the game Snakes and foxes is not just to get to the central chamber. It's to get from the centre of the board (the tower of Ghenji?) to the edge (the foxes prison?) and back to the centre. Thom will cheat (fire song and steel) to get to the edge (probably a comparatively easy move in the game) then the heat will be on to get back to the exit (remember the game Olver and Mat played - they were almost back to the centre, only then did they get totally creamed)<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">Some say it's better to live one day as a lion than a whole lifetime as a worm...but whoever heard of a wormskin rug? <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/perplexed.gif" border="0" /></font><p></p>


created: 2005-04-24 14:55:41
subject: <b>Iron is not steel</b>
body:
In The Shadow Rising,when mat is in Finnland,from tear,he has (STEEL) knives up his sleves,and he even states:<br /><br />Finn:&quot;Iron. Instruments of music, You have none?&quot;<br />Mat:Mat wondered,what it thought the knife was; it certainly did not seem conserned over it. Well, the blade was good steel, not iron.&quot;no,No iron,and no istruments of  --Why?--?<br /><br />So even if a army of...well anything can though the ToG,with full suits of steel,and swords they could bring it,because as mat states,steel is not iron<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">Duty is as Heavy as a Moutain<br /><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/whitecloak.gif" border="0" /> <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/king.gif" border="0" /> <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/whitecloak.gif" border="0" /><br />Death is as Light as a Feather<br /><br /><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/flamingsword.gif" border="0" /> Wanna Play rough? Ok, SAY HELLO TO MY LITTLE FRIEND! <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/flamingsword.gif" border="0" /><br /><br /><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/rant.gif" border="0" /> WE WANT KNIFE OF DREAMS! <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/rant.gif" border="0" /><br /></font><p></p>


created: 2005-05-09 00:14:03
subject: <b>To Cheat</b>
body:
The most obvious why to cheat is to stake your side. Two extra players perhaps?<br /><br />Thom = Music<br />Perrin = Iron<br />Aludra = Fire<br />Many have courage, but Tuon has the most to prove.<br /><br />Mat has been pestering Aludra for a long time now to get the secret of fireworks. He need only solve the riddle that she has set.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1"><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/darkone.gif" border="0" /><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/darkone.gif" border="0" /><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/darkone.gif" border="0" /><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/darkone.gif" border="0" /><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/aessedai.gif" border="0" /><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/aessedai.gif" border="0" /><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/aessedai.gif" border="0" /></font><p></p>


created: 2005-05-26 21:22:55
subject: <b>Finn talk</b>
body:
remember how they were like &quot;No musical instruments, or works of iron&quot;? Well, think about it. They know the could be cheated. <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/banana.gif" border="0" />   sorry, i just like the banana<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">Snow <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/darkone.gif" border="0" /><br /><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/madmyrddraal.gif" border="0" /> <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/myrddraal.gif" border="0" /> <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/madmyrddraal.gif" border="0" /> <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/myrddraal.gif" border="0" /> <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/madmyrddraal.gif" border="0" /></font><p></p>


created: 2005-05-31 17:40:15
subject: <b>I voted yes, though i believe it will be 4 that enter and not 2.</b>
body:
Courage to strengthen, fire to blind, music to daze, iron to bind.<br /><br />Courage= Mat <br /><br />I have to say Mat is the courage in this because of something Siuan said about her uncle and mat being alike.  How her uncle was lazy, but when a house full of kids caught on fire he ran in the house to save.  Kept going back until he eventually was killed by the fire.  She then ask Mat, what will you do when the fires are burning.  Its a clear statement that she believes mat as the courage.<br /><br />Fire= Wildcard.  Could be Rand, Tuon or Aludra.  Though I lean to Rand only after his current advisor dies.<br /><br />Music= Thom <br /><br />Iron= Perrin he is a blacksmith after all.  <br /><br />I dont think Moiraine gets saved in the upcoming book unless Rand gets freed early and some how puts all 3 Ta'veren in a position to pull off a Hail Mary to save Moiraine.  I've long believed that Moiraine will play a key part in bringing the Dragon Reborns sanity back.  <br />To teach him laugther and tears.  Uniting with Moiraine will bring the tears, after all when she died was the last time he cried.  His kids will bring him laughter will remind him he is flesh, because finally he was part of creating something not destroying it.


created: 2005-08-25 23:48:28
subject: <b>Just a thought...</b>
body:
I was just reading over these posts again, and thought to my self... Mat was not sure about his knife. What I mean is if the person is &quot;unaware&quot; of the items they possess until after they are asked the yes/no agreement intro, they would not really be telling a lie. For exampale Mat explaines how to beat the Efflin(sp) to Thom and secretly puts the &quot;iron, fire, and maybe music&quot; into Thoms coat. When Thom enters either the archway or ToG he could say &quot;no&quot; to the questions and not be responsable for the lie. Right, maybe, or maybe I just need somemore sleep <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/smile.gif" border="0" />. Good theory though.


created: 2005-09-06 17:31:04
subject: <b>Hopefully</b>
body:
Could very well be. But if you think about it your voice can be used as music as well not just an instrument.  You naturally have iron in your blood. Courage comes from within as well. That only leaves fire and Aludra could help out with that very nicely but thats about it.  I cant wait to find out thought, Moiraine needs to return already and hopefully she got the power that was taken from Lanfear upon turning to Cyndane.


created: 2005-10-31 16:42:12
subject: <b>Music</b>
body:
music is the easiest thing in the world to sneak into anywhere. All you need is someone who can sing as Thom obviosly can.<br /><br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~<br />Shadow men talk a real good game<br />Every punchline has your name<br />You cried out and no one came to you<br />~Tom Petty~<br /><br />Is is bad that I hear WOT references in my music collection?</font><p></p>


created: 2006-02-05 16:24:04
subject: <b>I agree</b>
body:
I had thought of something like this myself, and am impressed with the well thought out theory. Since much of RJ's writing is cryptic, maybe the music, fire and iron represent the people that can beat the Finns. Aludra for the fire (her firesticks) and she is like a wildcard because she never knew Moiraine, Thom is the music (he is a gleeman), and Mat would be the iron (iron will=stubborn=mat is stubborn). <br />I also like the idea that they ask for the things once they are inside though.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">&quot;I may be a fool, but I intend to be a live fool.&quot; <br />- Mat Cauthon<br /><br /><br /><br />I luv Lan!</font><p></p>


created: 2006-02-05 17:13:25
subject: <b>I voted Yes</b>
body:
Very well thought out. I agree, i feel that there is something important about the game. Like maybe if you play with three humans instead of two the snakes and foxes can't win mathematically. Because lets see: Two dice: highest possible roll 12 divied by 3 = 4 insted of six. Anyway i think that the game it'self is something that has been over looked.


created: 2007-01-06 07:48:18
subject: <b>another thing</b>
body:
In Winters Heart there was a couplet that went first the elfinn to steal all your bread then come the ogiers to chop off your head.  He never just throws out these.


created: 2007-11-10 00:20:22
subject: <b>no tricks...</b>
body:
I always pictured Moiraine's rescue as a storm-the-castle type of affair.  Since Thom won't be entering Finnland through a normal entrance (i.e. doorway), there's no reason he should be 'greeted' by anyone and therefore, should have no need to 'smuggle' in the needed music, fire and iron.<br />I really do like the idea of them exiting Finnland through another doorway though...


created: 2004-12-29 04:56:00
subject: <b>Maybe, maybe not</b>
body:
You assume that because dark one hasn't won before, he can't win ever. Dark one needs to win only once, and that's it. So people in randland better not get lazy because &quot;dark one doen't win&quot;, or he does win.


created: 2004-12-29 05:08:06
subject: <b>I don't understand the math...</b>
body:
And actually don't <i> want </i> to understand it (<img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/wink.gif" border="0" />), but it's fun to read and I agree that the DO will never win; the pattern is too &quot;clever&quot;.<br />


created: 2004-12-29 06:26:06
subject: <b>good work, but uhm</b>
body:
... Somehow I don't think Robert Jordan is this accurate, or even ment for people to be able to &quot;calculate&quot; the outcome of The Last battle.<br /><br />Still, nice one. Oh, and by the way, you really need to get a life, ok?


created: 2004-12-29 06:43:51
subject:
<b>Infinitely small <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/wheel.gif" border="0" /> zero</b>

body:
&quot;There are lies, damn lies, and statistics&quot;.<br /><br />Your proof relies on calculators being 100% accurate.  What we get, from your model, is a probability that is always approaching zero without ever reaching it.   Whether the model itself makes sense, dunno.  My head hurts.


created: 2004-12-29 06:50:26
subject: <b>To Lews Albar</b>
body:
I agree with this  &quot; I don't think Robert Jordan is this accurate, or even meant for people to be able to &quot;calculate&quot; the outcome of The Last battle. &quot; <br /><br />But that's the fun with these type of theories. Someone has taken the time to work out all these calculations and apply them to a theory. Reason why I posted this theory, it's been a while since someone has taken the time to post a theory &quot;backed up by mathematics&quot; .<br /><br />To &quot;terpstra&quot; thanks for giving me the chance to post your theory.<br /><br /><br /><br /><font size="-1"><b>Founding member of the ASI</b><br /><br /><b>TP ADMIN</b><br /><br /><b>Simon</b><br /></font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-29 09:09:42
subject: <b>The theory is mathematically accurate</b>
body:
It does not depend on calculators being prcise enough. As the number of events k (DO trying to win) approaches infinity, a^k ,where 0 &lt;= a &lt; 1 ,approaches 0.<br /><br />The theory says that it is a necessity that the good guys had a probability of success p &gt; 0 in every <i>previous</i> age, since the DO's previous success would be evident in the current age. It also proves (or says that it can prove) that if it can be set as a general rule that p &gt; 0 for <i>any</i> given age, the DO will always loose.<br />The problem, which this theory does not approach is that if it is possible for p = 0, the whole argumentation collapses. If p = 0, the DO wins becuse of the definition of the probability. <br />It is of course very unlikely that there will be absolutely <i>no</i> probability of the good guys winning in a given age.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1"><br />Reading is lighter than a feather, waiting is heavier than a mountain<br /><font color="white">_____</font><b>-Maginor</b><br /><br /><br /></font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-29 09:59:03
subject: <b>What if the dark one does win</b>
body:
it would be funny, all of us reading, expecting a miracle, and then wam, the wheel of time is broken. Maybe that's the whole point of everything. Too bad i don't think it RJ's style as he hasn't killed anyone off yet.


created: 2004-12-29 11:08:51
subject: <b>Probabilities in our world and in WoT-world</b>
body:
Even without mathematics it's not easy to understand the DO's situation of alreasy having infinite loses in infinite number of Last Battles. With mathematics it becomes only more explicite. However there are some factors that make the picture much more complicite and that make the eventual DO's victory possible.<br /><br />The first of these factors is, that the laws of probabilities will work only if the particular chances are independent of each other. As You said:<br /><br />***&quot;(1-p) is the chance that the Dark One loses. The probability that dark one lost last spin and the spin before is (1-p) * (1-p) = (1-p)^2, supposing he gets an independent chance each time. However, the Dark One has actually lost more times than any number we pick; (each negative integer is in the list of turnings).&quot;***<br /><br />But could we assume that DO has an independent chance each time. If DO was a non-sentient mechanism, he could &quot;forget&quot; the last attempt before the beginning of the next and so every new chance will be independent of the previous. But since DO is sentient being and has memory, he couldn't act independently of the previous attempts. Even a simple mortal if making many unsuccessful attempts, would be not an example of the laws of the probability (and in this case the reason for the further unsuccess will be not the law of probability, but a psychological reason), for a divine being like DO it's unevitable that there will be lot of continuous processes in the game.<br /><br />A second factor is the fact that DO is in some way &quot;uotside time&quot;. That means that when DO fights the Last Battle again and again, it may be not an infinite chain of defeats for DO's own perspective. For DO now could be the equivalent of e.g. the second attempt. DO and the Wheel are not synchronized in time and that gives a lot of unknown possibilities.<br /><br />A third factor is that in WoT universe there are things that can twist the laws of probability. I.e. exactly the mathematical laws, You are basing Your argument on, is not allways reliable in WoTWorld. There are ta'veren, and there are even ways to twist the probabilities without being a ta'veren (the dice ter'angreal creates something like that and it depends on when an AS is using it, not on when the Wheel wants it).<br /><br />So there are enough things in WoT universe to rule out the probabilities issue.


created: 2004-12-29 11:44:28
subject: <b>Flawed but Sound Math</b>
body:
The Math is sound but the application as fact can be disputed.<br /><br />Let's say that (q) is the light's chance of winning.  Just because the light has won in the past doesn't guarentee victory in the future in fact if anyhting your theroy helps prove it in evitable failure.  If you apply the same limit on (q) and k is now all the future integers of the pattern starting with Rand's now as 0 you get the limit as (1-q)^k goes to infinity is equal also to zero.<br /><br />Another point is that in each (k) (q) and (p) are not equal to the previous (k) (q) and (p).  Since the world is different in each (k) so shall the percentage of (q) and (p) be different.<br /><br />if (h) is the DO power rating for a certain (k) then there could be a equation like<br />h= (f(d) + f(f) + b +f(c))* f(k)<br />where f(d) is a function of darkfriends, f(f) is a function of the forsaken, (b) is the bore size, and f(c) covers all other contributing factors and the f(k) is the randomness of order and is different for each (k).<br /><br />also lets say the (r) is the light side power rating with its own equations<br /><br />so (h+r)/h=p and (h+r)/r=q and 1-p=q<br /><br />Now we have the pattern which can be thought of as a self sustaining logic program set into motion by the creator.  Now for the program to be self sustaining the creator must have made it inherently unfair so that the DO can never win.  Something over simplified like this:<br /><br />1) If p&lt;q then 2) else 4)<br />2) q=q+10<br />3) goto 1)<br />4) &quot;End of Age&quot;<br />5) run program (h)<br />6) run program (r)<br />7) p=(h+r)/h<br /><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/cool.gif" border="0" /> q=1-p<br />9) goto 1)<br /><br />You can think of the pattern as a computer game set in motion by the creator (programer) and played by the DO (Joe Public) both outside the pattern the creator no longer touching the pattern and the DO trying to get in.  Here if the object of the game is to have either (p) aka DO or (q)aka light, higher by &quot;End of Age&quot; (q) will always win, because the pattern will always cheat to win.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">Deserves got nothing to do with it. <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/bobbafett.gif" border="0" /></font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-29 12:21:11
subject: <b>Wow... It's like looking in a mirror</b>
body:
Ok, I used logic very similar to this to prove a wide variety of clearly ludicrous things a while ago. The realization that I eventually came to was that I was getting the wrong solution. The same can be done for the probability of the Dark One winning. The real answer is that 0 does not and can not exist in mathmatics as we know it. It shatters almost every mathmatical rule that we have. I'm sorry, but your math is wrong based on the fact that you are using a number that simply doesnt exist.


created: 2004-12-29 15:13:27
subject: <b>Logic is flawed</b>
body:
You are supposed to calculate a chance of DO winning in the current Age, but you are calculating the history of already happened chances. If you know math then you should know that probability of ANY EVENT to happen infinite number of times is zero (when the event has non-zero chance to happen at least once). That also means that probability of ANY EVENT to happen X number of times goes to zero as X grows.<br /><br />Notice &quot;ANY EVENT&quot;. That means: DO wins, Light wins, coin flips, you win lottery, etc...<br /><br />You theory is not much a proof. As mathematician I say it's a piece of joke. <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/frown.gif" border="0" />


created: 2004-12-29 17:43:47
subject: <b>The wheel is not infinite</b>
body:
Actual infinity is a logical absurdity. In an actual, or complete, infinite, the distance between any two 'points' of this infinite is an infinite distance. Thus if time were an actual infinite, to reach the present moment from the previous moment we would have traversed an infinite- something which is rendered impossible by the very nature of infinites. However fantastical 'Randland' *spits* may be, there is absolutely no way it could bend these basic laws of logic. Thus the wheel DID have a beginning- anyway, RJ tells us this: the Creator made the wheel, meaning at one point it did not exist, and thus it had a beginning. <br /><br />The people in the world of the wheel probably regard it as infinite in the same way that most people regard our universe as being infinite- they say 'oh, it goes on forever', but they don't actually think of the absurd logical consenquences of that. Infinity is a lovely concept to play with in mathematics, but applying it to reality is ridiculous.<br /><br />PS. I don't think the DO's going to win though<br />PPS. Oh, and no I'm not White Ajah <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/wink.gif" border="0" /><br /><br /><br /><font size="-1"><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/mat.gif" border="0" /> It's all in your head</font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-29 18:13:16
subject: <b>Ah stats</b>
body:
Just to confuse things more... You are using a geometric rv here(number of trials till success) If you assume each trial is independent, it shown that a geometric is memmoryless that is, the probability of success on the n'th trial is the same as the probability in the k'th trial. So in any iteration of the age where he is trying to break free he has the same chance. Mathematically.<br /><br />Anyway. I do think the DO cannot win. From Suan's rants it's clear that she does not think that who Rand is, is enough. She thinks that fate will not carry him along. Moiraine's beliefs are the same. The books show their opinion to be just plain wrong. The pattern has a plan, and that plan is that the Great Lord will be resealed. In a way the Pattern itself is the Great Lord's prison, or perhaps the prison's warden. The Great Lord is trying to break the Pattern, to alter and corrupt it in such a way that he can get free. The taveren are the Pattern's &quot;antibodies&quot;, the cure to that poison.


created: 2004-12-29 18:59:55
subject: <b>To Charkorik</b>
body:
The number 0 does exist in mathematics. Its existence is essential to modern mathematical theory. That it is possible to misapply a concept does not invalidate it.<br /><br />As for this theory, the flaw is the assumption of independence, i.e., that the Dark One has the exactly the same chance of winning each time. Given this assumption, the conclusion appears to follows, but this assumption has never been justified. I think it might be possible to get around this, but as is the proof doesn't work.


created: 2004-12-30 01:25:09
subject: <b>Can't argue with this theory</b>
body:
If the Wheel has _always_ been turning then if the Dark One ever had a chance to win, he would have.  If he had one chance in a million, it would have come up.<br /><br />My favorite theory is that the Dark One wins, destroys the Wheel, creates a new Wheel and the Creator becomes the new Dark One.<br /><br /><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/devil.gif" border="0" />


created: 2004-12-30 01:46:41
subject: <b>Odd</b>
body:
While I find the theory interesting, it is inherently flawed. For instance, you use the simile of a coin landing heads twice as being 25%. This is correct. However, let's complicate it a bit. I bet you the quarter you are flipping that it will land tails at least once in 100 flips. There are three areas we are concerned with: all heads, all tails, and a mixture of each.<br /><br />You state P&gt;0 for the chances of the DO to win. True, but this is more accurate--1&gt;P&gt;0. (1-P)^n is not the correct equation to determine the chances of the DO to win, but rather of the pattern to win. Therefore, as each chance passes, the statistical chance for the pattern to win approaches zero. Referencing the paragraph above, we have three areas with which we're concerned: all wins, all losses, and a mixture of each. As I'm sure logic has already dictated to you, either of the last two cases are favorable to the DO. In other words, his chances don't decrease--just the chances of all wins (which is immediately 0 once the pattern won a single time)--they increase exponentially with each confrontation.<br /><br />Now each instance is separate. This means the odds fluctuate from time to time. Statistics do, however, affect it. For everyone saying each time can't be considered in the whole. . . it can and we are. Just like repeatedly rolling two dice, each roll's probability is separate from the one before it. Statistics merely corelate how probability behaves in a series. In this case, the most common result is 7 (which has 6 possible die combinations), followed by 6 and 8 (which have 5 combinations), then 5 and 9, 4 and 10, 3 and 11, and finally 1 and 12 (having a single comination for each). So, with flipping a coin, with each heads result we see in a roll, there is an increasing chance the next will be tails while still maintaining the 50/50 odds. . . Ain't math fun?<br /><br />Now, I have to say that RJ has a background working with numbers and could appreciate this theory. I think the problem is we're dealing with absolutes here. Does anyone have a theory whereby the DO's success must be complete and all-encompassing or is otherwise moot? I should add that this theory would need to keep in mind that the DO only has to win in one world to win in them all (which presents a paradox to such a theory, assuming it's true to begin with).


created: 2004-12-30 03:25:10
subject: <b>This is impossible..</b>
body:
Because, the events of the various Ages are absolutely not independent, therefore the entire formula is unfit for analyzing the situation.  The taint on saidin was put in place by the Dark One during the Second Age, or Age of Legends.  It is still around in the Third Age, therefore obviously his influence from one Age lingers to the next.  Need I mention the Forsaken, thirteen souls transported by him straight from the Age of Legends?  This makes it plain that the variable is -never- independent, it will always depend on how succesful he was in the previous age.  It is very possibly for the Dark One to break free, and quite frankly who can say that he hasn't before?  Who says this is the first time the Wheel has been made by the Creator, it could just as easily have been created, spun for a time, then destroyed and recreated infinite times before...


created: 2004-12-30 03:39:19
subject: <b>you guys are on crack</b>
body:
What are you guys talking about? The Dark One HAS won before. Don't you remember Ba'alzamon (sp?) telling Rand that some Ages Lews Therin Telamon won, failed, and even SERVED the Dark One? Since there's probably been an infinite amount of recycled ages (or close to it), your same probability factor must account for at least ONE victory in that infinite time cycle. Also, why would Ishamael lie to Rand? He really has nothing to gain. Also, since Ishamael has been around for a LONG time, I'll take his word over Rand's suspicions.<br /><br />Sorry guys, but your same probability idea betrays you in the total cycle of time.


created: 2004-12-30 14:00:29
subject: <b>Okay.......</b>
body:
Cleantoe-<br /><br />I can't tell if you are kidding or not. If he were able to convince Rand that LTT served the DO in a previous age, then Rand might be more malleable. If Rand thought that the DO has won, then Rand might find it hopeless and not fight, making the DO win.<br /><br /><br /><br />Eric119-<br /><br />You said it yourself, 0 is a concept. It isn't a number. I will bet you that without using a 0, you cannot prove any other formula wrong. 0 is the only concept that can make an equation not work, and 0 makes quite a few not work. No number can be misapplied, only concepts and ideas. The only way to misapply a number is if you ignore mathematics.<br /><br /><br /><br />Everybody who agrees with this theory-<br /><br />It is a good and fun idea, unfortunately, it is naturally flawed.


created: 2004-12-30 14:09:39
subject: <b>I think you're right.</b>
body:
I like your math.  Along another vein, in the Great Hunt, Lanfear tells Rand about the portal stones.  I think the portal stones lead to all other possible worlds.  Somewhere, in a later book, I think it's Verin that muses about some paradox that if the Dark One is free in one of those worlds, he is free in all of them.<br /><br />My take on this is that if there is even if there is an iota of a chance that the Dark One is free, he would be free because that minuscule possibility given infinite opportunities to occur, would result in the Dark One being free.


created: 2004-12-30 16:31:13
subject: <b>My HEAD Hurts!</b>
body:
I think your theory is well thought out but after reading it my head hurts. I think I will take two asprin and go lay down.


created: 2004-12-30 16:40:40
subject: <b>Well I'm glad you didn't get hit too hard</b>
body:
though I do have to disagree with you not so much on the math itself but one key point in your theory is that the wheel is infinite in both directions.  According to what is &quot;known&quot; the wheel was created giving it a &quot;Beginning&quot; or &quot;The Beginning&quot; according to Hopper who has a very long memory in T'A'R.  If the DO's previous losses weren't infinite than his probability of winning can't be eliminated.  But thanks for the idea and the work.  And thanks to almost everybody else who commented on the theory and not on if they thought it was a worthwhile topic.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">Where did these Skimmers come from?  I mean if they didn't want to read the book they could have just Traveled to another author.  Why risk arriving at the wrong destination?  Why risk falling into darkness?</font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-30 21:41:20
subject: <b>math</b>
body:
i bloody hate math more then Mat hates the dice in his head and getting married combined<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1"><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/bandredhand.gif" border="0" /> Carai an Calhar! Dovie'andi se tovya sagain! <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/bandredhand.gif" border="0" /><br /><br />Loth<br />~~M'hael de Shen al Calhar~~<br /></font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-30 23:52:27
subject: <b>Interesting</b>
body:
The thing is that no matter how many times you divide a number, it will never reach zero. (unless that number is zero) So I'm not sure that I like the math.  Then again, I've only taken up to trig thus far in my life, so what do I no?<br /><br />But, if the Dark One ever did win, then that would be the most likely point in time for a book to be written about.  Wouldn't it?  That's not to say he most certainly does, because there are writings from the next age placed in these books.<br /><br />It is, however, possible for the wheel to have always existed.   In all likelyhood, the Creator, based as he is on the concept of God (Jordan is a student of world religion, and I'm only sure about the Catholic belief on the subject)  who is supposed to have always existed, and therefore exist outside of time.  Since the Creator and Dark One are equals (I recall reading that Jordan said this) the Dark One must exist outside of time as well.  So then it is my thought on the subject that the Dark One is working in all times at once.  The concept is really impossible to comprehend.  I know I can't at least.  Honestly, imagine existance without time.  You can't, because it takes time to imagine.  Imagine that.<br /><br />So really, mathematics have no place in eternity, because time has no place outside of itself.<br /><br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">One day I'll have a quote to put you all to shame.</font><p></p>


created: 2004-12-31 00:05:17
subject: <b>Calculus</b>
body:
Dreamstalker-<br /><br />That is essentially the basis of Calculus. As you divide a number it gets smaller and smaller, coming very close to 0. As the number of time you divide approaches an infinite amount, the number gets closer and closer to 0. So, when you divide an infinite amount of times, the number does equal 0. I hope that clears that up a bit.<br /><br />And if anybody who knows calc is reading this, I would just like to say that I am making it extremely simple for him. I do know calculus.


created: 2004-12-31 01:21:36
subject: <b>Another Problem</b>
body:
Another problem that I found with the theory is that the outcome of each age is not independent. The outcome of Age N is dependent on Age N-1. Having Age N is entirely dependent on the DO having lost all the previous ages. This isn't to say that the outcome of Age N is dependent on Age N-1, but the outcome of Age N-1 is dependent on there being an Age N. It's late and I'm tired and while I was able to follow the other criticisms of the theory I'm not sure if mine makes sense. Or if I explained it well enough/followed it all the way through.


created: 2004-12-31 16:43:40
subject: <b>LOL...</b>
body:
I'd just like to say that I found it extremely amusing to be browsing Wheel of Time theories and find one that involved calculus... and then find that other people were debating it on the same level...<br /><br />I don't think the DO will win, mostly because I think of them as books no matter what, and I don't think RJ would end them that way. But I love reading the theories people come up with like this one! (I'm not going to say whether I agree or disagree with your theory; your math is sound, but I don't think it works. It's been too long since I did anything like this, so I'm just going to nod my head and smile rather than trying to find an equation that WOULD work.)<br /><br />ps-- I really enjoyed whoever posted about the cheating creator and the computer game. Bravo.


created: 2005-01-01 06:02:29
subject: <b>It does work...</b>
body:
...Genius actually, my compliments to the author.<br /><br />The does in fact prove that the Dark One cannot win. <br /><br />Pretty much what it comes down to is the wheel spinning an infinite number of times (which it has, no begining, no end). So, assuming it has, the Dark One hasn't won with an infinite number of chances. So he never will. After all, Rand is simply reliving a previous age.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">Evilest of the Evil Jawas.</font><p></p>


created: 2005-01-01 15:00:59
subject: <b>My responses to comments</b>
body:
First, sorry for the delay. Contrary to popular opinion, I do have a life and that's why I didn't see this posted. =) Also, for those who care---I did mean this post as something of a joke, clearly the series doesn't need to be logically consistent.<br /><br />Let's start with all the points people raised that I agree with completely:<br /><br />1. The wheel is not infinite<br />If you think the wheel had a beginning/was created, my results are invalid. That is an assumption I make and without it the whole arguement falls appart.<br /><br />2. WOT does not obey probability<br />You could argue this point one way or the other. Perhaps it doesn't even obey the laws of physics. If you think that Matt's luck with dice disproves that probability works like in our world then again my arguement means nothing. (Note, however, that Matt's luck with dice does not prove this; perhaps the coin is simply unfair due to the wheel)<br /><br />3. Dark One has already won<br />As I mentioned in the theory I am only talking about him breaking the wheel. There are supposed to be 'degrees' of victory. I completely concede the point that the Dark One can win a lesser victory.<br /><br />4. The Dark One is outside of time<br />Perhaps if the Dark One wins, he wins simultaneously all 'Last Battles' throughout all turnings of the wheel. Ditto for if he loses. I concede this point, if this is how things work, then my arguement doesn't apply because there have not been a countable number of failures thus far.<br /><br />As to the arguments I completely disagree with:<br /><br />1. Zero / infinity doesn't exist/make sense<br />I can't argue with someone who rejects mathematics. However, the universe tends to disagree with you.<br /><br />2. The same arguement proves the light can't win<br />Actually it doesn't. There is a crucial difference: the Dark One has failed to acheive total victory, the light has never yet failed to continue the wheel. Therefore, it is possible (in fact what I prove) that the wheel continues with certainty 1.<br /><br />3. You always lose after an infinite number of trials<br />Not if the probability of success is 1.<br /><br />Finally, the most interesting point I saw above was raised by a dragonburned fool: the Dark One is sentient and learns from previous attempts and therefore the trials aren't independent.<br /><br />This is completely true and is why I mentioned a more complicated version of this proof. In fact, this doesn't matter, though I concede it is not at all clear why. I could explain this in another post, but, as I suspected, even basic calculus was not appropriate in this forum. <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/wink.gif" border="0" />


created: 2005-01-01 15:21:07
subject: <b>Oh yeah...</b>
body:
As to the &quot;as a mathematician I'd say it's something of a joke&quot;, you're right! It was a joke.<br /><br />That said, I am a PhD student with an honours BSc degree in mathematics. So, please don't attack my arguement with an appeal to authority.<br /><br />PS. See rebuttal #3.


created: 2005-01-01 16:16:01
subject: <b>Just some comments</b>
body:
I agree with some comments here that outcome of the Age is dependent on outcome of the previous Age. Thus you can't simply multiply probabilities. It doesn't work that way, PhD you or not.<br /><br />&quot;2. The same arguement proves the light can't win<br />Actually it doesn't. There is a crucial difference: the Dark One has failed to acheive total victory, the light has never yet failed to continue the wheel. Therefore, it is possible (in fact what I prove) that the wheel continues with certainty 1.&quot;<br /><br />It's contradicts your own theory. You stated that &quot;Now, suppose that the Dark One had even a tiny chance of winning. Let's call this probability p where p must be &gt; 0. (1-p) is the chance that the Dark One loses&quot; <br /><br />That means chances of Light winning is (1 - p), or another words - less than 1. Or another words it has ZERO chances of winining infinite number of times.<br /><br />&quot;3. You always lose after an infinite number of trials<br />Not if the probability of success is 1&quot;. <br /><br />As it was stated by someone, probability of success is not 1 in any of the cases your theory touches. So what's your point?<br /><br />&quot;That said, I am a PhD student with an honours BSc degree in mathematics. So, please don't attack my arguement with an appeal to authority.&quot;<br /><br />Hohoho. I would call the university who issued PhD here and ask them first...


created: 2005-01-01 19:47:18
subject: <b>Re: Just some comments</b>
body:
&gt; I agree with some comments here that outcome of the Age is<br />&gt; dependent on outcome of the previous Age. Thus you can't <br />&gt; simply multiply probabilities.<br /><br />I never claimed that you could simply multiply probabilities in that case. What I did claim is that a more complicated (and different) proof of the same result can be constructed in the not independent trials case. See my comments to a dragonburned fool.<br /><br />The 'multiplication of probabilities' in the original theory post was a simplification for presentation which I hoped would be more accessible. <br /><br />I have already conceded the point that independent trials are not realistic. However, I find it unlikely that more than perhaps a handful of people here would be able to follow a proof involving conditional probability and analysis... Therefore, I presented the simpler version which captures many of the key ideas. If enough people are interested, I could post the complete proof; however, this web-based forum does not have adaquate math markup---I would have to provide it as a postscript or pdf file. I am also not sure this is worth my time; I have real papers I should write. <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/wink.gif" border="0" /><br /><br />If you want to construct the complete proof for yourself, I can recommend to you several books which cover the material you would need... By the time you have read them, you will not need my help; the problem is really quite easy. I needed the additional assumption that the DO's chances over each turning are monotone &lt;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monotone&gt;.<br /><br />&gt; &quot;2. The same arguement proves the light can't win<br />&gt; Actually it doesn't. There is a crucial difference: the <br />&gt; Dark One has failed to acheive total victory, the light <br />&gt; has never yet failed to continue the wheel. Therefore, it <br />&gt; is possible (in fact what I prove) that the wheel <br />&gt; continues with certainty 1.&quot;<br />&gt; <br />&gt; It's contradicts your own theory. You stated that &quot;Now, <br />&gt; suppose that the Dark One had even a tiny chance of <br />&gt; winning. Let's call this probability p where p must be &gt; <br />&gt; 0. (1-p) is the chance that the Dark One loses&quot;<br />&gt; <br />&gt; That means chances of Light winning is (1 - p), or another <br />&gt; words - less than 1. Or another words it has ZERO chances <br />&gt; of winining infinite number of times.<br /><br />The type of arguement I was presenting is called a 'proof by contradiction'. In such an arguement you make an assumption which you later show leads to a contradiction. Therefore, that assumption is wrong and you have proven the opposite.<br /><br />I assumed the light had a possibility of loosing in order to show that this was impossible. Therefore, I do not exclude the situation where p=0. Indeed, my proof shows this must be the case. Therefore, the probability of the wheel continuing to turn is exactly 1-0=1.<br /><br />I refer you to this page for an introduction to this type of arguement:<br />&lt;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proof_by_contradiction&gt;<br />The section starting 'In mathematics' describes what I mean. For a more thorough introduction, I recommend an introductory text book on mathematical logic or reasoning.<br /><br />&gt; &quot;3. You always lose after an infinite number of trials<br />&gt; Not if the probability of success is 1&quot;.<br />&gt; <br />&gt; As it was stated by someone, probability of success is not<br />&gt; 1 in any of the cases your theory touches. So what's your <br />&gt; point?<br /><br />As I hope you now understand, the <i>whole point</i> of my theory was to show p=0 and therefore the wheel continuing to turn has exactly probability 1. That's why the title was, &quot;The Dark One can't win: a proof&quot;. The proof shows an absolute, not 99.99999% certainty, 100%.<br /><br />Therefore, you do not lose after an infinite number of trials. 1^p is always 1, no matter what value of p you pick, even if you let it tend to infinity.<br /><br />&gt; &quot;That said, I am a PhD student with an honours BSc degree <br />&gt; in mathematics. So, please don't attack my arguement with <br />&gt; an appeal to authority.&quot;<br />&gt; <br />&gt; Hohoho. I would call the university who issued PhD here <br />&gt; and ask them first...<br /><br />I said I am a PhD student; it would be illegal for me to claim I have a PhD yet. Just to clarify.<br /><br />I was objecting to someone throwing out my arguementation because they claimed to be a mathematician and know enough to warn others from thinking for themselves. I am not suggesting that you not think about my arguement for yourself or believe me on faith. Rather, I do not want you to take the word of this 'mathematician' on faith.


created: 2005-01-01 23:51:17
subject: <b>Continue with comments</b>
body:
I don't need to read some of your books to understand probabilitites. I've read my own enough to understand a flaw in your logic.<br /><br />First flaw is that you presented flipped coins probabilities to explain something complex as turning of Ages and Dark vs Light fight and chances of success. You called it &quot;simplification for presentation &quot;. But that just shows that your model is wrong. <br /><br />Second flaw, you assumed you can simply multiply probabilities. At least now you're saying that it's more complex than that. But you failed to provide any mathematical hint or proof how it's more complex or why (I know that, but you had to explain to the readers) <br /><br />Third, you failed to provide any proof that chances of DO winning in any Age are independent from each other. In the contrary, you used &quot;independence&quot; as key stone of your theory. <br /><br />&quot;Indeed, my proof shows this must be the case. Therefore, the probability of the wheel continuing to turn is exactly 1-0=1.&quot;<br />Fourth, the fact that DO has never won before is not a proof of him not having chance of winning. I've never won a lottery, but that doesn't mean I can't win it.<br /><br />And so on.. I can continue if you'd like. I have MS in math and can go on for days if you'd like.<br /><br />I want you to understand that there are several key steps to prove something in theory of probabilities. One of them is to show what is probability of one experiment; then to prove that experiments are dependent, then you can calculate the total probability based on formula. If experiments are independent then you can simply add one to each other. But in that case probability will not go to zero with infinite number of tries. So forth and so on...<br /><br />If you wanted a &quot;simplification&quot; you had to take a lottery example. Chances to win each time is slim. I never met a person in my life who won a lottery, but I heard about that. Using your &quot;theory&quot; does it mean I will have zero chances to win if I would play each time? <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/wink.gif" border="0" /> Of course not. <br /><br /><br />Just to summarize and I'm off:<br />1) sometime probabilities of independent but similar events could be added to each other to calculate the total. Total probability will never be zero in the case, when at least one is not zero. Example, lottery. In that case, you are not calculating probability of all events. Here we do not care about two events (or any other number of events), or that they follow each other, or that they several of them must happen, or anything else. Another example, shooting target. If first gunner has probability P1, second P2, then probability of target being hit is P1 + P2. <br /><br />2) total probability of independent events is multiplication of probabilities of each of them. For example, dice. The formula for that event is 1/n, where n is number of possible combinations. In our case n=6 (in case of coins n=2). The probability of rolling one, and then one again is 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36 (No wonder Mat is so lucky!!!)<br /><br />3) total probability of dependent events is more complex. It's also multiplication, but absolute probability of first event and relative probabilities of others. (I don't know the exact wording in English about this, sorry..)<br /><br />There are lot more about this, but I'm sure chances of DO winning is not calculated by #2. It well may be #1, like winning lottery, but I myself think that it's complex formula #3. And it's not zero. <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/wink.gif" border="0" /><br /><br />


created: 2005-01-01 23:58:59
subject: <b>Correction</b>
body:
Please read as:<br /><br />&quot;I want you to understand that there are several key steps to prove something in theory of probabilities. One of them is to show what is probability of one experiment; then to prove that experiments are dependent, then you can calculate the total probability based on THEIR formulas. If experiments are independent then you MAY simply add one to each other. But in that case probability will not go to zero with infinite number of tries. So forth and so on...<br />&quot;


created: 2005-01-02 23:33:50
subject: <b>HUH????</b>
body:
I barely passed algebra.  My comprehension sucks and logic is only understandable when uttered by Spock.  So in laymans language does Rand win or does he not?<br /><br />I suck at grammar too.  But I'm addicted to WOT so what can I say.


created: 2005-01-03 23:14:46
subject: <b>I had a theory posted much like this one</b>
body:
I however assumed that the wheel hadn't turned forever (it had a starting point) but that it would continue to turn forever. Assuming that the Creater created a world not doomed to the DO in the long term I decided 1 of 3 things must occur.<br /><br />1) The DO has no chance of getting out, he only tries to make the lives of the people in &quot;Randland&quot; as miserable as possible, I decided this was unlikely since it kinds of makes everything pointless.<br /><br />2) The Dragon has a probability of eliminating the DO for all time (who knows how). thus the probabilty does not -&gt; infinity because there could be a finite number of tries.<br /><br />3) The probability is not a constant. Take for example the infinate sum 1/4+1/8 +1/16 etc. Even as this sum approaches an infinite number of terms the sum is still &lt;1 (in this case 1/2). Obviously this could apply to multiplication and thus probabilty as well. As long as the probabilty of the DO escaping was decreasing at a quick enough rate, the probabilty of the DO escaping even over an infinite amount of time is still less than 100%.


created: 2005-01-05 11:11:28
subject: <b>Nice job</b>
body:
I am jumping into this thread late because of holiday travel.  I just wanted to congratulate you on an excellent posting.  Although not a formal student of mathematics, I derive a somewhat (I imagine) unhealthy pleasure from applying math to the world of WOT.  Granted, at some point it breaks down, but hey, we're all having fun, right?<br /><br />That being said, I don't understand the vitriol that I've witnessed greeting mathematically-based theories posted to this site.  For whatever reason, we bunch of geeks really get our panties in a bunch when equations and numbers are used instead of just quotations and RJ interviews.  It's just strange.<br /><br />I voted yes, but ultimately I disagree with this theory.  My problem is not with your math.  As I imagine you felt when drafting this theory, it is somewhat tongue-in-cheek.  RJ can do whatever he wants and doesn't have to abide by any real world rules governing probability.  So yeah, you're right.  But reading about TG where the DO has no chance of winning would be fantastically lame.  <br /><br />Personally, I am continually amused at the way we WOTers come up with far-fetched explanations for what are, in all likelihood, just simple oversights and inconsistencies in the story and the mechanics of the OP, etc.  (For an example, see the recent MB post on Traveling involving Time Travel -- sorry, I'm not sophisticated enough to include the link.)<br /><br />Anyway, great job.  It was a fun read and an enjoyable exercise.<br /><br />Cheers.<br /><br /><br />TFK


created: 2005-01-09 20:40:11
subject: <b>Mathematical mistakes</b>
body:
I'm sorry if I am repeating someone else's comments, but there is a major fault in your theory. (I did not have the patience to read through all of the comments)<br /><br />You assume that the probability is the same at every turning. It is made quite clear in the books that it is the pattern itself which does not change dramatically, not the actual events themselves.<br /><br />As proof, consider the memories of the wolves. They remember that it was a long, long time ago that there were wolfbrothers (like Perrin), and that it has come back again. They remember that the last time there were wolfbrothers was so long ago that even for wolves it is a faint memory. Therefore the last turning of the third age couldn't have had wolfbrothers unless there were hundreds of ages.<br /><br />Since the probability could be different each turning, your theory fails, as there could be only a finite number of times that the probability that the DO breaks free is nonzero.<br /><br />Also, probability does not apply easily to infinities. Conceptually, even an impossible event could happen in an infinite amount of time.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">Asmodean is alive and posing as Sammael!<br /><br />Sammael <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/sammy.gif" border="0" /> is Sparticus.<br /><br />No, I'm Sparticus! <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/biggrin.gif" border="0" /><br /><br /><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/jordan.gif" border="0" /> = <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/moiraine.gif" border="0" /><br /><br />I'm Herid Fel Reborn!!!!! <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/shy.gif" border="0" /></font><p></p>


created: 2005-01-14 11:03:34
subject: <b>This isn't new</b>
body:
Thoughts like this have arisen before:<br /><br />&lt;http://groups-beta.google.com/group/rec.arts.sf.written.robert-jordan/browse_frm/thread/da24b34913387c4/825c4f084113f2a5?q=%22The+dark+one+will+win%22&amp;_done=%2Fgroup%2Frec.arts.sf.written.robert-jordan%2Fsearch%3Fgroup%3Drec.arts.sf.written.robert-jordan%26q%3D%22The+dark+one+will+win%22%26qt_g%3D1%26&amp;_doneTitle=Back+to+Search&amp;&amp;d#825c4f084113f2a5&gt;<br /><br />with some different premises though.


created: 2005-01-16 14:32:16
subject: <b>except...</b>
body:
The problem with this theory is that The Dragon and the Dark One have only met once. Prior to the Age of Legends, the Dark One, who was sealed away at the moment of creation, was bound in Shayol Ghul and it was only research (possibly/probably led by Mierin/Lanfear) which resulted in a bore being drilled in the Dark Ones prison and so giving him a chance to exert a greater influence.


created: 2005-03-06 16:41:17
subject: <b>simpler proof</b>
body:
at the beginning/end of the books u c that there r writings from the fourth age, well how can they b there if the dark one wins in which case there wouldnt b a fourth age or at least every1 would b slaves


created: 2005-07-06 23:55:29
subject: <b>...</b>
body:
My head just exploded.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">Snow <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/darkone.gif" border="0" /><br /><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/madmyrddraal.gif" border="0" /> <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/myrddraal.gif" border="0" /> <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/madmyrddraal.gif" border="0" /> <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/myrddraal.gif" border="0" /> <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/madmyrddraal.gif" border="0" /></font><p></p>


created: 2005-07-23 21:01:30
subject: <b>Hello, Anybody else thinking?</b>
body:
Ignore this if its already been posted.<br /><br />The Creator and the DO are Outside the Pattern. So, you cannot apply logic or math to the DO unless he breaks free, which means you have already been screwed.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">The Great Gonzales<br />Captain of the DF Rebellion against Moridin<br />Demandred for Nae'blis!</font><p></p>


created: 2005-08-05 11:16:53
subject: <b>general agreement</b>
body:
mathematically speaking, your proof is sound and absolutely correct, IMO. however, wouldnt the dark one's &quot;small&quot; victory be just as bad an ending for the books as his complete one? we would have the same feeling of loss and pointlessness that evil had triumphed (i actually prefer unhappy endings, but still).<br /><br />the statement &quot;the dark one has won a small victory peviously&quot; is consistent with what we see in the &quot;present&quot; of the wheel of time. although i know you set out to proove that the dark one has no chance of ultimate victory, if you pply the proof to a &quot;small&quot; victory, there is no error in the statement &quot;the dark one has a chance of victory&quot;


created: 2005-08-25 14:57:42
subject: <b>What we're all forgetting is Douglas Adam's theory...</b>
body:
... that if the meaning of the universe is ever learned it will be instantly replaced by something even more confusing...<br /><br />okay doesn't apply directly, but it did inspire this line of thought.<br /><br />1- a complete victory by the dark one means the wheel is broken, and eventually 'everything' ceases to exist, presumably eventually even time and the dark one himself, as he was allegedly also a product of the Creator.<br /><br />2- end result = nothing.<br /><br />3- enter the Creator, who by definition creates something where there was once nothing (or brings order where there is chaos, however you like to look at it)<br /><br />4- The wheel, pattern and whole shebang are created again, and set back in motion (presumably with new souls, perhaps recycled from the remants of the old ones at some cosmic 'soul recycling depot' where you can get 5 to 25 cents per old soul you bring in, depending on how important they were).<br /><br />And Tada!! The wheel and pattern we are currently reading about does have a finite lifespan from its creation, meaning p can be &gt;0, but the wheel is still mathematically intact, and someday before infinity arrives the DO will win again, yet...<br /><br />The actual cycle of creation and destruction of the wheel has continued and will continue for ever, meaning the Wheel of Time really is without beginnning or end, but don't relax too much cuz the Great Lord can still go postal on all your asses, and the Creator will not be happy about having to clean up that mess yet again. It's a wheel within a wheel - how Jordanesque. And don't ask what's beyond THAT wheel of creation, cuz I'll just say it's turtles all the way down (if that doesn't sound familiar then you haven't read enough opinions about the nature of infinity and the universe)<br /><br />So with a wave of my 'untenable yet not disprovable theory wand' all that icky calculus and paradox disappears, and everyone can be right. No need to thank me.<br /><br /><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/smile.gif" border="0" /><br />TforT<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">&quot;Psst! Over here! I'm a friend!&quot;<br />&quot;Anyone's friend in particular, or just generally well disposed to humanity?&quot; - Ford continues running for his life.<br />- Douglas Adams, One of the Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy books.</font><p></p>


created: 2007-09-04 16:53:50
subject: <b>2 fatal assumptions</b>
body:
1) Is that the Wheel has indeed been turning infinitely before.<br /><br />If that is the case, the theory is indeed perfectly correct and easy to derive.<br /><br />HOWEVER, RJ has never written from a perspective that is outside of the grindhouse cum prison that is the Wheel of Time. That there are 'neither beginnings nor endings to the turning of the Wheel' is simply a catechismic assumption made by Randlander's who do not, and cannot, know whether the turnings have in fact happened infinitely.<br /><br />If it's the case that there were finite turnings, no matter how large, that doesn't rule out the possibility of the DO's victory, no matter how improbable in any one turning, but in the end inevitable.<br /><br />2) He might well have won before, but was unable/unwilling to break the Wheel when he did. We have no way of knowing what the DO will actually do if he wins. Maybe he swaps places with the Creator (becoming non-interventionist) and unleashes a Dark Age. Perhaps he rules on Earth until a group of heroes band together and manage to reimprison him somehow. He need not be omnipotent even when free. Etc.


created: 2008-05-06 13:43:32
subject: <b>god's will</b>
body:
if everything that happens is god's will, or fate dictated by the turning of the wheel...or chaos theory, then the dark one coming into the world was necessary. we brought him into the world so there'd be two sides to fight the third, and it was power worship (an immense source of energy is why the drilled the bore) or corruption that led to him being brought into this world. once we realize that, then we realize that the dark one is just a tool of the creator. it's the third side, the corruption of machin shin, the taint, and shaddar logoth that the dark one was brought into the world to fight. or was brought into the world by the corruption itself. a paradox, and a self-fullfilling prophecy.<br />paradoxes drive the universe


created: 2005-01-02 10:52:21
subject: <b>Some comments</b>
body:
According to RJ, Rand is mainly based on King Arthur and Tyr, while Perrin is rather Thor.<br /><br />I think the tail biting serpent in WoT is based on old religious symbols in our world, not the Midgard Serpent (which is rather a demon, as you say).<br />Like the Wheel, the Great Serpent stands for eternity, and thus is neutral not evil. <br /><br />Furthermore, note that the Creator imprisoned the DO outside the pattern. He didn't want him to meddle with his Creation.<br />However, mankind also got a free will which allowed them to drill the Bore.<br /><br />Finally, in which language does &quot;Rand&quot; mean &quot;a strip of cloth or leather used to support the shoe at the heel&quot;? <br />In German &quot;Rand&quot; means &quot;edge&quot; for example...<br /><br />All in all, I can't follow your logic. <br />To break the Wheel of Time (i.e. destroy existence) is the DO's aim, not Rand's.<br />We also see that Rand will defeat the DO, but not destroy the world, since there are 4th Age texts in the books which praise the Dragon.<br />


created: 2005-01-02 13:58:32
subject: <b>Well</b>
body:
Destroying the wheel wouldn't neccessarily destroy the world.  Rand could free the world from the wheel of time, and thus destroy the endless cycle in which the Dark One constantly threatens the world.  Seems like a complete victory of the light to me.  This just occurs to me now, but it could be that while the Great Serpent live, neither side can win.  If Rand destroyed it, then the DO will be bound outside of time for eternity, because there will never be another age.  It would probably also bring an end to the one power and basically everything that causes Randland to differ from our own.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">One day I'll have a quote to put you all to shame.</font><p></p>


created: 2005-01-02 15:42:01
subject: <b>You stole the idea!!!</b>
body:
It was in the Ishamael's speeches in the Hall, procaliming the Dark One! You stole it!!! <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/wink.gif" border="0" />


created: 2005-01-02 16:30:05
subject: <b>Yes ! Down with the Wheel! Down with fate!</b>
body:
We are the masters of our own destiny!<br /><br />The very principle of the Wheel of Time undermines free will. The pattern wants the Dark One free every first age. It also wants him bound again in ( presumably ) the Third Age.<br /><br />As long as the Wheel exists, there is status quo. Shai'tan figured this out spinnings ago, if he can't break the Wheel and blind the Eye of the World, he can never be free.<br /><br />If Rand does not kill the Great Serpent, all he can do is banish Shai'tan for a while. Sure, 5 Ages is a long time in a human lifespan, but in the context of endless spinnings of the Wheel, the Lord of the Grave will be back before we know it.<br /><br />The Wheel of Time is like getting the last pages ripped out of a book you're reading, having the music you're listening to jump back to the bginning before the last part.<br /><br />If only Rand and Ishamael were to unite instead of fighting each other blindly, playing the Creator's twisted game! No wonder RJ is afraid to have tea with one of his characters - they'd tear him to shreds for the fate they have to look up to!<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1"><i>War must be, while we defend our lives against a destroyer who would devour all; but I do not love the bright sword for its sharpness, nor the arrow for its swiftness, nor the warrior for his glory. I love only that which they defend</i><br />~Faramir</font><p></p>


created: 2005-01-03 05:28:38
subject: <b>Actually,</b>
body:
I had wondered why the Creator would allow for a thinning in the first place. I mean, RJ needs it for the story, but I still wonder.<br /><br />And no, I don't think Rand will break the wheel. One, it goes against RJ's style as I see it. Two, Rand is the support, a part of the programming. If he was programmed to break the wheel, he would have done so within the first turning, since the wheel repeats itself.<br /><br />Fun ideas, though.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">Bob L. Sedai (a.k.a. Luge) <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/pharoah.gif" border="0" /><br />Fighting off the Taint - <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/rant.gif" border="0" /> <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/tinfoilhat.gif" border="0" /> <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/rant.gif" border="0" /><br /><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/read.gif" border="0" />Thanks given to Burr, the ever-helpful theory critic<img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/read.gif" border="0" /><br /><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/whitecloak.gif" border="0" />And to Light in the Night, fellow theorist extraordinaire<img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/whitecloak.gif" border="0" /><br /><br />Voted Best Screenname 1 (one) years in a row.</font><p></p>


created: 2005-01-03 13:32:11
subject: <b>Rand and <i>ta'veren</i></b>
body:
Rand figured out long ago that he had to submit to the apttern to be able to control it. Maybe that's how he learned to handle <i>Saidar</i> so quickly. Anyway, he may have been pushing the pattern slightly in that direction, in order to make it possible.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1"><i>War must be, while we defend our lives against a destroyer who would devour all; but I do not love the bright sword for its sharpness, nor the arrow for its swiftness, nor the warrior for his glory. I love only that which they defend</i><br />~Faramir</font><p></p>


created: 2005-01-05 09:23:30
subject: <b>I've always liked bobsledai's theories</b>
body:
They are good food for thought, and some of my personal favorites. <br /><br />If I follow you correctly, to make the prison whole again, the cycle has to be broken by breaking the Wheel? If that's the case, then the DO would be free and win unless/until the Creator steps in. <br /><br />The Creator said he refuses to take a hand in these matters, and is the only one with the Power to remake the Wheel. Of course this might be a way to force his hand and make him act. <br /><br />I don't fully agree that this is how it will happen, but it is an interesting solution, nonetheless.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">Where once was Shadow<br /> Now reigns <b>Light</b><br /> Darkness fades<br /> <b>In</b>to <b>the Night</b><br /><br />Wotmania's Theory Post has the most!<br />Submit one of your own today <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/jordan.gif" border="0" /><br /><br />Wotmania's richest Wotmaniac!</font><p></p>


created: 2005-01-05 11:49:43
subject: <b>But what does 'Satan' mean?</b>
body:
'Shaitan is Arabic for Satan' is like saying Jean is French for Jokannon (which is Hebrew for 'God is gracious').<br /><br />So, what does &quot;Satan&quot; mean?  It's probably Aramaic, right?<br /><br />Googling....<br /><br />Nope, it's Hebrew and it simply means 'adversary.'  I know 'devil' comes from 'diabolos' which is greek for liar or enemy.<br /><br />I realize this adds little or nothing.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">John B. Towers<br />Attorney, Reader &amp; Occasional Decent Human Being<br /><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/bandredhand.gif" border="0" /></font><p></p>


created: 2005-01-09 22:21:54
subject: <b>reptile</b>
body:
I voted yes because I thibk it needed to be said.<br /><br />Actually I'm not totaly convinced.  The WOT might be broken in the last battle, but the &quot;How can the Creator create the DO unless he is evil&quot; doesn't work for me.  The same thing has often been said as a criticism of the Late (ca 500BC to 140AD)Jewish/Christian/Islamic theological world views.  If God is perfect goodness, how did evil come into the world?<br /><br />I offer no answers.  Actually, I'm told that it was the Persian wise men/theologans that answered this question by ccreating a radical dualism that contained good and evil in their own separate and continually warring realms. These views survive in the contemporary Parsi religion that still is practiced in parts of Iran and Bombay, India, and perhaps elsewhere.  Some of these concepts entered Judaism no later than the conquest of Babylon by Cyrus the Great (founding the Persian Empire) and the freeing of the Jews from the Babylonian Captivity sometime in the mid 6th century BC.<br /><br />I'm not sure if the good half of this equation equaled &quot;The Creator&quot; though.  <br /><br />So your question is a good one; it just doesn't feel right (like Jordan, that is) in this context.  Break the wheel, maybe.  But the creator = evil just doesn't sound right.  Jrdan wouldn't feel comfortable with this sort of ultimate moral ambiguity.  And while no philosopher myself, I think the ultimate problem as it relates to evil and cretion might lie in the way the question is posed.


created: 2005-01-12 20:11:22
subject: <b>Thinning of the bore</b>
body:
the reason the creator made a thin part in the bore in the first place was to give humanity a choice in what they wanted to do... let evil into the world or keep it out.<br /><br />ps. Satan is a biblical name given to the original deciever of mankind<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1"><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/rant.gif" border="0" /><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/rant.gif" border="0" /><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/rant.gif" border="0" /><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/rant.gif" border="0" /><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/rant.gif" border="0" /><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/rant.gif" border="0" /><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/rant.gif" border="0" /><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/rant.gif" border="0" /></font><p></p>


created: 2007-12-25 07:58:03
subject: <b>Agreed.</b>
body:
I agree with this theory.<br /><br />Theres that thing an Aiel says in tEotW:<br />&quot;Leafblighter means to blind the Eye of the World, Lost One. He means to slay the Great Serpent. Warn the People, Lost One.&quot;<br /><br />The DO is on to the idea that the wheel is just going to spin around and lock him up again. So he needs to break it to stay free.<br /><br />Similarly, Rand could break it to avoid it cycling back to the  DO getting freed. Although, if the DO is still freed, then he won't get cycled back in.<br /><br />I guess a chance that things will go well is better than the risk of infinite cycles until the DO manages to break the wheel in his favor.


created: 2008-06-22 22:55:55
subject: <b>creator doesn't=evil</b>
body:
not at all what the person who wrote this theory was saying (i believe) was that the creator wasn't good but he wasn't exactly evil either he just didn't care<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">I may be crazy but im still more---- OHH SHINY PENNY!<img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/banana.gif" border="0" /><br /><br />Fear the ninja smiley<img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/ninja.gif" border="0" /><br /><br />ohhh pretty fire..Most not touch....OUCH IT BURNS!<img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/flamingsword.gif" border="0" /></font><p></p>


created: 2005-01-03 03:49:05
subject: <b>Yes...</b>
body:
I also tend to believe that Taim acts quite independent, or is at least more likely under Moridin's control (since I also believe Ishy trained Taim in the past), but not Demandred's proxy, like e.g. Masema IMO.<br /><br />RJ answered to the question why Taim came to Dumai's Wells, that Taim is simply paranoid and found out about the capture in Cairhien.<br />This implies that Taim wasn't sent or informed by a Forsaken.  <br /><br />Another point against the idea that Taim is Demandred's proxy are in my view the different orders for the DF Asha'man. <br /><br />Kisman recalls in WH, ch.22:<br />&quot;'Kill him,' the M'Hael had ordered before sending them to<br />Cairhien, but he had been as displeased that they were found out as that they had failed. Far Madding was to be their last chance; [...]'Kill him,' Demandred had commanded later, but he had added that it would be better they died than let themselves be discovered again. By anyone, even the M'Hael, as if he did not know of Taim's order.&quot;<br /><br />If Taim were a proxy under Demandred's thumb, Demandred shouldn't be concerned if Taim learns his orders, or he could order Taim himself to kill Rand.<br /><br />Of course you second argument is irrelevant, if Taim didn't kill Asmo, but e.g. Slayer was the killer, as I believe...


created: 2005-01-03 09:10:17
subject: <b>Not convincing evidence to me</b>
body:
If Taim hadn't showed up to help rescue Rand at Dumai Wells, Sevanna would have ended up in control of Rand. If you recall, Sammael had been dealing with Sevanna, and promised her a device by which to control him. So, Demandred would have the perfect reason to send Taim: to help keep Rand from falling under Sammael and Sevanna's control. Controlling the Dragon Reborn was the whole point in the first place, and the Demandred, Mesaana, Semirhage alliance would rather he be free than under a rival's thumb.<br /><br />And as Etzel stated, the second part of your reasoning only applies if Taim was the one that killed Asmo, so it's pretty much irrelevant otherwise.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">Where once was Shadow<br /> Now reigns <b>Light</b><br /> Darkness fades<br /> <b>In</b>to <b>the Night</b><br /><br />Wotmania's Theory Post has the most!<br />Submit one of your own today <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/jordan.gif" border="0" /><br /><br />Wotmania's richest Wotmaniac!</font><p></p>


created: 2005-01-04 02:59:06
subject: <b>Taim's actions</b>
body:
When Taim and the Asha'man arrived, who did they attack first?  The Aes Sedai who are Mesaana's followers (and thus Demandred's allies by their pact) or the Shaido (Sevanna's/Sammael's crew)?  The Aes Sedai, of course, capturing and shielding all of them, before even attacking the Shaido, which they only did on Rand's order.  If Taim was working with Demandred/Mesaana, he could have made sure the Aes Sedai still controlled Rand while taking care of keeping the Shaido at bay and even dispersing them.  And Rand didn't have to be the wiser, he could have been knocked out by anyone before feeling saidin channeled in the vicinity.  He made sure Rand was in noone's hands, Mesaana or Sammael.


created: 2005-01-04 03:37:01
subject: <b>I agree</b>
body:
I've always had problems with the minion Taim theory.  Taim's very strong, almost as strong as Rand (so Rand thinks at one time), so without wanting to start a relative strength debate, I reckon Taim could take on Demandred himself.  So if there's no fear factor, why bother?  He's ambitious, much better to trundle down to Shayol Ghul himself, and chat to the DO about becoming a new dreadlord if he's into the dark way of thinking.<br /><br />My biggest sticking point has always been Taim's use of the phrase &quot;so called Aiel&quot;.  The Forsaken aren't that forthcoming with their AoL knowledge, and Taim doesn't seem the sucking up sort to just copy a phrase like that, so where did he learn that attitude?<br /><br />I&#8217;ve been wondering if maybe Rand&#8217;s not the only male channeller with a past personality talking to him.  This would explain Cadsuane knowing about hearing voices (because she&#8217;s come across it before, probably without understanding it) and it could mean that Taim has not only got some old-tongue speaking past life in his head, but that he&#8217;s actually allowed that past personality to take him over like LTT has tried to do with Rand.  This gives him his channelling and old-tongue knowledge in a way that fits better with his personality than the minion theory.<br /><br />One aspect about Taim where both theories fall down is why didn&#8217;t he already know Travelling?  Although he did pick it up awfully quick, so maybe he had reason to hide his knowledge previously.  Or maybe the AoL personality take-over isn&#8217;t quite complete, so it was more like a reminder, the sort Rand got from Asmo.<br /><br />Some final related thoughts:<br /><br />Maybe the strength of the voice coming through has to do with increasing strength in the power.  This could be why LTT didn&#8217;t show up till later books, and has why Taim could channel for several years before going on his rampage in Saldea.  Also why the black novices don&#8217;t instantly think they&#8217;ve gone mad instantly.<br /><br />Quite a few of the ashaman tend to have cock their head and appear to be listening to something no one else can hear (the two with Perrin for example).  Probably no one wants to mention this for fear of getting a little something slipped in their drink.<br /><br />Maybe the split personality helped against the taint, as Taim has survived all these years, and Rand hasn&#8217;t shown any other (besides the voice) serious signs of going mad.<br />


created: 2005-01-04 03:42:09
subject: <b>and oh yeah, I forgot</b>
body:
I think Graendal killed Asmo - she would have been in the right spot watching Rahvin's demise so she could scavenge the left overs for objects of power, exactly like she was in Illian for Sammael's demise.  Asmo would have just stumbled in on her little treasure hunt. I think her POV even says somewhere how she was dissapointed in Rahvin's stash, compared to Sammy's, which, by the way, is where she got the little gold ring angreal, which for reasons unknown Nynaeve found herself looking at puzzled on her little finger in TaR when Egwene mentioned Sharina and she had those flashbacks to her testing ter'angreal.<br /><br />Sorry for being so off topic!


created: 2005-01-04 04:57:08
subject: <b>Rand took care of half of the Aes Sedai by himself....</b>
body:
He was taking them down one-by-one, with no one in a black coat to be seen for quite some time. After the battle he counts 23 of them altogether: <br />&quot;<i>Nearly a dozen Aes Sedai were being shielded by an equal number of Asha'man wearing sword and dragon. The Aes Sedai looked sick and frightened. Rand recognized three, though Nesune was the only one he could name. He did not recognize any of their Asha'man jailers. A number of the women Rand had shielded and rendered unconscious were laid out with those prisoners, some of them beginning to stir, while black-coated soldiers and Dedicated with the silver sword on their collars were using saidin to drag others across the ground and lay them in that row. Some of them brought the two unconscious Aes Sedai and the angular woman out of the copse; she was still screaming</i>.&quot;<br /><br />The best I can tell, Rand took down about a dozen by himself, shielding and knocking them out. The ones that were  being dragged were probably all his doing, since there is no mention of them being shielded by the soldiers and Dedicated, and they were unconscious. The &quot;nearly a dozen&quot; were the ones that the Asha'man accounted for. <br /><br />Perrin is witness to a gateway opening up into the midst of the fighting with the Shaido Aiel and sees the first to step through speared in the stomach and then another 8 or 9 follow him out into the war zone to battle the Aiel. This is right after the &quot;boom&quot; of Rand's box exploding open, and he thought he saw another circle of Asha'man nearby as well. <br /><br />Of course it's really a matter of who you think Taim was rescuing Rand from. The sheer number of Shaido Wise Ones and Aiel warriors far outweighed the forces of the Tower Aes Sedai, Warders and Younglings. It would only have been a matter of time before Sevanna's Aiel overwhelmed them. <br /><br />It is also possible that Taim was just working towards his own ends and not following anyone's orders to help out. Heck, he might have been a good guy trying to save the Dragon Reborn and the world at that point in time. <br /><br />I was simply pointing out what I considered a flaw in your reasoning. Just so you'll know, I'm not convinced that Taim is Demandred's proxy, either. There has been enough conflicting evidence to say otherwise, or to at least make it questionable. Better evidence that might have supported your idea would be the dual orders the Ash'man received to kill Rand in WH, that apparently excluded Taim's knowledge of Demandred's orders.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">Where once was Shadow<br /> Now reigns <b>Light</b><br /> Darkness fades<br /> <b>In</b>to <b>the Night</b><br /><br />Wotmania's Theory Post has the most!<br />Submit one of your own today <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/jordan.gif" border="0" /><br /><br />Wotmania's richest Wotmaniac!</font><p></p>


created: 2005-01-04 16:43:22
subject: <b>Did Taim know about the Aiel?</b>
body:
When Taim departed via travelling to rescue Rand, it is highly likely he didn't know about the Aiel attack at all, and it was just happenstance he arrived when the Shaido were attacking.  He really was there to take care of the threat he knew about, the Aes Sedai who originally kidnapped him.


created: 2005-01-14 17:42:07
subject: <b>The voices</b>
body:
I should start by saying I am agnostic on the issue of proxy Taim.  I'm just floating a thought put into my head by demarre's excellent posting above.  Her relevant comments are:<br /><br /><i>I&#8217;ve been wondering if maybe Rand&#8217;s not the only male channeller with a past personality talking to him. This would explain Cadsuane knowing about hearing voices (because she&#8217;s come across it before, probably without understanding it) and it could mean that Taim has not only got some old-tongue speaking past life in his head, but that he&#8217;s actually allowed that past personality to take him over like LTT has tried to do with Rand. This gives him his channelling and old-tongue knowledge in a way that fits better with his personality than the minion theory.<br />...<br />Maybe the strength of the voice coming through has to do with increasing strength in the power. This could be why LTT didn&#8217;t show up till later books, and has why Taim could channel for several years before going on his rampage in Saldea. Also why the black novices don&#8217;t instantly think they&#8217;ve gone mad instantly.<br /><br />Quite a few of the ashaman tend to have cock their head and appear to be listening to something no one else can hear (the two with Perrin for example).</i><br /><br />I'm not convinced by this idea of mass reincarnation. Yes, I know various Theories hold that Taim is a reincarnation of Lanfear's partner-in-Bore (sorry, can't remember his name) and perhaps that one or two others might be reincarnations too, but mass reincarnation for all male channellers, with never a suggestion of the same for female channellers?  I think it's unlikely.<br /><br />One other place that voices are heard is in Machin Shin in the Ways (e.g. just before the gang emerge from the Ways at Fal Dara in tEotW, and at Cairhein in tGH).  Perhaps voices (I'm not talking about LTT here, just &quot;voices&quot; heard in general) are to do with the taint on Saidin, rather than rebirth, and need not be felt by channellers necessarily but by anyone who comes into contact with that taint.  This would explain why only male channellers can hear them normally, but anyone can who travels the Ways and comes across Machin Shin.


created: 2005-01-15 21:31:52
subject: <b>Jordanian</b>
body:
Mass reincarnation is a fact in WoT. Everyone, channellers and nonchannellers of both sexes, is reincarnated endlessly. The difference lies in male channellers being affected by the taint, as you said. I believe that it is feasible for the voices to be previous incarnations that male channellers can hear due to the taint. You fail to explain how Rand and Taim gained knowledge from the AOL if the voices aren't from previous incarnations, are are in fact the completely uninformative rambling uttered by Machin Shin.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">Who can deny a Fremen the right to walk or ride where he wills?<br />      -Dune<br /><br /><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/jawa.gif" border="0" /></font><p></p>


created: 2005-01-19 16:02:56
subject: <b>While the theory is sound thinking...</b>
body:
I don't believe it's entirely accurate.  Taim acting to save Rand could entirely fall into place with his &quot;interpretation&quot; of Demandred's orders.  (Keep your friends close, and enemies should get closer! (my twist on the old saying)  If Taim is to be belived by Rand, he HAD to show up.  Yes, it puts a cramp on Mesaana's plans, but she already tweaked the DOs orders, which is why she was so nervous at the meeting.  She had given orders for him to be taken and brought to her, without filling Demandred and Semirhage in on the details (yet another reason for her to have not attended the required summoning to Shadar Logoth...she knew she would have to face Demandred if she did.)<br /><br />And another point:  the Chosen are NOT perfect, nor are they all knowing.  That long in a pact together, it is reasonable to assume that if Mesaana was going to break the alliance for her own ends, that she would use deceit to cover her tracks, and know EXACTLY how to lie to the other two in a way they would believe.  While I'll be the first to say I don't like the idea, I do have to admit that she pulled a fast one, and left Demandred in the dark (something that doesn't happen often, and yet he could very well have trusted their pact too much.) <br /><br />One thing no one has seen:  Semirhage's reaction to the whole thing.  She was not at Shadar Logoth (and I disagree with the idea that she's suffering the same trama as Mesaana: I think the DO made an exception on her part since she was ON A BOAT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE OCEAN!  A Gateway would have ripped a whole in the boat, and that would be the end of her whole cover with the Seanchan.  Just as with her sending the Trollocs to save Rand in Tear, Semirhage has always had &quot;other&quot; orders.), and she hasn't been seen since her last appearance as Anath.  Whether or not she thinks of the kidnapping as a betrayal or not has not been seen.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">Marigan<br />Near-sister to A_fan_of_Rolan_dcs<br /><br />Proxylocks <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/wink.gif" border="0" /><br /><br />Loyally Devoted to the great <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/flaminggrin.gif" border="0" /> &quot;Lord of Chaos&quot; <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/devil.gif" border="0" />, Demandred! <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/biggrin.gif" border="0" /><br /><br /></font><p></p>


created: 2005-01-25 06:29:25
subject: <b>marigan</b>
body:
<b> If Taim is to be belived by Rand, he HAD to show up. </b><br /><br />That's true, but it wouldn't really have mattered if Rand had been captured. With Rand out of the way he could possibly convince the Asha'man that he was the true DR.<br /><br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">'Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before,' Bokonon tells us. 'He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way.'</font><p></p>


created: 2005-01-29 21:25:19
subject: <b>Who says Mesaana wasn't counting on the rescue?</b>
body:
1) The fact that some Asha'man went after the Aes Sedai first doesn't prove anything.  No one is saying that _all_ of the Asha'man are darkfriends, just that Taim is.  Any non-darkfriend Asha'man would naturally go after the Aes Sedai and secure Rand before going after the Shaido--and Taim could not have prevented them from doing so without blowing his cover.<br /><br />2) Who says Mesaana wanted Rand to make it to Tar Valon?  That may have been Messy's original intention, but the Dark One's order to &quot;let the Lord of Chaos rule&quot; changed all of that.  It's entirely possible that Messy decided to cut her losses and assemble a new plan with Demandred's help--one in which the goal was not to capture Rand but to traumatize him and drive a wedge between him and the White Tower.


created: 2005-01-31 03:24:37
subject: <b>Shaido were working with Sammael</b>
body:
Mesaana didn't cause the Shaido to stop the Aes Sedai from taking Rand to Tar Valon, Sammael did.  If Mesaana wanted different from Galina and Katerine and the others, she would have sent new orders through the grapevine.


created: 2005-02-09 14:05:28
subject: <b>InsaneJawa</b>
body:
<i>Mass reincarnation is a fact in WoT. Everyone, channellers and nonchannellers of both sexes, is reincarnated endlessly.</i><br /><br />Sorry, I should have made clear I meant &quot;mass reincarnation leading to hearing past life voices&quot;, not &quot;mass reincarnation in general&quot; that I have a problem with. You are of course right that everyone is reincarnated. I'm afraid I disagree with you though regarding them hearing voices of their own past lives.<br /><br /><i>You fail to explain how Rand and Taim gained knowledge from the AOL if the voices aren't from previous incarnations</i><br /><br />Rand, as we know, is an exception - he is the Dragon Reborn after all, and it is a given that he at least <i>does</i> hear LTT as his previous incarnation.<br /><br />There is nothing to say that that's where Taim gets his information on the power. It has (I think) been fairly conclusively argued in the past that he was trained by Ishamael, in one of his semi-free intervals. That was when he nurtured the BA too. (Also Taim has held off the madness for 15 years - only known to be possible by being protected by the DO, so for him to have been taught by Ishamael is not only plausible, but very likely.)<br /><br />There is no evidence for any other male chaneller getting information from a past life (unless you count Arangar and Osangar, and that was resurrection in a new body, not reincarnation).


created: 2005-08-02 18:27:17
subject: <b>While it certainly looks...</b>
body:
Like Taim is not taking orders from any one, you have to remember the fact that after Demandred ordered Rand killed, THEN Taim did as if on a seperate order, THEN Moridin showed up and said it was okay to kill Rand, but not necessary.  So just because Taim gave the order as well as Demandred doesn't mean that they are ordering on a seperate level.  It could be quite simply that Demandred ordered Taim to have Rand killed, and since the attack in Cairhien got bungled, wanted to make certain that the traitors got it right this time.  (Remember, he does imply to them that if they fail, they better hope to get killed in the process.)<br />Taim has shown, for the most part, that he CAN be trusted to act on his own initiative, so Demandred does not keep as tight control over him as he does on Masema.  Him showing up at Dumai's Wells was simply blind luck. <br />And while Demandred thinks to himself that he kept his part of the bargin, he &quot;knew&quot; that Mesaana had said that &quot;if everything goes well&quot;, Rand would be in the WT in a few weeks.  For all he knew, she meant the negotiations would work well enough to convince him to go to the WT.  Until the actual kidnapping took place, there was no reason for him to expect it.  And when it failed, he could have allowed that it was simply another BA mistake (since they ARE known for them!).  I mean, Mesaana IS a Chosen after all, so if she &quot;had a hand&quot; in it, it would have worked right?  <br /><br />Other proofs that Taim IS a proxy is the fact that Rand and Perrin have both noticed a change in him (for Rand, the &quot;feel&quot; of his emotions through Saidin; for Perrin, it's his scent) that they BOTH think &quot;No one man changes THAT fast!&quot;  So at times, Taim has the emotions, feel and scent of &quot;more than one man.&quot;  <br /><br />As to acting on his own, Taim DOES have to appear at least somewhat loyal to Rand.  Which means that at times, he may HAVE to act against an order or a plan to make certain he doesn't lose Rand's &quot;semi-trust.&quot;  What good would he be to the Chosen if Rand killed him, or cut him off from the BT and so on?  Just as with Elza, sometimes you've got to go against the one you serve to be able to accomplish the desired goal.  (Remember her qualms about the fact that she would have to face the Chosen at the Cleansing?  But that the Great Lord would understand, since she would be making Rand and the others trust her?  Why would it be true for Elza, but not for Taim?)<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">Marigan<br />Near-sister to A_fan_of_Rolan_dcs<br /><br />Proxylocks <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/wink.gif" border="0" /><br /><br />Loyally Devoted to the great <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/flaminggrin.gif" border="0" /> &quot;Lord of Chaos&quot; <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/devil.gif" border="0" />, Demandred! <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/biggrin.gif" border="0" /><br /><br /></font><p></p>


created: 2007-07-22 22:53:09
subject: <b>I personally doubt it.............</b>
body:
I think Taim is acting on his own accord, but if he's taking orders from someone I would bet on Moridin. The irregularities in most of these theories can be largely explained. Simply put Taim is on his own side. Maybe he is serving the DO, but you can bet he's got his eye on his own interests first and foremost. Taim is going to do what is best for Taim, I'm interested to see what he does not that Saidin is clean.


created: 2007-11-06 08:51:13
subject: <b>Demandred is not associated with the Asha'man</b>
body:
In the battle at Shadar Logoth (WH: With the Choedan Kal), Demandred does not recognise Damer Flinn as an Asha'man, even though he is wearing his black coat. So therefore Demandred cannot have anything to do with the Black Tower, because if he did he would have known what the black coat meant.<br />This means that it was NOT Demandred who ordered the rebel Asha'man, and Taim cannot be his proxy. Indeed, it indicates that he is working somewhere away from Rand's influence, where he has not seen Asha'man.


created: 2005-01-03 07:45:36
subject: <b>what, no evidence?</b>
body:
Am I to believe these hypotheses without evidence?  I think that is called faith, and apparently I am not that faithful...


created: 2005-01-03 09:27:43
subject: <b>Huh??/</b>
body:
This theory seems to be more grasping at straws than anything viable.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1"><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/rand.gif" border="0" /> <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/mat.gif" border="0" /> <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/perrin.gif" border="0" /><br />I don't fail. I succeed in finding what doesn't work. <br /><br /><font color="00ff33">Official Sponsor of the Melindhra Fan Club</font></font><p><a href="http://www.illwillpress.com" target="_blank">Feel the Squirley Wrath!!!!</a></p><p></p>


created: 2005-01-03 09:40:34
subject: <b>I also think it's a bit thin for a theory.</b>
body:
To your first point:<br />When did RJ state that LTT is a Hero of the Horn? What did he say?<br /><br />Never heard this, and I even doubt it, because it's said that the Heroes shall fight at the side of the Dragon in the Last Battle, not that the Dragon is a Hero himself. <br /><br />I also don't think that Rand will be turned to the Shadow.<br />Actually, I believe it's rather likely that Ishy lied when he said that Rand fought for the Shadow in the past (or the DO told Ishy this lie).<br /><br />Because in the end of TGH, ch.47, Rand is suddenly convinced of this as well:<br />'Rand felt a calmness beyond that of the void. &quot;I will never serve you, Father of Lies. In a thousand lives, I never have. I know that. I'm sure of it. Come. It is time to die.&quot;'<br /><br />I rather trust Rand than Ishy.


created: 2005-01-03 11:17:15
subject: <b>Jordan does say that the Dragon is a Hero</b>
body:
Light in the Night posted this transcript from a book signing:<br /><br />http://www.wotmania.com/wotmessageboardshowmessage.asp?MessageID=165595<br />


created: 2005-01-03 12:25:32
subject: <b>Well, what RJ said contradicts your theory anyway...</b>
body:
He said the the Dragon's soul is spun out in other Ages in non-Dragon form. But in the current Age his soul was already out. That means your line &quot;Lews Therin was called back from the grave the first time Mat sounded the Horn of Valere&quot; is wrong.<br /><br />Besides, I don't get it that he is the Hero of the Horn in sense that he is called in some Ages by whoever sounds the Horn. It would be kinda stupid for the Pattern to allow the Horn to be sound when there are no Dragon and no Banner. What RJ said is the LTT soul is &quot;one of the Heroes&quot;. That means to me that his soul may be resting in TAR along with Heroes. That he is spun out in non-Dragon form to suit the Pattern. It doesn't mean he is called by the Horn. He is bound to the Horn, but he is never called by the Horn.<br />


created: 2005-01-03 14:00:38
subject: <b>Eh..</b>
body:
Maybe i totally remember it wrong, but didn't hawkwing &amp; co say to rand something like that it was good to see him (as in LTT) again, as in rand = LTT, i don't think that LTT can be rand AND be &quot;called from tha grave&quot; by the horn...<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">.~*Steeffie*~.<br /></font><p></p>


created: 2005-01-03 15:47:23
subject: <b>That's really weird!</b>
body:
I ... hmmm.<br /><br />I don't <i>like</i> the idea that Rand will be captured/collared - while I agree that one theme of the series is people not learning from the past, I'd rather not see that again.<br /><br />But, well, if it helps Rand get over that thing about killing women, what with Semirhage probably there...<br /><br />However, the idea should Rand be forcibly turned and Lews Therin remain for the Light, the two struggling for control - <i>that</i> is incredibly interesting.  I hadn't thought of that.<br /><br />A few neat ideas in here!<br /><br />Branwhin <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/aessedai.gif" border="0" />


created: 2005-01-03 17:44:38
subject: <b>Of course...</b>
body:
It is just as likely that one of these days LTT will win the battle to seize Saidin and/or take over Rand's body.  If that happens prior to &quot;Rand&quot; being turned by a circle of 13, wouldn't LTT turn bad and Rand be the good voice in the head?  That way the Dragon (LTT) could &quot;die&quot; at TG and Rand could live on.<br /><br />Yay.<br /><br /><br />TFK


created: 2005-01-10 10:29:04
subject: <b>Is this a theory??</b>
body:
This looks more like &quot;Fan-fiction&quot; than a theory... Nice reading, though <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/smile.gif" border="0" /><br /><br /><br /><font size="-1"><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/perplexed.gif" border="0" /> <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/smackhead.gif" border="0" /> <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/rant.gif" border="0" /> <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/approve.gif" border="0" /><br /><br /><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/aessedai.gif" border="0" /> <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/viking.gif" border="0" /> LLT <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/viking.gif" border="0" /> <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/aessedai.gif" border="0" /></font><p></p>


created: 2005-01-29 18:09:55
subject: <b>Some interesting ideas</b>
body:
Jordan certainly inserted the, &quot;13 Fades weaving through 13 channelers&quot;, as something he plans to use eventually. (If he hasn't already done this to someone. Taim springs to mind.)<br /><br />If he does this to Rand it would be interesting to see if the Heroes of the Horn would be for the Light or the Shadow, something I never thought of myself, but it presents some intrigueing twists to consider.<br /><br />I also agree that Fain will play a pivotal role, as yet undetermined.<br /><br />Not sure I agree about the Pattern tearing in half though. I still believe we will witness a &quot;convergence&quot; of worlds as the barriers between them weaken and fail. We will have to RAFO on this one.<br /><br />Some good ideas, if a little random in and of themselves, but I like to see people &quot;thinking outside the box.&quot;<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">Where once was Shadow<br /> Now reigns <b>Light</b><br /> Darkness fades<br /> <b>In</b>to <b>the Night</b><br /><br />Wotmania's Theory Post has the most!<br />Submit one of your own today <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/jordan.gif" border="0" /><br /><br />Wotmania's richest Wotmaniac!</font><p></p>


created: 2007-07-26 11:15:32
subject: <b>????</b>
body:
Lews Therin wasn't called back by the horn, because Rand is Lews Therin reborn. Just as when Birgitte was pulled from T'A'R, the horn would no longer call her back. Gaidal Cain was born again, so if the horn was blown in the next book he wouldn't be brought back by it. that ruined your whole theory right there.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1"><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/banana.gif" border="0" /> Shara is actually inhabited by bannanas <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/banana.gif" border="0" /><br /><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/bandredhand.gif" border="0" /> The Band of the Red Hand is made of Ninjas like Mat<img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/mat.gif" border="0" /><br />Narg+Bela= Nela!<img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/w00t.gif" border="0" /> <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/narg.gif" border="0" /> ;<img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/bela.gif" border="0" /></font><p></p>


created: 2005-01-04 10:13:05
subject: <b>I LIKE!</b>
body:
I like this idea because it gives the best explanation for the purpose of the Eye that I've seen yet. I makes sense that the AS who made it had some knowledge about what the Last Battle would be like, and created it accordingly as a last resort against the DO. Like Tabula said, the AS would assume the Dragon would find himself in the Blight fighting the DO, then have a moment of utter need and comeupon the Eye. He would need the Horn, the Banner, and the Seal, but most importantly he would need the 100% pure saidin to channel, free of the taint. I think the AS didn't expect that saidin would be cleansed.<br /><br />Makes perfect sense to me.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">Bob L. Sedai (a.k.a. Luge) <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/pharoah.gif" border="0" /><br />Fighting off the Taint - <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/rant.gif" border="0" /> <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/tinfoilhat.gif" border="0" /> <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/rant.gif" border="0" /><br /><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/read.gif" border="0" />Thanks given to Burr, the ever-helpful theory critic<img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/read.gif" border="0" /><br /><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/whitecloak.gif" border="0" />And to Light in the Night, fellow theorist extraordinaire<img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/whitecloak.gif" border="0" /><br /><br />Voted Best Screenname 1 (one) years in a row.</font><p></p>


created: 2005-01-04 13:33:59
subject: <b>Nice theory overall</b>
body:
But I don't agree on some of the last part. Callandor is not flawed. I don't think Cadsuane knows evrything. And certainly she does not know anything about Callandor, except that it's object of Power for the men. There are lot of legends about Callandor created after the Breaking and that is the source of knowledge for Cadsuane - legends. <br /><br />The reason why I don't think Callandor is flawed because nobody from Forsaken lot mentioned that. And they actually were trying to have it for themselves. Like Bel'al. Plus, Lanfear was talking a lot about it to Rand and no flaws were at sight. <br /><br />And suddenly, a few books later, there come Cadsuane who knows everything? I don't think so. She was using it to control Rand. That's the only goal she has right now.


created: 2005-01-04 15:58:27
subject: <b>I like it, too</b>
body:
There has been some recent debate on the MB about who will face Shadar Haran at the Last Battle, since he is able to block the One Power from being sensed. And it has also been bantered about whether the Eye was misused early in the series.<br /><br />It could be that the Eye was a &quot;well&quot; of saidin that Rand might have needed to draw from to battle against Shadar Haran. Just a thought.<br /><br />Good theory. Thumbs up from me.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">Where once was Shadow<br /> Now reigns <b>Light</b><br /> Darkness fades<br /> <b>In</b>to <b>the Night</b><br /><br />Wotmania's Theory Post has the most!<br />Submit one of your own today <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/jordan.gif" border="0" /><br /><br />Wotmania's richest Wotmaniac!</font><p></p>


created: 2005-01-04 16:38:52
subject: <b>me like much</b>
body:
great theory, i really like it because you portray aes sedai as the niave, manipulative cows they truly are!<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1"><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/flaminggrin.gif" border="0" /> let the speedbart ride again upon the winds of time <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/flaminggrin.gif" border="0" /><br /><br />Made the second post on the new WoTMB2 <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/approve.gif" border="0" /></font><p></p>


created: 2005-01-04 19:31:43
subject: <b>I had much the same thoughts myself already</b>
body:
But its good to see it in a well written theory, something I could never do <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/wink.gif" border="0" /><br /><br />Good job <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/smile.gif" border="0" /><br /><br /><br /><font size="-1"><i>CW</i></font><p></p>


created: 2005-01-04 22:44:48
subject: <b>Splendid</b>
body:
A beautiful theory and a sound premise.  Most likely, it is right, and I agree whole-heartedly.  But only the Creator knows for sure.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">One day I'll have a quote to put you all to shame.</font><p></p>


created: 2005-01-05 19:27:14
subject: <b>Very nice theory</b>
body:
This brings up the question of when Callandor was made.  Clearly before the Breaking &quot;proper,&quot; because it was in the Hall of the Servants in your quote.  But was it made as a weapon during the War of Power, or as a result of the Aes Sedai's foretelling?<br /><br />To Skeeve, the Forsaken wouldn't have cared whether or not Callandor was flawed.  If Rand submitted to the DO, like Ishamael says in TGH, &quot;I am yours, Great Lord,&quot; then presumably he would recieve the black cords.  Then such flaws wouldn't matter.  Lanfear certainly wouldn't care either, because (A) she could link with Rand and control the flows, which would be very like her, or (B) Rand would have the black cords.  Be'lal's got the cords, too, so it doesn't really matter.<br /><br />I really enjoyed this theory, and I certainly agree that the Eye was misused.  I think you did a good job of explaining the Eye and Horn's purpose.


created: 2005-01-06 12:01:33
subject: <b>2 AgingComputer</b>
body:
I was referring to the no-buffer flaw, not about the taint. According to Cadsuane, it has no buffer to protect the user. There is no way Cadsuane knows that. Besides, I don't beleive AoL Aes Sedai would create sa'angreal without a buffer. It's like saying that a car mechanic forgets to tie the bolts on the wheels.<br /><br />Thing about Callandor increasing effect of the taint is outrage lie. There is no way she can know that since it was put into the Stone during War of Power. Only she beleives it be true. Or she deducted that since it's powerful sa'angreal and using more Power means using more taint.


created: 2005-01-06 13:48:39
subject: <b>Oh, OK, that flaw</b>
body:
<font size="-1"><b>I was referring to the no-buffer flaw, not about the taint. According to Cadsuane, it has no buffer to protect the user. There is no way Cadsuane knows that. Besides, I don't beleive AoL Aes Sedai would create sa'angreal without a buffer. It's like saying that a car mechanic forgets to tie the bolts on the wheels.</b></font><br /><br />I agree that no AOL AS would be so careless as to forget such an integral part of a sa'angreal.  But Cadsuane had to get the info from somewhere, so it must have been in the mysterious record in the Tower.  I believe that Callandor was created as a result of the Foretelling the AS had in Rand's ancestor's memory.  The only reason for such a lack of &quot;buffer&quot; would be if Callandor was used in conjunction with the Eye, which has a set amount of Power and therefore would be ideally suited to Rand's needs.  Only my pet theory, of course.  The writer of the document could have just been wrong (since there is no record anywhere of actual text from the AOL, even the &quot;Strike&quot; was written post-Breaking, probably by a secondhand source).


created: 2005-01-06 16:48:33
subject: <b>Explanation for the flaw in Callandor</b>
body:
Creating powerful sa'angreals like Callandor probably takes time and several stages. (Look at the BWOB's description of how the Choedan Kal for a hint.) As I recall the passage in the Hall of The Servants from TSR, Rand's ancestor didn't recognize Callandor, which indicates to me that Callandor was created at the very end of the war. If the buffer is the last part that's &quot;installed&quot;, it's quite possible the Breaking interrupted the construction process.


created: 2005-01-08 18:27:21
subject: <b>nice but</b>
body:
i thought you could use the eye of the world anywhere. it was just the fact that morrane sent them to the last place she new she could find it which was where she found it. i always thought that if the need was great enough he would appear... not just apear in the blight


created: 2005-01-14 23:44:07
subject: <b>Nice Job in General</b>
body:
Nice thought, but remember that finding the Nym only at need applies only to the Green Man with the horn. Others of the Nym, pre War of Power, were everywhere, so the idea that they could only be found at need being a part of them when they were created does not fit, it had to be something specifically done for hiding the Horn.


created: 2005-01-15 21:16:23
subject: <b>Buffer</b>
body:
Another possible explanation for the lack of buffer on Callandor could be that the Aes Sedai knew that the Dragon Reborn would need more Power than can be drawn through it safely. With the survival of Choaedan Kal access keys in doubt, Callandor was the next best bet for the Dragon to battle the Dark One. However, it would almost certainly be woefully inadequate for the task. Like Eldrene, who destroyed the Trollocs invading Manetheren by drawing too much of saidar, the Dragon could draw massive amounts of saidin through Callandor, perhaps as much as could be drawn safely through the Choedan Kal, and battle the Dark One.<br /><br />If the Dragon happened to die while doing so, what of it? The Prophecies state several times that the Dragon sacrifices himself for the salvation of mankind.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">Who can deny a Fremen the right to walk or ride where he wills?<br />      -Dune<br /><br /><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/jawa.gif" border="0" /></font><p></p>


created: 2005-03-06 12:12:12
subject: <b>me liky!</b>
body:
hehe face to belly!<br />hahahahahahahhaahahahahahahehehehehehehehehehehehehehohohohohohohohohohohahahahaahahahahaheheheheheheheheheheeheheheh! *snort, snuffle, gulp for air* hehehehehehehehehhahahahahahahahahhahohohohohohehehehehehehehehehehohohohohohahahahahaheheheheheohohohohohohohahahahaahhehehehehehehehhohohohhohahahahahahahahahaheheheheheheehheheehehehheheheeheh! <br /><br /><br /><br />i like the theory too. lol.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">&quot;Surprising what you can dig out of books if you read long enough, isn't it?&quot; -- Rand Al'Thor<br /><br />&quot;I of course have zero evidence for this, but since when has that stopped any of us?&quot; -- David Wren-Hardin <br /><br />Oh, transatlantic Love!<br /></font><p></p>


created: 2005-03-30 16:47:59
subject: <b>I like Most of it</b>
body:
I have to say i def like the explanation for the purpose of the eye.  I never belived it was there for the purpose it ended up being used for.  Always seemed too great a sacrifice to make for the end use in the end, and i have always felt the maybe the D.O. won that round.  I mean in the end he got is his little forsaken back and the eye was blinded but....  Anyway i also must half agree with callandor and the lack of filter.  It sound very A.S. like.  Something stikes me off about the theory as a whole but i can't figure out what so for now i say good job i like it.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1"><br /><br />Respond to PR, react with force. yup, definitely American -Fyatuk<br /><br /><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/lightsaber-blue.gif" border="0" /> Sce`ce of Mighty Slayer of the Ninja Monkeys <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/lightsaber-blue.gif" border="0" /><br /><br /><br />Charter Memeber- NANOUS<br /><br /></font><p></p>


created: 2009-03-19 13:21:03
subject: <b>years later but....</b>
body:
in response to someone above, the forsaken woul dnot have mentioned the flaw in callandor since there was no way that they would know about it. this scene happened after lews therin et al resealed the bore, therefore, the forsaken are also resealed. the sword was created afterwards.<br /><br />that's all i have to say. <img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/smile.gif" border="0" /><br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">&quot;It's ridiculous to suggest that a team could go through a season in our league without losing. It's comical, just comical.&quot; Alex Ferguson 27th September 2002<br /><br />gooner...red and white army...<br /><br /><br /><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/gimli.gif" border="0" /> my soulmate<br /><img src="http://www.msu.edu/~mackertm/wotmania/images/clown.gif" border="0" /> my nemesis</font><p></p>


created: 2005-01-05 11:05:49
subject: <b>Very nice!</b>
body:
Certainly make a lot of sense. One problem though. If the Eye supposed to be used as clean saidin to re-seal DO, then it means the old seals should be intact, or at least not destroyed, because one of them is in the bottom of the Eye. What should happen to that seal if the DO prison is re-sealed? Wouldn't the surviving old seal prevent from it?


created: 2005-01-05 12:17:25
subject: <b>I don't know...</b>
body:
I am confused as to a couple of points you raise.<br /><br />First, are you claiming that Rand could not have cleansed Saidin if Shadar Logoth had not existed?  If so, I'm not sure I buy that.  I always regarded Shadar Logoth as just a convenient dumping place -- killing 2 birds with 1 stone, so to speak.  Especially since the Aes Sedai who made the Eye cleansed some Saidin somehow without Shadar Logoth.  I could be wrong, however.<br /><br />Second, if I'm one of these brilliant Aes Sedai planning this whole time-capsule-to-save-the-world business, I'd put an instruction manual in it.  (And maybe a 6-year-old to read and use it, like programming VCRs)  This would have been prudent if they truly were creating the Eye to hedge against future use.<br /><br />Third, I've always been under the impression that the DO (through Moridin) directed the Forsaken to combat Rand at the Cleansing because the Taint was his (i.e., the Man's) way of keeping male channelers down.  But your suggestion is interesting, especially as to why Balthy and Aggy got treated so (comparatively) well for their failure.<br /><br />Fourth, if the AoL Aes Sedai could have resealed the Bore with some male channelers of questionable sanity, why wouldn't they have done so?  It's not like male channelers would get any safer to work with in the future.  Quite the opposite, I would imagine.<br /><br />Fifth, according to this theory, Rand's cleansing of Saidin eliminates any consequences of having wasted the Eye in TEOTW.  RJ has told us that the time is coming to pay the piper for a major mistake somebody made.  Many, if not most, have assumed that mistake to be using the Eye to early.  If that is the case, there does not appear to be a downside to Rand's having done so.<br /><br />Anyway, those are my chief issues with this post.  <br /><br />Interesting how we've had a spurt of theories on the end times (of WOT, anyway).<br /><br /><br />TFK


created: 2005-01-05 13:28:52
subject: <b>Agree with the Fisher</b>
body:
though Im not so attached to the Eye = Gasp camp.<br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">Where did these Skimmers come from?  I mean if they didn't want to read the book they could have just Traveled to another author.  Why risk arriving at the wrong destination?  Why risk falling into darkness?</font><p></p>


created: 2005-01-05 15:49:44
subject: <b>Great theory.</b>
body:
It re-enforces some ot the ideas I had already.<br /><br /> And, to TFK:<br /><br /><font size="-1"><b>I am confused as to a couple of points you raise. </b></font><br /><br />I won&#8217;t make disparaging remarks here, though you beg for it&#8230;<br /><br /><font size="-1"><b>First, are you claiming that Rand could not have cleansed Saidin if Shadar Logoth had not existed? If so, I'm not sure I buy that. I always regarded Shadar Logoth as just a convenient dumping place -- killing 2 birds with 1 stone, so to speak. Especially since the Aes Sedai who made the Eye cleansed some Saidin somehow without Shadar Logoth. I could be wrong, however. </b></font><br /><br />It is my belief (and I could well be way off the mark) that <i>sadin</i> couldn&#8217;t have been cleansed without Shadar Logoth. Shadar Logoth provided the equal &amp; opposite of Newton and various others. I believe the Wheel allowed Shadar Logoth to come about to provide the means to negate the DO&#8217;s counterstroke.<br /><br /><font size="-1"><b>Second, if I'm one of these brilliant Aes Sedai planning this whole time-capsule-to-save-the-world business, I'd put an instruction manual in it. (And maybe a 6-year-old to read and use it, like programming VCRs) This would have been prudent if they truly were creating the Eye to hedge against future use. </b></font><br /><br />I don&#8217;t think that this is required. The Wheel is concerned with self-preservation. It will guide the DR with what needs to be done.<br /><br /><font size="-1"><b>Third, I've always been under the impression that the DO (through Moridin) directed the Forsaken to combat Rand at the Cleansing because the Taint was his (i.e., the Man's) way of keeping male channelers down. But your suggestion is interesting, especially as to why Balthy and Aggy got treated so (comparatively) well for their failure. {QUOTE}<br /><br />Hmmm&#8230;.<br /><br />{QUOTE}Fourth, if the AoL Aes Sedai could have resealed the Bore with some male channelers of questionable sanity, why wouldn't they have done so? It's not like male channelers would get any safer to work with in the future. Quite the opposite, I would imagine. </b></font><br /><br />Because, as he put forth, that would be like sealing a hole with rotting wood.<br /><br /><font size="-1"><b>Fifth, according to this theory, Rand's cleansing of Saidin eliminates any consequences of having wasted the Eye in TEOTW. RJ has told us that the time is coming to pay the piper for a major mistake somebody made. Many, if not most, have assumed that mistake to be using the Eye to early. If that is the case, there does not appear to be a downside to Rand's having done so. </b></font><br /><br />I don&#8217;t think the &#8220;early use&#8221; of the EotW was a mistake. I believe it was forseen by the Wheel &amp; that&#8217;s why Shadar Logoth was allowed to be.<br /><br /><br /><br /><font size="-1">&quot;These guys are special... These are crack soldiers... They are everywhere&#8230;yes, they really have us by our balls here&#8230; Can you get us out of here?&#8221;<br />Zarqawi about 3/504 PIR</font><p></p>


